Feb 03 2008
Race Tightening In Home Stretch To Super Tuesday
Polls are actually tightening up in some states (and at times by some pollsters) which means the two mavericks (Obama and McCain) are facing their strongest challenge from the establishment backed candidates (Romney and Clinton). Super Tuesday will be a test of each party’s remaining political strength over their respective base. The problem for both sides of the aisle is they have distilled their base to the point where moderates and independents are not welcomed – which is why each party has a serious maverick challenging the establishment candidate.
A lot of party stalwarts are in denial about how they have chased the moderates and independents from the ‘big tents’ in their quest for purity, but all you need to look at the head-to-head polls to understand that this is exactly what is going on. Obama gives McCain a good run (McCain +.06%), but McCain does best against the establishment Hillary (McCain 1.9%) and Obama romps against the establishment Romney (Obama 18.3%).
The country is definitely leaning left and not ready to support the GOP unless under very special circumstances, like a moderate candidate. This can be seen in the polls where the two establishment candidates go head-to-head (Clinton 12.6%). Romney’s poor showing in the head-to-heads is a clear indication that the ‘more pure’ GOP candidate is not what America wants right now. They prefer someone who is more like Bush than AM Talk Radio. Denying this fact of the polls does not change the reality.
Obama needs to catch Clinton in some key states to keep her from claiming victory on Super Wednesday. The GOP wants to face Hillary to increase their chances of winning. To maximize them they need McCain facing Hillary. A Romney nomination will be the toughest position to pull a win out of no matter which combination is analyzed. So as the polls tighten, Super Tuesday is turning out to be super critical to the direction of the country. And I hope we see the same record turnout so that the country speaks clearly and we learn to deal with what she says. Because right now there is a revolt against the party and media elites dictating our choices – and this year America is definitely pushing back against ‘the establishment’. What we will know on Tuesday is who won – voters or the establishment.
I will vote for McCain if he is the nominee. I am for Romney at the moment, though, because I think he can beat Hillary and she appears to me to be the probable Dem nominee. Romney won’t beat Obama, though, but McCain could.
I will vote Republican in November no matter who gets the nomination. Come the convention though, if Hillary looks like she is going to get the Dem nomination, either candidate can win. If it looks like Obama, only McCain is going to be able to beat him as he will split the Independent vote who would otherwise go 100% Obama if Romney is the candidate.
I don’t know what polls you are looking at Crosspatch, but there isn’t one I’ve seen that puts Romney anywhere near winning against “either” Obama or Hillary in a general election.
This is an interesting poll. It is from Pew and has a lot of information about both parties and their candidates. The Democrats are thrilled with their choices. That is why their turnout is so high. How depressing.
There are charts etc, but this is just one paragraph, concerning McCain’s jump in the polls, they have him 20 points ahead of Romney:
McCain holds a substantial lead among all segments of the Republican electorate, with the sole exception of white evangelical Protestants. Huckabee equals McCain’s support among these voters (34% each). McCain now holds a 37% to 26% lead over Romney among conservative Republican voters, and wins the support of a majority (52%) of moderate and liberal Republican voters.
While McCain’s earlier victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina were assisted by his strong backing from independent voters, McCain’s ability to win in Florida’s “closed” Republican primary is reflected in the current national figures. He continues to hold a commanding lead among independents who “lean” toward the Republican Party, but also has opened a 15-point lead over Romney (38% to 23%) among those who consider themselves Republicans.
From that poll, look at Romney’s approval rating at 29. If this is right and it does not change, there is no way he can win a general election with numbers like this. I don’t understand that, why would his numbers be that low? The only Republican over 50 is McCain.
I think McCain is electable against Hillary. I just don’t think Romney will be electable against either Hillary or Barack.
McCain may have a hard time defeating Barack.
So I’m hoping Hillary wins her nomination.
These polls are a bunch of ____ especially the national ones. Not many people know anything about Mitt but when he comes to their state and introduces himself they get to know him and his numbers increase dramatically. Increase enough so that if McCains wingman Huckebee was not siphoning off consevatives Mitt would win by large margins. Mitt still manages a tie with Huckster playing Ross Perro of the primaries.
I know all I need to about McCain, he cannot hold his own in a debate ,again I ask have you watched them? He is mean, nasty and only has the “I was a hero/prisoner” meme – not enough for me to vote for a 71 year old man who looks like he could have the big one at any moment.
Dhunter:
I was just going to say that about Mitt… I’ve been watching these polls since day one… in California right now McCain and Romney are tied at 38% each… a week ago McCain was up by like 15%…
Just look at the posts by AJ. Yesterday he said McCain was gapping; today he posted that they are tightening!
Thats right Klimt,
The other scary thing about this primary season is that the Republican party was sleeping again when they let the races all be front loaded and so far out. We’ve had a handful (6?) of states vote and are down to 2 viable candidates in each party.
Ask youselves who does this favor and how did this happen?
It favors the big name well known SENATORS who have becoming expert at one thing – protecting their incumbancy and getting elected with our tax dollars -Ear marks!
That and the big media elites con trolling who gets the positive and most press.
Obama was able to overcome this with his change message and his youth but may yet become Hillary’s VP after McCain is given the nomination. Will anyone (supporting McCain) wake up then and see they have been had?
Hand delivered a mean, old man who cannot articulate a sentence or run on his record?
Yes, that is true. But that is because the psychology that would cause what I am thinking of can only happen if Hillary beats Obama. Much of Obama’s support is from independents. If Hillary beats Obama, there is going to be a strong “anyone but Clinton” sentiment among the Democrat leading independents.
Asking people now before it actually happens doesn’t mean anything. It is like polling people in 2003 what their feelings would be if a hurricane destroyed New Orleans. The reality in 2005 would be much different than the polling in 2003.
I think it is *possible* that Romney can beat Clinton, particularly if the economy is the issue given the Clinton’s remarks about needing to slow down the economy, needed to take money away from people, etc.
No way Romney is going to be Obama … and right now McCain beats both of them. So if McCain going to the general election means that the Republicans win, then I am going to support McCain
McCain says “Fences Firstâ€. Then he hired the most ardent, outspoken advocate of open borders in the U.S. – Juan Hernandez. Hernandez maintains that there are not two nations – just one region. He was in Vicente Fox’s cabinet. He crisscrossed the country, giving moral support to La Raza and other racist, violent, hate groups, advocating “immigrant rights†for illegal aliens. Hernandez argued passionately about the need to obtain legal status for all Mexican workers in the U.S., lobbying personally for increased labor rights, health benefits, and education for all Mexicans in the U.S. He successfully lobbied for in-state tuition in many states.
Remember McCain’s bill would have issued a forever renewable “Z visa†for $3,000 to any illegal who wanted to stay in the U.S. indefinitely. If McCain were trustworthy on the “Fences First†proclamation, he would have come within a 100 miles of Dr. Hernandez. How can McCain be trusted on anything else? Unfortunately the establishment Republicans and MSM avoids any discussion of Hernandez.
I agree with Ann. Either McCain or Clinton would be disastrous for the U.S. Therefore let the Democrats screw up, so we can blame the disaster on the Democrats.
As far as Hillary and Obama, Obama is a pure zero, nothing but rhetoric. In the state legislature he voted “present†scores of time rather than take a position. Bill acted much the same way as president. He avoided going after Bin Laden and the Islamofascists despite many opportunities. We can’t afford another Bill at this time. Hillary is very smart and has tasted fire. I trust her more to correctly research and analyze a situation before taking action. She did make the right decision when presented with all the data from U.S. and other foreign intelligence services and vote for the war, unlike many cowardly pacifists. Anyone, given the same data, and not voting for war is unqualified to be President.
Man, oh, man…..I forgot all about this:
“He also voted for the Specter amendment, which provided that the government of Mexico, among others, would have to be consulted before building physical barriers along the southern border. Six months later, McCain says he was wrong.”
and this,
“I believe my party has gone astray. I think the Democratic Party is a fine party, and I have no problems with it, in their views and in their philosophy.â€
McCain said this in 2004 when speaking at a DEMOCRAT Party shindig at the time he was being TOUTED by the MSM and quite a few Democrats (and maybe McCain himself?) for a possible shot as Kerry’s VP nominee. ”
url=http://dailypundit.com/?p=29500
I have a headache now.
If Hillary beats Obama, there is going to be a strong “anyone but Clinton†sentiment among the Democrat leading independents.
From what I’ve been seeing/hearing around here, such a scenario would only benefit McCain….not Romney. I know plenty of people in the category you are speaking of and most of them jokingly refer to Romney as the Anti-Christ. I doubt very seriously they are going to fall in love with him if Hillary beats Obama.