It is Christmas and many people rethink their lives and plans around this time of year. And many people switch paths all year long. And so some Reuters reporters have a story out today creating a myth for the gullible that there is massive self deportation of illegal aliens:

The couple are among a growing number of illegal immigrants across the United States who are starting to pack their bags and move on as a crackdown on undocumented immigrants widens and the U.S. economy slows, turning a traditional Christmas trek home into a one-way trip.

Sounds wonderful doesn’t it? The article outlines a handful of hardworking, law abiding families who have decided to go back to their homes south of the border. It lays out a wonderful premise that are shrinking economy and pressures on employers is going to force the 12-20 million illegals to simply pack up and leave! How so very convenient.

Don’t get me wrong, I would love for a fantasy like that to come true. But the story never once quantifies the exodus out of country. Not one reference to the numbers and if they even begin to offset the influx. We see words like ‘spike’ to give the impression there is a massive change – but a spike can also be a ten percent increase and it could be temporary.

I noticed many strange things about this story besides the fact it will not produce numerical evidence (something it would do it there were any or if it looked stronger than what they have). I noticed the folks leaving are the one acclimated to our culture. They are hard working and appear to be value-added members of the community. They are leaving because they can. What the story doesn’t address is that all we will have, if this continues, is more and more of newcomers isolated from our society and fewer of these bridge groups to help acclimate and guide them.

The story would be a positive sign to me if it could demonstrate that this exodus is large enough to actually reduce the illegal immigration population. My expectations it is not large enough to even slow the growth of that population very much – but it should have laid that out clearly. Because this is the kind of ‘it’s OK, we can work this under existing laws’ garbage that left violent criminal immigrants on our streets. And my suspicion is this exodus doesn’t include the violent criminal element we wanted out of here. If not, then all we are doing is losing the hard workers and getting the violent killers in return. And if this is the case any conservative who cheers this result is just demonstrating why emotion should never drive policy – it just makes bad situations worse. There is no way the problem is going to go away without any effort on our part and coming out smelling like roses. If it sounds too good to be true…..

Addendum: I want to make sure I am clear why the math needs to add up – it is a daunting mathematical reality. First off, there are between 400,000-700,000 new illegals coming into the country each year. Fences may help, but many illegals start off legal and simply overstay their visas. So let’s just us the lower number to be conservative. For the illegal immigration population in the US to hold steady (the self-deportation numbers equaling the current influx) would mean 400,000 illegals leaving each year – or about 1100 leaving per day. Is this what the reporting is showing? Who knows – I doubt it.

But now lets say we expect all 20 million illegals in the country to be gone in a decade by this process (a ridiculously short time frame). For that to happen then the 1100 per going through self deportation would have to jump by an additional 5500 per day – for ten years solid. Are we seeing anywhere near 6600 self-deportations per day? Again, who knows! The article doesn’t have any data to back up its claims. Which is why I am fairly sure this is just a myth for the desperate and gullible to feel good about.

Addendum: BTW – the US economy is not slowing down as indicated by the third quarter numbers. And the purchase power of the dollar in Central and South America is still many times higher than the local currency (in Argentina the US dollar is 3 times that of the Argentinean currency), which means the modest gains the Euro is making against the dollar will not make it economically smart to give up the dollars being sent south, unless you have a high paying Euro job to go to.

If someone is going to postulate a theory its helps if it can past the laugh test. Anyone believe giving up a $30K per year job here in the US would be smart, financially, for the same job in Bolivia or Brazil?