Dec 12 2007
Climate Models Used By Global Warming Fanatics Are Junk
The science community is going to try and be face saving about this, but if a physics model could not predict the effects of gravity in terms of ANY single observation, anyway at anytime, it would be considered junk. If a biological model or thesis never once was observed in nature – and in fact it was not even right the way a stopped watch can be right twice a day (once digital versions) – it we be tossed in the garbage. So why is it the global warming models predicting pending doom for mankind are not held to even the most primitive requirements of the scientific method? Why is it they produce junk and are fawned over like the teachings of some mystic witch doctor? Money and power come to mind.
It is a question worth pondering as it has now been scientifically PROVEN the climate models used by the man-made global warming fanatics are junk. They can’t even match what we see today, let alone predict the future:
According to a new study on global warming, climate scientists at the University of Rochester, the University of Alabama, and the University of Virginia found that the climate change models based on human influence do not match observed warming.
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“This means that the greenhouse effect – while real – is not very important in producing climate change,” he said. “It’s a lot smaller than what the models calculate.”
Singer said the reason why the models “overestimate the effectiveness of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is that the models ignore what are called negative feedbacks which occur in the atmosphere, such as clouds, which reduce the effect of the greenhouse gases.”
“Their models just don’t consider them properly,” he said.
The mystic priests of the Church Of Global Warming are of course not addressing the findings. They just say there are a lot of people who ‘think’ otherwise. Well, a lot of people used to think the earth was flat and the sun revolved around it. BFD.
The point is the models cannot produce what we see today. Put in measured parameters and we should see results close to what happened. Pick and day, week, month or year – the models should come close to replicating what has already occurred. If they can’t – and they cannot – then they are an expensive error generator. If NASA could not predict the trajectory of planets and moons and asteroids with incredible precision we would not be able to sling small robots around these enormous bodies to fly around our solar system. That is the difference between scientific fact and wild theories. The Church Of Global Warming is no different than the Church Of Scientology – no wonder so many people pledge allegiance to both of them. Voodoo science – what will the left think of next??
BTW, this is not the only study to question the models. NASA (the real NASA at Goddard Space Flight Center in MD, not that small offsite location in NY City were the High Priest Hansen hangs out) has produced a study showing the global warming climate models, like the one Hansen uses, are not accurately reflecting the water vapor feedback loop.
A NASA-funded study found some climate models might be overestimating the amount of water vapor entering the atmosphere as the Earth warms. Since water vapor is the most important heat-trapping greenhouse gas in our atmosphere, some climate forecasts may be overestimating future temperature increases.
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Ken Minschwaner, a physicist at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, N.M., and Andrew Dessler, a researcher with the University of Maryland, College Park, and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md, did the study. It is in the March 15 issue of the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. The researchers used data on water vapor in the upper troposphere (10-14 km or 6-9 miles altitude) from NASA’s Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS).
Their work verified water vapor is increasing in the atmosphere as the surface warms. They found the increases in water vapor were not as high as many climate-forecasting computer models have assumed. “Our study confirms the existence of a positive water vapor feedback in the atmosphere, but it may be weaker than we expected,” Minschwaner said.
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“One of the responsibilities of science is making good predictions of the future climate, because that’s what policy makers use to make their decisions,” Dessler said. “This study is another incremental step toward improving those climate predictions,” he added.
The Church Of Global Warming is discovering their are heretics in the science community. My guess is they will want to burn them at the stake for their defiance of the Church’s own mandated dogma.
Update: The Church of Christ is taking on the Church of Gore:
Pope Benedict XVI has launched a surprise attack on climate change prophets of doom, warning them that any solutions to global warming must be based on firm evidence and not on dubious ideology.
The leader of more than a billion Roman Catholics suggested that fears over man-made emissions melting the ice caps and causing a wave of unprecedented disasters were nothing more than scare-mongering.The German-born Pontiff said that while some concerns may be valid it was vital that the international community based its policies on science rather than the dogma of the environmentalist movement.
This is not really a surprise. The fact is resources and energy wasted on useless attempts to lower carbon dioxide emission takes this resource away from the needy. CO2 accounts for only 3% of the green house gases, so changing its current production by even 30% will have no measurable effect. But following this path will cost billions, if not more, and impact the quality of life of the most needy among us. The rich will still have their jets and SUVs – make no mistake about it. And I am sure the Pope is aware of this.
Update: An old link from Sister Toldjah reminded me of this previous post with the stunning news on how the UN had to pull back (again) from its dire predictions and adjust down the impact man has on the global climate last year:
Mankind has had less effect on global warming than previously supposed, a United Nations report on climate change will claim next year.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says there can be little doubt that humans are responsible for warming the planet, but the organisation has reduced its overall estimate of this effect by 25 per cent.
The panel, however, has lowered predictions of how much sea levels will rise in comparison with its last report in 2001.
Climate change sceptics are expected to seize on the revised figures as evidence that action to combat global warming is less urgent.
The “wolf” criers at the Church Of Global Warming were asking for a Mulligan? I bet you they ask for another soon! They cried “fire” in a crowded theory because of their own hysterical imaginations – not based on scientific fact. They deserve to be ridiculed for making wild claims that now even THEY admit were over the top.
A couple of things they are just learning is that there is a huge amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Yes, it cycles in and out, but at any given instant there is a huge amount in the atmosphere. There is MUCH more of it than there is CO2. It is a much greater greenhouse gas than CO2. So much so that if you doubled CO2 you would have negligible impact on total greenhouse of the atmosphere. And … a traditional greenhouse works by suppressing convection. Our atmosphere doesn’t. If air warms, it will rise and lose the heat. Unlike hitting the glass ceiling of a greenhouse, warm air will continue to rise until it can no longer rise above the air around it and cools to the same temperature.
Water is a complex item in these models. It is also the working fluid for a natural convection refrigeration system. When water evaporates it takes a HUGE amount of heat with that water as it rises. When it condenses in a cloud, it releases that heat at great altitude … above most of the atmospheric CO2.
These guys have been looking at the climate and trying to make a model that follows. The problem is that they are starting to wise up to the fact that there has been no North American warming since 1998 and no Southern Hemisphere warming at all in the 20th century. Their models are wrong. Now they have to explain why. They are laying the groundwork for being able to weasel out of the global warming hysteria.
Let me say one more time. I speak from personal knowledge because I was on the board of directors of a national “Environmental” Organization when the left over militant radical activists from the 60’s “Peace” and Civil Rights” movements ,who organized and run most national dissident organizations, made the decision to concentrate their organizational efforts on the Environment because they were sure that they could unite and manipulate more people behind saving the planet and it’s environment than any other cause. They began turning our pseudo scientific reports, signed by people with Phd’s in such fields as Psychology, Religion, etc. to make it look like top sceintists agreed with their claims which were designed to scare people into joining ranks with them to demand that our government be changed to their Liking. They now declare, and it has become an accepted fact by most simi literate graduates of the US educational system, that the normal changes in weather cycles are proof that man is destroying his habitat.
Their number one goal is to reduce the earth’s population to 2 billion people because they believe that Malthus was right when he preached that the earth could sustain only 2 billion people back in the 1800’s . Since we now have more than 6 billion people on earth, they are determined to eliminate 4 billion of us to save us all from self destruction. This is the reason they no longer talk about Green House gasses, but now, CO2 or carbon dioxide, is touted as the big problem. In case you people aren’t aware of it. Man inhales oxygen and exhales carbon dioxide. Plants take in Carbon dioxide and give off oxygen. That is called the balance of nature. The real purpose of this latest hysteria is to justify the elimination of 2/3 of the world’s population. And guess who they want to get rid of first? Why it’s us white Anglo Saxon Christian devils who have meekly allowed outselves to be blamed for all the world’s ills.
Unless we stop cowering like frightened abused women and defend ourselves and our way of life, you can be sure of one thing. We will be the first to be genocided from the face of the earth. We have already allowed these nut cases to convince our women it’s their right and duty to abort one out of every three of our citizens before they are born, which has created a less than zero population growth. To make up for our declining population, we now are told we must accept millions of “workers” from third world countries, who will fulfill thier prophsy that our environment will be degraded and our way of life destroyed.
I dont’ know about you guys but I am like the Unsinkable Molly Brown. I’m not buying their line of Bullsh– because I ain’t ready to die yet.
AJ,
I stopped counting he word errors a three.