Dec 12 2007
The science community is going to try and be face saving about this, but if a physics model could not predict the effects of gravity in terms of ANY single observation, anyway at anytime, it would be considered junk. If a biological model or thesis never once was observed in nature – and in fact it was not even right the way a stopped watch can be right twice a day (once digital versions) – it we be tossed in the garbage. So why is it the global warming models predicting pending doom for mankind are not held to even the most primitive requirements of the scientific method? Why is it they produce junk and are fawned over like the teachings of some mystic witch doctor? Money and power come to mind.
It is a question worth pondering as it has now been scientifically PROVEN the climate models used by the man-made global warming fanatics are junk. They can’t even match what we see today, let alone predict the future:
According to a new study on global warming, climate scientists at the University of Rochester, the University of Alabama, and the University of Virginia found that the climate change models based on human influence do not match observed warming.
“This means that the greenhouse effect – while real – is not very important in producing climate change,” he said. “It’s a lot smaller than what the models calculate.”
Singer said the reason why the models “overestimate the effectiveness of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is that the models ignore what are called negative feedbacks which occur in the atmosphere, such as clouds, which reduce the effect of the greenhouse gases.”
“Their models just don’t consider them properly,” he said.
The mystic priests of the Church Of Global Warming are of course not addressing the findings. They just say there are a lot of people who ‘think’ otherwise. Well, a lot of people used to think the earth was flat and the sun revolved around it. BFD.
The point is the models cannot produce what we see today. Put in measured parameters and we should see results close to what happened. Pick and day, week, month or year – the models should come close to replicating what has already occurred. If they can’t – and they cannot – then they are an expensive error generator. If NASA could not predict the trajectory of planets and moons and asteroids with incredible precision we would not be able to sling small robots around these enormous bodies to fly around our solar system. That is the difference between scientific fact and wild theories. The Church Of Global Warming is no different than the Church Of Scientology – no wonder so many people pledge allegiance to both of them. Voodoo science – what will the left think of next??
BTW, this is not the only study to question the models. NASA (the real NASA at Goddard Space Flight Center in MD, not that small offsite location in NY City were the High Priest Hansen hangs out) has produced a study showing the global warming climate models, like the one Hansen uses, are not accurately reflecting the water vapor feedback loop.
A NASA-funded study found some climate models might be overestimating the amount of water vapor entering the atmosphere as the Earth warms. Since water vapor is the most important heat-trapping greenhouse gas in our atmosphere, some climate forecasts may be overestimating future temperature increases.
Ken Minschwaner, a physicist at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, N.M., and Andrew Dessler, a researcher with the University of Maryland, College Park, and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md, did the study. It is in the March 15 issue of the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. The researchers used data on water vapor in the upper troposphere (10-14 km or 6-9 miles altitude) from NASA’s Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS).
Their work verified water vapor is increasing in the atmosphere as the surface warms. They found the increases in water vapor were not as high as many climate-forecasting computer models have assumed. “Our study confirms the existence of a positive water vapor feedback in the atmosphere, but it may be weaker than we expected,” Minschwaner said.
“One of the responsibilities of science is making good predictions of the future climate, because that’s what policy makers use to make their decisions,” Dessler said. “This study is another incremental step toward improving those climate predictions,” he added.
The Church Of Global Warming is discovering their are heretics in the science community. My guess is they will want to burn them at the stake for their defiance of the Church’s own mandated dogma.
Pope Benedict XVI has launched a surprise attack on climate change prophets of doom, warning them that any solutions to global warming must be based on firm evidence and not on dubious ideology.
The leader of more than a billion Roman Catholics suggested that fears over man-made emissions melting the ice caps and causing a wave of unprecedented disasters were nothing more than scare-mongering.
The German-born Pontiff said that while some concerns may be valid it was vital that the international community based its policies on science rather than the dogma of the environmentalist movement.
This is not really a surprise. The fact is resources and energy wasted on useless attempts to lower carbon dioxide emission takes this resource away from the needy. CO2 accounts for only 3% of the green house gases, so changing its current production by even 30% will have no measurable effect. But following this path will cost billions, if not more, and impact the quality of life of the most needy among us. The rich will still have their jets and SUVs – make no mistake about it. And I am sure the Pope is aware of this.
Update: An old link from Sister Toldjah reminded me of this previous post with the stunning news on how the UN had to pull back (again) from its dire predictions and adjust down the impact man has on the global climate last year:
Mankind has had less effect on global warming than previously supposed, a United Nations report on climate change will claim next year.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says there can be little doubt that humans are responsible for warming the planet, but the organisation has reduced its overall estimate of this effect by 25 per cent.
The panel, however, has lowered predictions of how much sea levels will rise in comparison with its last report in 2001.
Climate change sceptics are expected to seize on the revised figures as evidence that action to combat global warming is less urgent.
The “wolf” criers at the Church Of Global Warming were asking for a Mulligan? I bet you they ask for another soon! They cried “fire” in a crowded theory because of their own hysterical imaginations – not based on scientific fact. They deserve to be ridiculed for making wild claims that now even THEY admit were over the top.