Addendum Below

It seems I may have been right about the mood of the country – it wants change in DC. And I still think it wants to reject the hyper-partisans on both sides and is heading towards the middle of the political spectrum. Obama has a really slick centrist pitch. I don’t believe half he says out of experience with Dems, but that means nothing. I did not believe Reagan meant what he said either – and left the Democrat party when I found out he was serious and his detractors were making up wild and baseless claims.

But my personal ancient history is not the point, Obama sounds centrist and he drew the numbers to prove that out. Edwards was the far left candidate and he tied Clinton (another far left candidate) for second. And looking again at the GOP side, you add up the tallies for Romeny, McCain, Giuliani and you get a number much larger than Huckabee’s numbers. I can never decide whether to put Thompson in the moderate category or not, but if you do add him in the centrist vote swamped the GOP race as well.

What is a concern is the massive increase in participation on the Dem side, they nearly doubled their numbers, while the GOP only saw a small (yet record setting) increase in support of the caucuses:

With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Iowa Democratic Party officials reported 234,000 caucus attendees, compared to 124,000 in 2004. With 93 percent of GOP precincts reporting, 112,349 Republicans had participated in their caucus, up from the 87,666 who participated in 2000.

Let me put those into percentage increases for folks, even though they come from two different election cycles. The dems increased turn out by a whopping 89% in 4 years, while the GOP increased theirs by only 28% in 8 years. We don’t have GOP numbers from 2004 because they did not hold caucuses, but the numbers are pathetic. If you average the increase over the period you see 22%/year increase for the dems and 3.5%/year for the GOP. Of course this shift did not happen across all the years equally, but the numbers are still disturbing.

But here is another number that is also worrisome: in a state which is something like 95% white the GOP turn out was a measly 48% that of the democrats. That is not a 50-50 split. That is a 30-60 split, with the GOP on the losing side. Given the GOPs abysmal record with minorities, added to a probable minority nominee by the Dems, the GOP is in a world of hurt. And they limp out of Iowa at each others’ throats – as Ed Rollins so aptly demonstrated on Fox News last night.

Here’s the problem, nobody allies with people who denigrate them over differences of opinions. You call people RINO’s they go someplace else where they are welcome and respected. Michael Savage was just lick-spittle ranting last night about the ‘cretins’ who support comprehensive immigration reform. Malkin calls those of us who prefer the President’s solution to long term illegal aliens drag queen open borders types (even though the subject of long term illegals is distinct from the border issues and everyone wants tighter borders – classic distraction game). What is the result of all the anger on the right? Purity over unity, which produces minority. These numbers should worry conservatives.

Bin Laden is still popping Champaign in is cave today, because he knows those who would appease him are heading into office and those who want to destroy him are self-destructing as a driving force in America. I never understood the logic that said “let the appeasers win, because I am the better conservative on national security and terrorism”. And I bet Bin Laden is wondering what the hell is happening too. But he is probably planning his resurgence and could care less to why conservatives felt they could destroy their governing coalition on the brink of his defeat.

Addendum: I am beginning to wonder if the GOP is going to attempt to ignore the magnitude of these numbers. A 2-1 edge in turnout for the Dems this year in Iowa. An enormous leap in turnout for the dems over the last couple of election cycles – on the order of 7 times greater over the GOP.

I would have assumed this would be the biggest news of today. In a state that was one of only two to switch to the GOP in 2004 it amazing to see this kind of increase in shear numbers on the Dem side. It has to be a huge warning sign to the GOP that it could be in much worse trouble than in 2006. But I have yet to see any discussions on this in the blogosphere or news – except from Andrew Sullivan who strangely blames the moderate Bush for the hard turn right of the GOP. Very strange indeed.

Addendum: One more point. Like all good theories this one can be tested, and will be in NH and 48 other states. If the trend continues then the GOP will understand what it did to itself. But also note I find it interesting that the bigger states like FL and CA are trending to Rudy – to the center. So I am pretty comfortable in my analysis – at the moment. But things can change (and they can get worse). We shall see Tuesday.