Jan 25 2008
Early Pay Off In Early Voting For Rudy
I think Rudy may actually shock people in Tuesday – because he got is voters in long before then. I have had some comments here describing anecdotal evidence of huge margins for Rudy in early voting. And now we see reporting from FL that the early voting numbers are huge – now just under the total primary vote from 2004 – leading for FL 2008 to be another record turnout primary:
Nearly 700,000 voters had voted early or returned absentee ballots as of Thursday. Just 786,000 voted in the uncontested 2004 presidential primary.
And for once it looks like the GOP is besting the dems in turnout. All this bodes well for Giuliani:
So far 325,161 Republicans have cast early or absentee votes, compared to 295,932 Democrats.
…
“Having an established ground game that you’re ready to activate when ballots are actually in people’s hands is very important when you’re in a tight race,” said David Johnson, a veteran Florida Republican strategist who is not aligned with any presidential candidate.
…
The candidate who may have the most to gain or lose from the stampede of early voting is Rudy Giuliani, whose make-or-break strategy in Florida has faltered dramatically. Polls show Florida a two-man race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.
Giuliani desperately needs a tidal wave of Republican votes from Palm Beach and Broward, large counties with big numbers of transplants from the New York metropolitan area.
The former New York mayor needs a lot more people like Jean Alexander, a retired teacher who voted early for Giuliani after attending a rally for him at a library in Coral Springs, which is an early voting site.
“He got a lot of people to root for him and then people just walked into the library when it was over and voted for him,” Alexander said. “It was very convenient.”
I have a theory about Rudy’s drop in polls which trend right along with early voters. What if you cast your vote many days ago and you’re done. Do you answer a pollster’s call? Not likely. In fact it would explain why the polls have been diverging again – a clear sign something is wrong with the sample and turn out models. As people who voted drop out of the samples we see disturbances in what were consistent results across varying turn out models. Does anyone really believe McCainm who exists on strong independent support to overcome strong conservative opposition, is really that high in a GOP only (no independents!) primary? Anyway, no one knows what is happening in FL because there is no precedence for this kind of four-way race in this state with record breaking turn out and early voting options. The polls are all over the place because they have lost the ability to measure what they are looking for.
Rudy was pulled low in the polls and Mc boosted by a totally bogus poll out of the Miami Herald / St Pete papers. It shot the averages to heck because it was so far out of line.
Those two are NYT/Boston Globe south and are totally in the tank for Hillary from years gone by.
AJ Hill is the way ahead favorite on the Dem side here by major margins and it is the penalty box state. I tell ya again and again a lot of that Republican vote you are seeing is cross over Dems voting as Republicans this time around because Hill has such a margin on Obama they feel safe in doing it.
The independents are registering with one party or the other depending on how they wish to play the game, but voter turnout will likely be high even with the penalty box status for the Dems since there is a major issue on the ballot about rolling back property taxes in a large percentage to help people cover the massive increases in insurance rates we have seen here.
The entire tenor and tone of the reporting on this primary season – by EVERYONE – is ridiculous. I’m reminded more and more of one of Mark Twain’s quotes – “if you don’t read a paper, you’re uninformed. If you do read one, you’re misinformed.” They all treat it like it’s a football or basketball game, with one side going ahead, one side losing, and entertainment for all. That’s the only paradigm they have to view events with, and yet it’s an absolutely ridiculous way to look at things!
And yet it seems almost pointless to complain to the people who view things that way (example: Keith Olberman, originally a bad sportscaster) that the real, most fundamental problem is that they simply do not know how to think rationally.
The worst part of this worldview is that it both creates and enforces the idea that American voters are fickle, shallow, easily manipulated, and essentially stupid. They aren’t – and the entire nation’s opinion doesn’t change just because so-and-so does well in some regional dog and pony show.
Oh I also checked and by the latest count we on the Rep side have 25 people who are announcing retirements this cycle which is really gonna put some big holes all across the country to defend in a lot of areas all at once and I don’t really see anyone have long coat tails to drag them along to help.
Aj: You think up some interesting theories sometimes. But this whopper takes the cake. From what I can extrapolate from the polls is that of the voters going to the polls next Tuesday, about 35% are undecided/soft support. The race is Romney – 18%, McCain – 14%, Rudy – 13%, Huckabee – 10%, Paul – 4% and already voted for someone else 6%. The pollster’s models show that the uncommitted break for the top two. So with this allocation Romney and McCain leave Rudy in the dust.
My take is that the pollsters are taking into account the electorate that has voted early or absentee. What is hurting Rudy is that he is being allocated only 5-7% of the uncommitted whereas McCain and Romney are being allocated 12-14%. Whether Florida follows the top two gets the uncommitted vote is something we will find out 1/29.
Dan Riehl points to some data via Commentary Magazine noting the internals of the latest Survey USA poll having Mc take the Hispanic vote over Rudy 60-16.
With all the stories in the local papers of the events being held and well attended in Miami for Rudy with lots of local support I tend to question if that is the case.
Looks like the exit polls will tell the story.
Hate to burst your bubble, but according to the SUSA poll, the early voting has gone equal to McCain & Romney at about 30% with Guiliani down at 18%. I don’t trust this poll as much as some of the others, but still … it doesn’t look good for Rudy. Wish it weren’t so, but he did run one of the worst campaigns I can ever remember.
Rudy might beat…..”Ron Paul” in Florida. Yea!!