Jan 23 2008
Down To Three In The GOP, We Need Just One To Counter McCain
Update: One Fred Head sees hope in Rudy
OK conservatives, time for a reality check. We have three great men left standing in the election: McCain, Romney, Rudy. Sorry folks, preacher Huckabee is out. Between is comments about showing Iran true Hell and wanting a Christian constitution he is unelectable even in the GOP primaries. He is out of money and fading in Florida which he has decided to skip. The GOP cannot win without FL in the presidential election, so skipping that state is a death knell. He is done.
I know Romney can bankroll his way forward – which is why I think he is a bad choice. I also don’t think he carries well nationally (Rudy and McCain have much better name recognition). I also just don’t think he is the most conservative of the three – Rudy is. Outside the issue of his personal marriages, Rudy has pledged to continue naming constructionist judges to the Federal bench. And he has one helluva good tax cut proposal:
.. Make permanent the bush tax cuts NOW…not in 2010
… Permanently index the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and then eliminate it when practical (no timetable).
… Get rid of the Death Tax
… Lower the capitol gains and dividend rate to 10% and index to inflation. (Here is where he could go further and actually eliminate the capitol gains tax).
… Lower corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%.
… Trio of tax free savings accounts – Roth style – available to ALL income classes.
… Tax simplication strategy – one page tax return
… Three rates – 10% (40k), 15% (150k), and 30% (150k )
What the GOP needs is a strong, charismatic, national hero like John McCain but more conservative. More likely to cut taxes to help this economy instead of raising taxes with the Dems. More likely to keep our enemies in GITMO and try them in military tribunals than bring them here to America and give them taxpayer supported ACLU lawyers. More likely to stay away from the Global Warming Kool Aid until the science is proven and as solid as the science that states the Earth orbits the Sun. That is Rudy, not Romney.
Florida is the best last chance to slow McCain down and win the national election and progress conservative policies and not dismantle all the ones we achieved under George W Bush. McCain becomes problematic on the last goal, Mitt has problems in being a national force like Hillary, McCain, Obama and Rudy. For all his money Romney is just not in the same league, in terms of charisma, as the other three main candidates. He falls more into the Edwards category. And he is also a bit of a weathervane promising big spending and kicking immigrant butt if he feels it will get him votes. Pandering is not a strength.
Jay Costs notes on RCP today how a conservative challenger can still win against McCain in the environment of a brokered convention:
It should be clear from the nomination rules that somebody could find enough delegates to oppose McCain on the convention floor – even if he did not offer a serious challenge early in the process. From the unpledged delegates, to the delegates allocated by conventions, proportional allocation, and the congressional district delegates – there are a lot of ways to win convention support even as somebody else “wins” states. Eventually, an opposition candidate would have to break through with outright victories. He cannot win the Republican nomination underground – but the way delegates are allocated could keep the race close until he breaks through. Importantly, about 65% of South Carolina voters preferred somebody other than John McCain. This tracks with his standing in the national polls. So, the anti-McCain faction might have an audience – if it can find a candidate to rally behind.
To keep the brokered convention alive Rudy needs to win FL. A lot of conservatives have a personal issues with Giuliani, but he has pledged to represent the GOP and not his personal views. I actually find it astonishing and a bit shameful the GOP treats one of the heros of 9-11 like this. McCain is a hero of Vietnam – of a different time in our history. He has spent the last years trying to make the GOP and the country more liberal. Rudy made NY accept conservative policies and moved that state in the ‘right’ direction. America’s mayor deserves a shot and all those in FL (and beyond) who oppose McCain need to stop fantasizing and get a plan together to stop or slow him down. In politics is always comes down to selecting the least bad – we live in a diverse country and none of us get. The Anchoress and I both exist in about the same political sphere. Yesterday she admonished the Mary Poppins conservatives because they are upset they don’t have the perfect candidate to match their perfect world view this year.
I will add to that message. You don’t fight wars with the military you want, you fight them with the military you have. And that goes double for political battles. We need a conservative who can win the nomination, win the election and promote conservative issues. If you vote for anybody else (like Huckabee) you are voting for yourself and not to win the battle for the nation. If McCain wins (and folks know he is perfect for what I want on national defense and immigration) the GOP will never be the same again. I would prefer Rudy over McCain because he is a centrist like me anchored to the broader (not detailed) conservative view. McCain isn’t. But enough McCain supporters see Rudy as a reasonable centrist too that they could form up under Rudy. Even if the hyper-partisan right formed up under Rudy as well.
And that is the core issue – who has the big tent, the broadest appeal. Clearly McCain is not someone the more conservative elements will follow because he has been fighting them for years. Rudy has not been fighting conservatism. He has married a lot and once dressed in a costume (how quickly people forget Halloween and the joys of being young). But he has fought to push conservatism, not repeal it. Right now only the voters in FL can change the dynamic. Rally around Rudy and see what happens. It is better than just letting McCain get a cake walk.
Update: I want to note that a GOP that loses someone like the Anchoress is doing something terribly wrong. I am more than happy to stay outside the party walls as an independent. But when you find strong conservative voices (who won’t echo everything you want) leaving the party or more than happy to stay out it is a sign of problems – not strength or purity. More like decay. Anyway, I liked one other thing the Anchoress noted in her “woodshed” post:
The next president of the United States is already running.
That’s right folks. It is one of the 4-5 remaining viable contenders. It is no one else. So which is best for America (as opposed to personal pet causes)?
Right now, I’m leaning toward Guliani for one reason.
He hasn’t lied to me.
All these guys are center-left candidates. But where McCain is clearly willing to say anything that will get him favorable press, and Romney will say anything that will get him votes, Guliani has honestly confronted his differences with the conservative mainstream. And appears willing to come to open compromise on those differences.
I can live with that. I don’t like it….this is the first time in nearly 30 years that I’ve had to vote for the Lesser Evil…but I can live with it.
BTW, I’m praying fervently for a brokered convention. THERE we have a fighting chance of getting a Bolt From The Blue candidate that can really get the job done.
I know that Jeb Bush has the misfortune to have a brother in the Oval Office, but let’s face facts. He’s a successful two-term governor of a swing state, which is a pretty good qualification. And he comes with a campaign slogan.
“Jeb ’08…A Good Man In A Storm”
If it is Romney who is left to take mccain out, he doesn’t have a chance of winning in Nov. He will be seen as the conservative extremists’ pretty little rich boy who pandered enough to conservatives in order to stop McCain at any cost. More than a little truth to this. Hardly the baggage needed to win a national election which will come down to the true8-10% of independents who will decide it ( the one’s who really do switch between Ds and Rs, not the ones who call themselves Independents because they voted for the other party 10 years ag0) Conservatives are totally misreading these independents who are voting for McCain. They are for all intents and purposes Rs but for one issue or another, don’t register that way. They is McCain’s appeal with them and why they like his maverick status. I would vote for Romney over the alternative but I now have a D as a congressman (after a 20 year R) as a result of such independents.
As I’ve said, I like Guiliani and would vote for him, worts and all but he has created his own problem. While not to the extreme, he expected a coronation like fred and was surprised when he didn’t get it. I’ve always hoped for a McCain/Rudy ticket and am disappointed when people are so quick to rule it out. I like the idea of Rudy riding shot-gun. Will his ego allow it?
Romney will regret his and the conservatives’ treatments of Huckabee. Many evangelicals aren’t natural economic allies of the conservative movement. They are attacted to social conservatism and are suspicious of unbriled market forces. Romney and the conservative movement told them to go to hell. That’s why Romney is unelectable. Thanks you Rush, Hugh Hewlitt, Michelle Malkin, Rich Lowry, Laura Ingraham, etc, etc.
Obviously AJ we see things different here.
I am pragmatic about who will be the eventual winner and it really isn’t all that critical for some to go making those picks this early. Yeah Fl means something but not everything.
If you believe many by the end of Super Tuesday we might as well hold the elections because all the other states don’t count.
You say Mc is your guy on immigration but he is telling the voters he heard them on the rejection of the comprehensive bill and even the fence which he does not want to support.
Huck is a whole different animal here. He doesn’t even need to win another state to do what he wants to do. Doesn’t need much money either. He could totally disappear except for the debates and not even buy an ad in the paper or on tv, since he is carrying the evangelical banner. Their church phone trees will keep him at least in enough money and votes to chug him along into the convention just so they can try to leverage power and deals there. Any body who expects otherwise is not reading what is happening on the ground.
If this goes to a brokered convention, which is the exact 180 out from people even now saying it will be all over after Fl for crying out loud, then we could even have someone pop out who hasn’t gotten a vote or ran anywhere yet those things are wild cards that can have 15 or more ballots before it all gets settled. It is NOT entirely impossible a compromise person could come out of the convention.
Right now there are too many from the middle who have played pick the candidate for the republicans and it won’t change much in Fl either because of the penalty box status of the state and normal historic registration swaps for the primaries. In fact it may even make it worse this time.
I’m glad to see someone else sees Giuliani like I do.
What else do you call a person who imposed morality, dare we call it virtue, on New York City by decreasing crime, halving murders, and removing the porn from Time’s Square, but a conservative?
Sure he’s married 3 times and is wrong on abortion, but if the list of the non-conservative attributes of McCain is at least 3 times longer.
Grumpyguy,
You got it. Of all 3 at least Rudy has promised to fight for GOP principles and not his own views. McCain is just the opposite.
Rich, it really doesn’t matter who we like. We have to look at who would defeat the democrat candidate and actually win. Romney isn’t likely to win so producing him as the nominee is just silly. The candidate who wins will get the most votes across the entire electorate, not just from Republicans.
The individual who is polling highest across the entire electorate right now is Rudy who trails Hillary by only something like 5 points. Rasmussen has the poll.
Here
Sorry…its down to FOUR people still running for the republican nomination, and the missing person has more votes and delegates than one of the ones you did list, and possibly more than two of them.
I think its disrespectful to leave someone out, who has just as many votes as others you include, no matter how much you disagree with their positions.
CP,
Check out Rudy’s 58% unfavorable rating in that poll.
All,
I think some of you are exaggerating Rudy’s electability. He starts out losing about 20% of his Party, then has to make that up with Dems and Undeclareds.
His character goes to how he has treated his wives and children, not just the number of wives. Plus the public expensing of protection for his girl friend.And then there’s the appointment of his driver as police commisioner, without any qualifications. Do we need another tawdry soap opera in the White House?
Those that taut his consistencyon social issues ignore that he is consistently wrong.
What the GOP needs is a strong, charismatic, national hero like John McCain but more conservative.
Charisma. We all know that the MSM loves McCain because he feeds it a steady stream of quotes to use against Pugs. The young view him as a straight talking old grandfather figure. I know there are many vets against him but overall, I think the military/vets see him as one of their own.
Charisma. Even I can see it in Huckabee as he jokes his way across the country.
Rudy………he has it but someone needs to seriously be working on it with him. He needs to unleash.
Romney does not have it. That simple and the reason he will not win a national election. He could be the perfect candidate that we all agree with 100% but he will not win when it counts. You can not buy the kind of charisma it will take in this election.
Obama. Charisma is fighting a powerful political machine and that is sure fun to watch. Rudy vs Hillary might stand a shot. Hillary does NOT have charisma……..but she has Bill. That is the reason they are risking letting him out, even if his nose does turn purple.
Right now, I’m leaning toward Guliani for one reason.
He hasn’t lied to me.
Ah…..you noticed he has not turned himself inside out. He also has not felt compelled to ride that BDS monkey.
Mike, you can stop dreaming Jeb. Impossible. Darn shame because his brother should go down in history as one of our best if there is one honest bone left in the historians.
“He starts out losing about 20% of his Party”
Which is practically nothing in the overall electorate. The Republican Party is 34% of the electorate. 20% of 34% is 6.8% so Rudy loses about 7% of the electorate. Let’s move along to some meaningful numbers, shall we? And Hillary is going to have some HUGE negative numbers with the Independents if she beats Obama.
What many of the pollsters are not counting on is the psychology involved. Most of the Independents right now are behind Obama and see Hillary as rather smarmy. If Hillary manages to beat Obama, particularly if they perceive she uses any “dirty tricks” to do it, they are going to be in an “anybody but Hillary” mode and will go to Rudy or McCain in droves. They would probably stay home if Romney is the Republican nominee.
“and will go to Rudy or McCain in droves. They would probably stay home if Romney is the Republican nominee” –
Not with 58% negatives. And wait till Hilliary’s operatives do “opposition research” on Rudy. You won’t even recognize him.
Who “stays home” will depend on the debates as well, andIMHO, McCain, Rudy and Mitt all three have the potential to shine.
Right now, Romney has a hostile press, while McCain has a fawning press.
McCain’s claim to fame has been that he has been willing to take pot shots at the Republican establishment. The media LOVES him for that. That all changes them moment he BECOMES the Republican establishment. Then the media will be as hostile as it has ever been to any candidate.
CP,
Agree
Before Fred got into the race I really liked Mitt. I really appreciate Rudy, he is tough and fights for what he believes in. But there is something that makes me uneasy about him. Not on principals but something I can’t quite put my finger on. I hate the way that McCain has stuck it to the President, he didn’t need McCain with the Dems too. Yes he is a war hero….that should have made it easier to understand how hard it is to fight this war overseas and at home to keep us protected. He had to understand that the President had no ill intentions in any of the things he was doing. I can’t understand why McCain didn’t go to the President with his concerns instead to the Newspapers. So I guess It’s Mitt for me.
I would like to Romney/Rice ticket.
Rice needs to be kept far away from government for the rest of her life.
Romney/Rice ticket is about as good as it gets! Otherwise were going to see a McCain/Lieberman ambiguous, conservative ticket…
Yes, it’s down to 3 unless it actually culminates in a brokered convention, then who knows who might emerge.
I like Rudy & Mitt, and disagree about the charisma talk. Next to a shrill & cackling Hillary, non-charisma works fine. I think Romney comports himself just fine.
That Rasmussen poll did not show Rudy leading the GOP, only that he is competitve witht he dems. As Macker pointed out, his negatives were worse than Hillary’s — that’s scary.
Regarding the Anchoress, who cares – she doesn’t get it. Many have been blathering the same thing for a l-o-n-g time now. This isn’t new nor is it correct. Rush is speaking as a conservative. Of the 2 parties, only the GOP incorporates conservative principles into its platform. So as conservatives first, repubs second, Rush & Hannity and the Great One and others are speaking out to try to have their party nominate a candidate who upholds as many of those principles as possible. This is the primary season — this is when you press your case. Of the GOP candidates, clearly & obviously — to anyone who scrutinizes their total record, not just campaign pandering — Huck & McCain are not conservative save for a couple issues. You don’t hear these conservative talkers criticizing Rudy or Mitt.
Read the Horserace Blog at RCP (Jay Cost), the one about the potential of a brokered convention.