I have been saying for months the final operations against al-Qaeda will take place in the tribal regions of Northern Pakistan along the border with Afghanistan.

This is the birth place of the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and it is their last large sanctuary on Earth now that they are being pushed out of Iraq, Lebanon, Algieria and were unable to create a toe-hold in any other Arab-Muslim country (including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt which they tried to attack).

Walid Phares has a must read history lesson and tutorial on al-Qaeda and Pakistan, which provides the context for the coming final battles with al-Qaeda:

The long-term plan of the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan during the 1990s was to eventually spread to Pakistan and seize power and ultimately, after 1999, to seize Pakistan’s nukes, too. Miscalculating on September 11th, Osama bin Laden lost Kabul and the Jihadi war room crossed over to their eastern neighbor. Plan B was then to seize Waziristan and gradually Talibanize the country, grabbing the “doomsday” devices in the end.

For the last seven years the Jihadi hydra, protected by the fundamentalist tribes and hooking up with the local Islamist movements (digging their tentacles deep inside the defense and intelligence apparatus), attempted to spread in that direction.

…

By 2006, Mr. Musharraf was fighting on two fronts: taking on the Jihadi forces (including the homegrown ones) on the one hand, and dealing with the pressures from his secular opposition on the other. From early 2007, as Taliban operatives based in enclaves in the border areas continued to strike inside Afghanistan, al Qaeda’s messages and violence beaming out of Pakistan were unrestrained.

…

The return of Mrs. Bhutto to Pakistan sent a positive message to the public – and a negative one to the radical Islamists. The daughter of a prominent leader, a member of a political family, a former prime minister in her own right and, above all, a liberal Muslim woman, Mrs. Bhutto projected the possibility of a leap toward more balanced politics and greater steps toward pluralism — two ingredients for progress toward democracy.

…

The prospect of the January elections was good for all parties. The president would be proving that his institutions are solidly democratic, thus legitimizing his own office. The opposition would gain the seats it needed to access the cabinet or become powerbrokers at the assembly. Mrs. Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party was projected to be the largest bloc. And, through a coalition in parliament, she was to become the next prime minister of this powerful Muslim country. That is precisely why she was murdered.

As I said a must-read tutorial. What is not written is the final chapter. But we can see the foreshadowing of its contents. Pakistan has 90,000 troops surrounding the Islamists areas of control in the tribal areas. Fighting has erupted there in Swat, South Waziristan and the Kurram Agency over the last few months – always involving new foreign fighters (probably fresh from their retreat from Iraq). NATO and the US and Afghan forces are along the border. And now US Forces are expected to increase their presence in Pakistan to ‘train’ and go after select targets (there is no better way to teach than through example).

The fact is the last battle was always going to be at the heart of the terrorist enclaves, just as the last battles in Europe at the end of WW II were in and around Berlin. Jihadis fight to the end, so they can meet Allah as martyrs. The general outline of the last chapter is not hard to predict, we are just waiting to see the details as history plays out before our eyes.