Jan 29 2008
FL Primary Results – Rudy Out, Huck Out, Romney On The Way Out?
McCain Wins!: OK Amnesty Hypochondriacs, your either with the GOP nominee or against him. Mark Levin was just livid tonight and I expect him to bolt the party being led by John McCain. McCain won in a GOP-only primary. Levin is going to be in good company with Laura, Michelle and Hannity who must face the fact Mr. Shamnesty is going to the GOP leader. He has the lead in NY and CA polls, and this win is only going to add momentum. As I said in an early post, the anger and insults coming from the far right on Miers, Dubai and Immigration Reform have produced this result. The voters said you insult us and our moderate views and we will give you McCain in return. Mitt went full bore on screaming “amnesty” and I can only say it backfired. And in CA and NY it will not get better. Romney is going to limp into Super Tuesday and get hammered by the McCain express. This is new GOP.
Early Impressions: Two things are becoming clear. First, Giuliani is on his way out after a dismal performance in Florida. But so is Romney on his way out. McCain looks to be heading for a win with 45% of the vote in and McCain continuing to expand his lead. And this will only give him momentum going into NY and CA – where he leads in the polls. And the big story in FL – Immigration. McCain is clobbering Romney with Hispanics – which is going to tell the story of this race. Romney jumped onto the Amnesty Hypochondriac bandwagon as is be getting romped for it. I have watched McCain’s lead go from 22,000 votes at 30% precincts reporting to 40,000 with 46% of precincts in. Romney’s hill to climb is getting steeper and I think he is in serious trouble.
While Rudy may be out of the top slot race, I think McCain would do well to pick Rudy as a great VP who can beat Dems in CA and NY. So we are back to the same calculus. A McCain-Giuliani ticket could beat anything the Dems can bring. And what I hope the dems bring is a bruised and beaten Hillary Clinton. She can still survive and become the best thing for the GOP (again).
I have never been a McCaniac – but you go to battle with the candidate you have, not the one you wish to have.
Update: Looks like my guess about a Rudy VP slot for McCain is not that far fetched – it seems rumors are Rudy will endorse McCain this week.
43 Responses to “FL Primary Results – Rudy Out, Huck Out, Romney On The Way Out?”
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Wow, how much better is a Giuliani-McCain ticket?! The only way the New Republican Party is going to win this year is if Hillary gets the nomination and unites the party. Otherwise, I think Obama will be the first black president — which I think the time has come for.
McCain might be able to beat Hillary, but will not be able to beat Obama.
McCain’s ignorance about economics and lack of support of tax cuts makes a McCain presidency probably as bad for the economy as either a Hillary or Obama presidency.
McCain is weak on the 2nd Amendment and on liberty generally.
The ONLY reason to support McCain, and why I will hold my nose and vote for him is the war. But I surely won’t be enthusiastic.
The war is a very big reason to vote for McCain. Really there is nothing more important. If we don’t win and stay on the offensive we are in big trouble.
I don’t like McCain because of his discing the President on Gitmo, torture, taxes, and his attitude toward Rummy. Maybe he needs a good lesson on how hard it is to make the decisions sitting in the Oval Office. Surely the President doesn’t tell all the Generals that they are full of bull and with out blinking an eye demote them and go over their head. If you read Fred Barns writing on Bushes decision to change course, it was very complicated.
If McCain wins he has already made many enemies in congress in his own party that he will have to work with. He will have a big up hill battle and little help from many to make a difference as a President.
Having said that, I would vote for him because of the war. I hope he would adopt Bushes ” Freedom Agenda”. And I could close my computer for 4 years.
The war is a very big reason to vote for McCain. Really there is nothing more important. If we don’t win and stay on the offensive we are in big trouble.
I don’t like McCain because of his discing the President on Gitmo, torture, taxes, and his attitude toward Rummy. Maybe he needs a good lesson on how hard it is to make the decisions sitting in the Oval Office. Surely the President doesn’t tell all the Generals that they are full of bull and with out blinking an eye demote them and go over their head. If you read Fred Barns writing on Bushes decision to change course, it was very complicated.
If McCain wins he has already made many enemies in congress in his own party that he will have to work with. He will have a big up hill battle and little help from many to make a difference as a President.
Having said that, I would vote for him because of the war. I hope he would adopt Bushes ” Freedom Agenda”. And I could close my computer for 4 years.
I heard Mort Kondracke make the point that if Giulliani had not been in the race McCain would have trounced Romney.
Yes, it seems that the purists are not as omnipotent as they thought. They can complain all they want, but if they had not pissed so many people off they might be able to come up with a win. I hope turning on their own president was worth it.
I am not sure what will happen with Obama. He is charismatic and intelligent, that is for sure. But there is a lot of campaigning ahead and I think real life might catch up to the orator.
Kathie:
McCain disagreed with Bush, he did not diss him. On the two most important and controversial issues that Bush faced, immigration and the war, McCain stuck with him. That is more than can be said for a lot of Bush’s socalled base.
I remember at one debate McCain said that the president deserved praise for hanging in there and it dawned on me at the time that most of those guys standing up there made a point of ignoring Bush as much as possible.
How about a McCain/Dole ticket!!!
Yea!!!
McCain/Perot
Oh, my…
The Maverick Party!!!
AJ,
I’m having a really difficult time linking the article but at http://www.theanchoressonline.com there is a beautiful article titled ‘Bush rescues his own SS Agent” I think you will enjoy it as many others will because it documents what the author feels is a President who has been abandoned by the base that he did so much for.
It’s pretty long with lots of links, videos and quotes but it’s worth the trip.
Anti-immigration is a big winner, isn’t it?
I enjoy being right, don’t you?
SJR
The Pink Flamingo
Huck just said he is staying in till the end in case it’s a brokered convention
lot of speculation out there Rudy will endorse Mc at the Ca debate tomorrow
Major switching of registration for the primaries here according to CNN exit polls 3% of rep voters identified themselves as Dems 17% as independents who had switched for the primary only
41% of Mc voters identified as independents
RUMOR has it Mc put Crist on the short list for VP to get his endorsement
20% of voters on republican primary were temporary registration crossovers
Orange County (orlando) has 17 votes margin with Mitt ahead with 91% in
Huck holding on to a big conservative block is what is messing up this whole primary season
MerlinOS2,
So, do you see that as a positive for McCain in the general or just a vote during the primaries to insure that McCain gets the nomination because those Dems and Indys don’t think he can beat Hillary or Obama so they want his as the Rep. candidate?
Hard to say depending on if the are independents that will stick with Mc or if they are just playing monkey wrench stuff, but there were a lot of anybody but Mc votes tonight also so there you have to guess what will happen
So far by CNN I show a rough total both sides of 2 1/2 million with 77% in
We had a major property tax item on the ballot that drew a lot in today
Will be interesting later to see how many independent issue only ballots were cast compared to the old number of independent voters that were on the list.
The could change registration 30 days before the primary and will switch back up to 30 days before the general
Happens here all the time and lots of reports in the local papers about it again this election
So far in most of the primaries to date exit polls show about 40% of Mc support is from independents so we will see
But remember the full exit polls here did not take into account the absentee or early voters which were almost 1 million in total here
600 k for Mc 1 million against him by the rep side 80% in
Terrye……. Many of the hard decisions that the President had to make that McCain didn’t agree with, he disagreed with an edge that is unbecoming of a Statesman. That is my belief, and I didn’t like it.
The absentee ballot was about five times the usual size this year. 20% of people crossing over to vote in the Republican primary says one thing to me. Shenanigans. This sounds like a victory for ACORN and George Soros, who just happens to be paying the salary of Juan Hernandez who is on McCains staff. Hmmm?
I just want to remind you folks, you got your clocks CLEANED by the ‘purists’ once before, quite unexpectedly I might add. It ain’t over yet. If McCain gets the nom, the indys will go right back to the left, the repub base will not support him at all and he will look like Mondale in 80′. Go read some of the posts on the lefties sites, they are salivating for a McCain nomination, because they know that he will lose so badly. I will not vote for McCain under any circumstances, I will not vote for any congressperson who endorses him. I personally believe it would be better for the dems to win everything and just trash the country for the next four years rather than McCain winning and doing the same thing and having it blamed on the GOP. It would only take the GOP further down the road to oblivian. Lets see how bad Ronald Reagan looks then. After all, it took Jimmy Carter to get Reagan to begin with. If this country wants to go down that road again, they deserve it.
Bikerken,
I hate to say this but the purists are the ones out of power – hint, hint.
Merlin,
For me to vote in a GOP only primary I would be one of your temporary registrants. Same thing with The Anchoress. Think before you lash out.
Or else enjoy purity and all its benefits.
A vote today for McCain is a vote for Obama tomorrow.
After Hours
McCain is the Media darling of the Republican candidates. He’ll get a pass on how liberal he really is until he faces Hillary or Obama one on one. Then the media will turn on him and rip him to shreds to make way for their “true” liberal. It will be a magic carpet ride to the White House for the Dems.
And it’s not that conservatives can’t compromise on another candidate. I think most of us can. Rudy isn’t as socially conservative as most would like but the man has experience and is well liked. Romney is to the right of Rudy but I still see him as left of President Bush and he has the experience. We’d take either of them, but McCain?
The War on Terror is the only place he gets my vote if Romney doesn’t make it. And I worry about him being tough enough to fight the long fight. Not so much the actual war/militay aspect, but all the peripheral battles…Gitmo, waterboarding (or I should say, non-torture techniques that save lives), legal representation for enemy combatants, FISA and being tough on dealing with the Dems to get the proper funding. They are all part of the path to winning this war. .
I don’t see him as Presidential. I see him as a politician. They make the worst Presidents.
AJ,
You’re not a purist, right? I’d say you’re pretty close to being out of power also.
You say they don’t want you, and you don’t want them. Where does that leave everyone? Can you say President Obama? President Hillary? Then next say “immediate Iraq withdrawal.” No one wins. And many more will die…
Whippet1:
I like your posts! If McCain gets the nomination, I think a New Republican Party (NRP) will emerge — and the GOP will become yesterday. Whippet1, do you think Romney still has a shot at winning?
I think Romney has a shot but it remains to be seen how much of a chance he has. McCain is the epitomy of the old school corrupt politician and he’s trying to sell himself as change. The fact is the MSM is covering hard for McCain. If it were on the MSM that McCain actually has a member of MecHa on his staff who doesn’t believe in the border between Us and Mexico, he’d be dead man walking. People are fed up with that NAU crap. But the MSM who wants him to be the nominee, (remember 91% of them vote democrat) they are going to keep it quiet. McCain won among old people and hispanics. Hispanics want, …..more hispanics and old people want, more benefits for old people. He actually lost big among people who called themselves conservatives. DUH. I don’t see how so many people in the US can think that nominating a person for the GOP who is actually hated by conservatives could ever win, unless you really don’t want him to win. That’s why the indy’s are voting for him in droves. Think about it, nobody had any reason to vote in the dem primary at all because someone decided that none of the florida votes were going to count, therefore releasing dems to register as repubs and vote in the weakest candidate. They aren’t really stupid, are they?
Klimt,
Thank you! I just wish we had a strong candidate but it doesn’t look like that will happen. I have no idea what may happen with Romney…I hope he has a shot and I wish Rudy had a shot, or Thompson. I can compromise…but McCain? That’s going to be a tough vote to cast but cast it I will…I may need several drinks before I do it though!
In 2006 my youngest could vote for the first time. My brotherat about the age of 42 and a friend of his had never voted…(I know, many arguments about that one) but we all met up at the polling place and voted. We made it an event so that my youngest would understand the importance. I think she’s going to be dragging me there this time!
AJ
I’m not lashing out at any one I am just running the numbers no more no less and letting the chips fall where they may.
Tonight just from IMPARTIAL looking at the numbers on each side of the primaries.
Both sides had about 20% crossover in their voting. About normal for what you will scale to in the general election.
Republicans turned out a total of about 200k MORE voters than the dems did.
Rough projections would show that in the general the dem candidate would lose by about 2 % or so overall.
Once the full results are in and I can run regression lines for each county I will be able to have a better number.
Whippet,
We seem to be on the same plane – I’ve agreed with everything you’ve posted here recently.
AJ – your “analysis” is downright silly. McCain doing well has nothing to do with a blowback against the “purists” or “amnesty hypochondriacs”. Case in point: AJ Strata, pissed-off against purists (aka core conservatives), would have voted for …. Rudy! (or Romney). McCain was basically your last choice. There are a few McCain supporters in your camp, but most held similar views as you. And immigration was not a huge issue. Those who said immigration was key favored Romney! Yes, McCain got the hispanic vote, but that was becasue of Martinez and some other key hispanic pols/leaders in his campaign.
This is all about the GOP moving left and the various campaigns and personalities of the candidates. The nomination was really Fred’s for the taking, but he didn’t get serious (energized) until it was already over. Rudy had the next best shot but he bailed on the early states and was then out of the headlines and dropping in the polls. His momentum was in the wrong direction, and as Huck & McCain & Romney picked up wins and media attention, Rudy looked more & more like a non-factor. And the rise of Huck in the early states side-tracked Romney and continues to hurt him. Of course, McCain has been helped all along by a supportive MSM. Why? because they like his “straight talk” and his maverick ways. In other words, he goes aginst his own party and conservatives. McCain was helped immensely by the order of the primaries, with indies & even dems voting (heavily) in Iowa & NH, and even SC.
And what about McCain as the nominee? Since the conventional wisdom is that he was the one repub who could beat the dems, my gut reaction says that’s bogus. Against Obama I think he gets crushed. A tired, old, cranky entrenched inside-the-beltway pol versus the fresh-faced eloquent, graceful black candidate with the uplifting oratory — no contest. Against Hillary, it will be much closer, but I think he loses again. And the GOP could be in shambles since they decided to embrace the candidate who is not just the least conservative of the bunch, but one who has consistently and openly thumbed his nose at them. And what if McCain were to actually win & become pres? I don’t like it at all (I would plan to vote for him, though, over any dem). Yes, he’s been stalwart on Iraq, but Iraq is only part of the GWOT. His view on Gitmo and interrogations and open borders and other related issues indicates he’ll be sorely lacking when compared to our current president. His environmental views and tax record and drug re-importation all portend for a sour economy. Maybe this will be a worse outcome for the GOP, but I’m getting to far ahead.
Speaking of Fred he was polling near 12 % in the polls but only 1% of the vote showed up for him tonight so most of the absentee and early votes went to the top 3 guys on our side and we didn’t have a bunch of locked up early Fred voters like many thought would have happened.
Kathie:
Like it or not like it McCain is what he has always been. That is more than can be said for the backstabbers who profess such undying loyalty and then accuse the president of the United States of selling us out to Mexico.
I have been called a Bushbot by people on the right and left both and if I can support McCain then apparently he has not been all that obnoxious.
Whippet:
I read that anchoress post. She is really good isn’t she?
The conservative hate machine has been defeated!
And btw when Romney says Washington is broken, he is talking about Bush just as much as he is anyone else.
>>>Both sides had about 20% crossover in their voting. About normal for what you will scale to in the general election.
Merlin, what in the blazes are you smoking???? First, they have already shown that 40 percent of McCains votes were liberals and independants who switched over. But what on gods green earth makes you think that conservatives voted over to Hillary? Are you out of your mind? I will admit that some will in the general election just as I will to make sure McAmnesty loses. but Jesus Christ, are you really stupid enough to believe that 20 percent of repubs crossed over to vote for someone when their parties votes were not even eligible to be counted????? What a moron!!!
Rich, you sound like a fag, “the conservative hate machine has been defeated!.” Get a nutsac dude.
You guys are all a bunch of liberal schills and you don’t think anyone can see this??? Jeess.
Terrye……. Many of the hard decisions that the President had to make that McCain didn’t agree with, he disagreed with an edge that is unbecoming of a Statesman. That is my belief, and I didn’t like it.
I agree Kathie and you nailed it.
McCain disagreed with Bush, he did not diss him. On the two most important and controversial issues that Bush faced, immigration and the war, McCain stuck with him. That is more than can be said for a lot of Bush’s socalled base.
Terrye, don’t think I agree with most of that. McCain stuck with McCain on the war. And told every media in sight. Immigration? Okay. It could be they held similar views. Did he diss Bush? I say he did it as loudly as possible. When you have the Power and you deliberately allow the NYT to publish Abu Ghraib for years by your silence, I call that dissing someone. When you deliberately label the President as a Torturer, when you are about the only Power on Earth that could stop it, I call that a mighty big Diss.
I hate his self-rightousness. It’s all about choices. If he is the nominee, I will vote for McCain. I will not sit home. To do so is pure self-gratification. That is selfish, self centered chest thumping by those that would condemn this President when he was faced with decision after decision and could not be so spineless as to take a pass.
So how about it, you stay at homers? Only WIMPS have the option of not voting when you dabble with politics. You all want the President to have the Spine to make all the Right decisions. How is your Spine feeling about now?
Terrye,
The Anchoress is really good. I sat there all misty- eyed.
It’s one thing when we see those in congress making their speeches and casting their votes. It’s pretty easy to tell why they voted the way they did. But when it comes to the President and his decisions there is so much the public will never and can never know. It comes down to trust. And I have always trusted President Bush.