Feb 01 2008
Obama And McCain Rising
A quick look at some key polls tell you all you need to know about Super Tuesday. McCain’s and Obama’s numbers keep rising. The difference is McCain is expanding his lead while Obama is still overtaking Clinton. Check out these daily tracking poll graphs from Gallup:
These national numbers (and the analysis that goes with them so follow the links to Gallup) show both McCain and Obama moving up smartly while their opponents have less movement. And in the big Super Tuesday states you see similar patterns. Check out the current RCP polls for NY and McCain, he is crushing Romney. Obama has a hill to climb and not much time. I would prefer he barely lose to Hillary so as to inflict maximum damage to the Dems and split their base so that disillusioned African Americans will cross-over to McCain if he continues to be the most likely nominee. That is the GOP’s best hope right now, Clinton scratching out a win and busting the democrat base apart in the process.
AJ
We need a Hillary win because Obama is so much more appealing than Old-timer McCain. Plus Hillary will unite us under the NRP. Most amazing part is there are people who still have never heard of that marvelous man, Romney.
I’m not counting out Romney just yet, either. If people still have never heard of him — he has a shot to make himself known. You need I think 1100 to get the nomination — best case for McCain is 700 from what I have read. Don’t get wrong, people are shifting towards McCain but Romney has a shot too!
What happened to the rest of that post? opps?
It was a link to Rasmussen daily tracking poll which shows the numbers much tighter between McCain and Romney.
We just don’t know who to believe these days do we?
Have any of the McCain bashers who swear NEVER NEVER considered the possibility that a thoroughly disaffected McCain who is rejected at the last minute could NOW bolt to the Dems and be a running mate for Hillary or Obama? or, just campaign for one of them?
not a pretty thought.
Cato:
I don’t think that will happen. Time and again people who do not like McCain have said he will bolt to the Democrats, he hasn’t.
Polls are very unpredictable and I don’t always trust them, but if you look at the individual states and then the national polls, they all do show an uptake for McCain. Does that mean it is over? No, I think it is not over until the guy has the nomination. But McCain has already done more than his critics imagined he could do.
They need to do more than attack him for caring about the environment, promoting the import of cheaper meds and supporting campaign finance reform. This kind of stuff just does not upset ordinary people.
Why You’re Going To Vote For John McCain In November And Like It!
And Tim Carney’s…
Commentary – Timothy Carney: McCain vs. Hillary on earmarks: Good government vs. pay to play
Last night on Special Report Fox had McCain at almost 50%. I think it was 48. They made mention of the fact that even if Romney does not make it this time he should hang in there for the next election. That reminded me that Reagan did not make it the first time either. It took awhile.
There are Democrats, like Pat Caddel, who say that if Hillary is their candidate they will vote for McCain. There are Republicans (many besides Coulter), who say that if McCain is the candidate they will vote for Hillary.
I think the Dems may get this one right. They’ll unify around Obama. The Repubs seem ready to sink the ship and vote for McCain.
What we need is an Obama vs Romney campaign and debate so that it is the issues that decide, and not polarized politics.
Rally for Romney.
This is a little off topic. This is what Lincoln said in a speech while he was running for office — I just loved the metaphors and thought I would share:
“I am at a disadvantage. Senator Douglas is of world-wide renown. All the anxious politicians of his party, or who have been of his party for years past, have been looking upon him as certainly, at no distant day, to be the President of the United States. They have seen in his round, jolly, fruitful face, post offices, land offices, marshalships, and cabinet appointments, chargeships and foreign missions, bursting and sprouting out in wonderful exuberance ready to be laid hold of by their greedy hands. And as they have been gazing at this attractive picture so long they cannot in the little distraction that has taken place in the party bring themselves to quite give up the charming hope, but with greediness anxiously they rush about, sustain him, give him marches, triumphant entires and reception, beyond what even in the days of his highest prosperity they could have brought about in his favor. On the contrary, nobody has ever expected me to be President. In my poor, lean, lank face, nobody has ever seen that any cabbages were sprouting out.”
It would be great for the center-right’s chances if Hillary overcame Obama after a bruising battle, but such bruises can heal fast with an election to win and grown-ups running the show. It’s as likely that a close Obama loss would work instead to solidify him as the Democrat heir apparent, win or lose in November – and he also makes a lot of sense from a D perspective as a VP candidate, since his main weakness other than that he’s a far left ideologue wolf in post-partisan sheep’s clothing, is that he’s unseasoned. He’d be the first black candidate on a major national ticket, even if he’s at the bottom of it, and so the Democrats would get both of their two much-desired “firsts.” Hillary on the other hand is much, much less likely to be a VP: She’s already done time as a powerless bystander in a national administration. It’s her turn, and the woman’s turn, and female identity voters are a lot less likely to accept another round of subordination.
The underlying advantage that both McCain and Hillary have in the minds of voters is that a rejection in either case would be definitive. After this year, there will be no further opportunities to give McCain a chance at the helm, and the defeat of Hillary would represent a firm break by the Democrats with the most recent, extended period of successful (again from the D’s point of view) Democratic. In other words, the electorates can refuse Romney and Obama this time, and still bank them for later – something very realistic for Obama, perhaps less so for Romney but still psychologically valid.
In the meantime, if, as seems likely, McCain wins the nomination, failure by the party to rally around him would represent an historical error of calamitous proportions. The level of delusion and self-importance on the part of the group AJ calls “hyper-rightists” truly does deserve the word “extreme.” It’s pure fantasy to expect that the party and the conservative movement would likely recover easily from such an exhibitionistically self-destructive act, that voters would at any time soon want to reward a movement seen to be dominated by hate-filled ideologues – almost regardless of how disappointing a period of unified Democratic governance seemed.
The next Democratic Administration, if put in place by 2009, will be able to fix huge new client constituencies based on health, immigration, and environmentalist initiatives. Look to the 1930s if you want to see how bad results can be manipulated for the sake of retaining power for statists: They got a massive failure of an administration re-elected 3 times, and 70 years later it’s still viewed as one of the great episodes of American politics.
Frogg:
Just before Edwards dropped out of the race, Gallup did a poll on favorability for different candidates. In the top 4, there was only one Republican, John McCain. He had a rating the same as Obama’s. Romney’s rating was 32. The chances of someone with a rating like that winning a national election is practically nonexistent. I think that many people are just tired of the right, they want something different.
Rasmussen released poll today showing Romney tied with McCain nationally. Yes, it is a four day rolling average and much of the effects from the FL win, Giuliani endorsement, etc have not had an effect. The point being…he was on the rise.
Romney just won the Maine caucus big today! And, he has gained 9 points in Missouri since the Florida vote. He has higher favorables than McCain in Tennessee.
Left by Terrye says some people are just tired of the right. The right says Romney isn’t conservative enough. It’s all perspective. And, most people haven’t even paid attention. It also doesn’t explain why Democrats will vote Republican if Hillary is the nominee. I think you meant to say that people are sick of it all. Guess what? Romney is as new as Obama. McCain isn’t.
Read Walid Phares’ endorsement of Romney for fighting GWOT called:
The Candidate Who Can See the Enemy, Can Defeat It
by Walid Phares
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24808
excerpt:
I am sure Senator McCain can follow the same reasoning and catch up with the geopolitics of the enemy but so far Governor Romney has readied himself better in the realm of strategizing the defeat this enemy. The next stage of the war has to do with a mind battle with the Jihadists. The latter aren’t a just a bunch of Barbarians set to bloodshed. They have a very advanced strategy, projecting for decades, and they are ready to confront our next President and defeat the United States. This is why I have come to the conclusion that -based on what was provided to the public by the four leading candidates- Governor Romney has the capacity of managing the counter strategies against the Jihadists, only because he stated to the public that he sees the enemy as to who they are. And if a President can see them, he can defeat them. His Republican contender, now leading the polls, can sense them but haven’t shown them. The leading candidates on the other side are making progress in the opposite direction: One wants to end the War unilaterally and the other wants to make Peace with the oppressors. In short, if elected, Romney will try to destroy the mother ship, McCain will supply the trenches, Clinton will pull the troops back to the barracks and Obama will visit the foes’ bunkers.
Hence, as is, I have recommended Governor Romney for the Republican Primaries as first among equals while considering Senator McCain as a genuine leader. If Romney is selected I believe America may have a chance to try new strategies. If his contender is selected, we will have four or eight more years of the past seven years. On the other side, I have suggested to counter-Terrorism experts to help Democratic candidates restructure their agendas on national security in line with the reality of the enemy: For I would like to see both Parties presenting a united vision of the threat while differing on how to confront it. That would be the ideal situation America can be in and a response to the deepest will of the American public.
Frogg:
Like I said anything can happen, but this poll with Rasmussen is the only one of a half dozen that even have Romney close to McCain, none of the others come close to a tie. I think people who want Romney should vote for him, but it is a long shot.
But as far as fighting Islamic terrorism is concerned, McCain has the edge. He just does.
Real Clear Politics gives McCain a 12 point advantage. Fox gives him a 28 point advantage, which seems excessive to me.
Here is another poll. Rasmussen has McCain ahead of both Clinton and Obama. At the bottom of the page, there is a note about Rasmussens Markets putting McCain at 91.6 to win the nomination.
We shall see, what we see.
And as for the Maine caucas, McCain did not even campaign there. I looked at RCP and McCain is still ahead there.
I think that anything really can happen however, whatever the polls say. Hillary and Giulliani got too cocky and look at what happened. I think the right got that way too in reverse. They thought that if they hated McCain enough the rest of the party would do as they were told. It has not worked that way.
If Romney gets the nomination, I will vote for him. I will not have fit, or take my marbles and go home and act as if it is the end of the world. Too bad the same can not be said for some of the Romney supporters.
I should have said I looked at RCP and McCain is still ahead in Missouri. Huckabee is closer to him in some of those polls than Romney is.
In fact according to this polls from ARG Huckabee is ahead in MO. McCain in DE.
Here is something else on MO. This article mentions a poll which puts McCain 10 points ahead of Romney. It also mentions that former Senator Danforth endorsed McCain. I read Clarence Thomas’s memoir, My Grandfather’s Son and he talks a lot about Danforth, they are very close.