Jan 29 2008
Early exit polls for FL are out and magically mirror the pre-election day polls. OK, that is what we might expect. But the fact is all the pre-election polls have been off one way or another and it has been turn out and problems with turn out models which have confounded the pollsters. I am expecting this race to follow the polls with a close Romney-McCain lead and Rudy in a distant 3rd. But I would not bet a bum nickel on this because of two factors: massive turnout and massive early voting. For an example the RCP average for the Dems in SC was spot on for Edwards and Clinton but missed Obama by almost 20% points! That is because the turnout models were off. From what I have seen the turnout today and in early voting is massive – record breaking. The early voting numbers surpassed all the votes from 2006 and 2000. So I will not be surprised if there are some surprises tonight for the pollsters. Conversely, they could be spot on – but that would be the exception for this year.