Jan 29 2008

Warning On FL Polls and Exit Polls

Published by at 8:50 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Early exit polls for FL are out and magically mirror the pre-election day polls. OK, that is what we might expect. But the fact is all the pre-election polls have been off one way or another and it has been turn out and problems with turn out models which have confounded the pollsters. I am expecting this race to follow the polls with a close Romney-McCain lead and Rudy in a distant 3rd. But I would not bet a bum nickel on this because of two factors: massive turnout and massive early voting. For an example the RCP average for the Dems in SC was spot on for Edwards and Clinton but missed Obama by almost 20% points! That is because the turnout models were off. From what I have seen the turnout today and in early voting is massive – record breaking. The early voting numbers surpassed all the votes from 2006 and 2000. So I will not be surprised if there are some surprises tonight for the pollsters. Conversely, they could be spot on – but that would be the exception for this year.

2 responses so far

2 Responses to “Warning On FL Polls and Exit Polls”

  1. Klimt says:


    Looks like McCain will take FL. Welcome to the New Republican Party (NRP) founded by McCain himself.

  2. AJStrata says:

    Klimt – Yep.

    Folks, I wrote this hours ago and forgot to hit the ‘publish’ button. Anyway, that was what I was thinking.

    A different tomorrow for the GOP – I am sure Mark Levin is livid (he was spitting nickels on the air tonight)