I am going to go out on a big limb here and predict that Jeannine Pirro probably will unseat Hillary. I know, it is a radical, reckless prediction. But I think the stage is set for Hillary to stumble and lose.

I have been predicting a 2006 net gain of +3 seats for the republicans, and the news that District Attorney Pirro will take on Hillary only bolsters that prediction.

Here are the dynamics: you have a democrat party shell shocked by major national losses in the last 3 elections cycles, and now being led by the most liberal national leaders in Pelosi and Dean (who cares about what’s-his-name in the Senate). This will repulse moderates in droves.

You have a democrat party which has the majority of seats to defend and with little hope of picking off any of the republican incumbents or open seats – with the exception of Rick Santorum in PA who is in a tight race. The democrats need to defend Byrd in WV, the Dayton seat in MI, Nelson in FL, Sarbanes seat in MD – all competitive races with very good chances of a Rep pick up. Not to mention WA and NJ.

Protecting this many seats is an expensive proposition (and we have not even delved into the House and Governor races yet). Now we add one of the most expensive media markets in the country with Pirro taking on Hillary. With the democrats’ abysmal fundraising results this year it is clear competitive races in NJ and NY will drain their meager coffers quite rapidly.

That is the national framework, now let’s look at the match up. For one Pirro is one classy, sharp looking women who will attract the women’s vote across the state. She is pro choice, which makes it hard to make her out to be a rightwing zealot. She is less controversial than Hillary and most likley a much more dynamic speaker given her career as a prosecutor. This means she represens an opportunity to return to civil politics – something not associated with the Clintons.

She neutralizes all of Hillary’s postives with equal postives of her own, while Hillary neutralizes all of Pirro’s negatives (her husbands legal problems). Both women have husbands who have skirted the law – which limits any attack by the dems on Pirro, but free’s Pirro to attack the dems if they dare to bring up her family.

Tony Blankely makes the case for my predictions better than I could here.

Democrats and the Hillary folks don’t appear to be worried about re-election, while too many Republicans seem to be willing to give Hillary a pass. They are both wrong in their judgments.

While the junior senator from New York holds an impressive opening poll advantage of 63 percent to 29 percent over Pirro, this is a campaign well worth vigorously fighting. Hillary R. Clinton has nowhere to go but down in her re-election bid — and how far down is yet to be determined.

Moreover, her re-election campaign result will inevitably be seen as either an impressive or not impressive launch of her presidential campaign. Hillary is likely to grow to hate that 63 percent-29 percent advantage she currently holds, because any win much under 60 percent will likely be something of a letdown. Anything under 55 percent will be judged a near disaster — inevitably resulting in the obligatory campaign shake-up just as she enters the 2007 presidential launch. And, of course, if lightning strikes …

This is echoed by Dick Morris here, but he adds some other good points

The Quinnipiac Poll recently found that Hillary beat Pirro by more than 30 percentage points — but in the same poll, 60 percent of the state’s voters said that Mrs. Clinton should pledge to serve out her full term if she runs for the Senate.

Hillary will not make that pledge. She cannot. She either gets to run for the Senate or the Presidency, not both. And that is how the people of New York feel. They also may feel like they did their part to support Hill, and now it is time to move onto the future. A future best represented by Pirro.

Jeanine Pirro is pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-affirmative action, pro-gay-civil unions and pro-immigration. And, of course, she’s a woman.

In a sense, Hillary will have to end up running against someone who is quite like herself in her public positions: Except, of course, Pirro is a good old-fashioned anti-tax, anti-crime, tough-on-terror Republican from the suburbs.

With the debacle of democrats siphoning off Homeland Security Monies in neighboring New Jersey, after McGreevey’ totally disasterous decision to put his boy friend in charge of Homeland Security for the state, there is natural concern the democrats are completely out to lunch. If Sen Clinton does not come out strong against these actions in NJ, threatening Corzine’s chances, she is going to pay the price to the DA from her district.

The good prosecutor will hammer Hillary over and over again about this subject and what she would do about it if it happened in NY. I cannot see Hillary able to withstand a withering debate attack from a prosecutor like Pirro – someone trained in the art of making people unsteady in their responses. Clinton will stumble, probably more than once. She is all facade and vacuous dodges. She is no match for a sharp, intelligent DA who will repeatedly attack Hillary with a gentle smile and calm demeanor. Hillary will lose it, she doesn’t have the self control. That infamous anger wil burst out.

And heaven forbid anything like what happened in NJ happened in NY.