Feb 03 2008
Race Tightening In Home Stretch To Super Tuesday
Polls are actually tightening up in some states (and at times by some pollsters) which means the two mavericks (Obama and McCain) are facing their strongest challenge from the establishment backed candidates (Romney and Clinton). Super Tuesday will be a test of each party’s remaining political strength over their respective base. The problem for both sides of the aisle is they have distilled their base to the point where moderates and independents are not welcomed – which is why each party has a serious maverick challenging the establishment candidate.
A lot of party stalwarts are in denial about how they have chased the moderates and independents from the ‘big tents’ in their quest for purity, but all you need to look at the head-to-head polls to understand that this is exactly what is going on. Obama gives McCain a good run (McCain +.06%), but McCain does best against the establishment Hillary (McCain 1.9%) and Obama romps against the establishment Romney (Obama 18.3%).
The country is definitely leaning left and not ready to support the GOP unless under very special circumstances, like a moderate candidate. This can be seen in the polls where the two establishment candidates go head-to-head (Clinton 12.6%). Romney’s poor showing in the head-to-heads is a clear indication that the ‘more pure’ GOP candidate is not what America wants right now. They prefer someone who is more like Bush than AM Talk Radio. Denying this fact of the polls does not change the reality.
Obama needs to catch Clinton in some key states to keep her from claiming victory on Super Wednesday. The GOP wants to face Hillary to increase their chances of winning. To maximize them they need McCain facing Hillary. A Romney nomination will be the toughest position to pull a win out of no matter which combination is analyzed. So as the polls tighten, Super Tuesday is turning out to be super critical to the direction of the country. And I hope we see the same record turnout so that the country speaks clearly and we learn to deal with what she says. Because right now there is a revolt against the party and media elites dictating our choices – and this year America is definitely pushing back against ‘the establishment’. What we will know on Tuesday is who won – voters or the establishment.
AJ:
When I voted for Bush in 2004 a good friend of mine {who is a Democrat} told me it was only a matter of time before the right wing turned on people like me. She said they would rather lose with some fanatic than continue to win with someone who can actually attract Independents. I reminded her of Reagan, and she said, yeah well they hated him too…back then.
I hate to think she was right. I am sure the race will tighten, but I think McCain will probably maintain a lead. I just hope the right acts like grownups about it.
They should remember that without the moderates Bush would not have won at all. If they lose the moderates and Independents they can kiss it good bye. I think we owe the troops better than that.
Volatile, one poll has Romney up in CA, but so far only one. Then there is this from sfgate:
Arizona Sen. John McCain lengthened his lead in the state Republican primary, grabbing a 32 to 24 percent edge among likely voters over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was at 13 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 10 percent.
But the Democratic numbers are the shocker. Clinton, a longtime California favorite, saw her once-commanding lead slip to two percentage points, 36 to 34 percent, in the new survey. That’s down from the New York senator’s 12 percentage point lead in mid-January and a 25 percentage point margin over Obama in October.
But with 18 percent of Democratic voters still undecided just days before Tuesday’s primary, the election is still up for grabs, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll’s director.
“It’s an unusually volatile election, with a very high number of undecided voters and so many moving parts,” he said. “It could be a very, very close election.”
The head-to-head matchups between the Republican and Democratic candidates highlight both Clinton’s loosening hold on California voters and McCain’s growing strength in the state.
Clinton now clings to a bare 45 to 43 percent lead over McCain in a projected California presidential vote, down dramatically from her 17 percentage point margin just two weeks ago. Obama now holds a stronger 47 to 40 percent margin over the Arizona senator, but that’s only half the 14 percentage point advantage he had in mid-January.
Both Democrats still run well ahead of Romney, collecting more than 50 percent of the vote in those matchups.
Obama’s California campaign team said the latest polls reflect a hard-charging effort to track down potential voters in every precinct – undeterred by polls that showed the Illinois senator behind by double digits here for most of the race.
“If we hadn’t laid the groundwork for the last year, we couldn’t be delivering now,” Debbie Mesloh, spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, said Saturday.
Averell “Ace” Smith, Clinton’s California campaign manager, said the last-minute dead heat is to be expected in the nation’s most populous state, which is “critical” to Clinton’s effort to win the nomination.
“We always knew it would tighten,” he said. “But we’re incredibly confident in the organization we have to get out the vote.”
The new poll shows why Obama’s campaign has been targeting decline-to-state voters, who can cast ballots in the Democratic primary. While Clinton has a 37 to 31 percent lead over Obama among Democrats, Obama leads by an overwhelming 54 to 32 percent among nonpartisans, who will make up an estimated 13 percent of the primary voters.
The poll also highlights the dramatic split the Clinton-Obama battle has caused in the state’s Democratic Party. Rich versus poor, young versus old, liberal versus conservative, men versus women: Each of those groups has lined up on different sides of the primary divide.
While people aged 18 to 29 back Obama by a margin of 11 percentage points, voters 65 and older support Clinton, 40 to 18 percent. Voters with household incomes of $40,000 or less back Clinton by an advantage of 11 percentage points, while those making $80,000 or more are strong Obama supporters.
Obama attracts voters who call themselves liberal, who have gone to graduate school and who are from the Bay Area, which backs him 41 to 31 percent. Clinton’s strength is among conservatives and moderates, those with a high school education and residents of sprawling Los Angeles County, where she holds a 42 to 34 percent lead.
There’s also a broad ethnic and gender gap between the campaigns. While white voters are split evenly between Clinton and Obama, the Illinois senator, whose late father was a black African, has a 55 to 19 percent lead among black voters, while Latinos back Clinton 52 to 19 percent.
Among men, Obama holds a 13 percentage point lead, the same advantage Clinton holds among women.
But for Clinton, even her good numbers show some ominous changes. In mid-January, the Field Poll showed her with a 19 percentage point lead among women and a huge 59 to 19 percent advantage with Latino voters. In two weeks, much of that backing has melted away.
While part of the reason for the huge number of undecided voters is last week’s departure of John Edwards from the race, most of it seems to be honest angst among Democrats pressed to make a choice between two favored candidates, DiCamillo said.
“This is the Democratic rank and file having a hard time making a choice, because they like them both,” he said.
On the Republican side, McCain continues to make an astounding comeback in a state where he was virtually given up for dead just months ago. He’s moved from 12 percent in December to 22 percent in mid-January to 32 percent and the lead in the most recent poll.
I will be voting Romney on Tuesday.
The GOP “establishment” is coalescing around McCain, not Romney. But as the GOP moves left, conservatives are gathering behind their only remaining viable candidate. Although CA is not winner take all, it will be huge if Romney can win there and of course a few other states. This will stop or slow talk of McCain inevitability and shift momentum.
As far as the polls for the general, they are practically meaningless this far out.
Wiley:
This is something I really do not understand. You say that McCain is not conservative enough. He does not have the track record and conservatives do not support him…but when conservatives like Danforth, Coburn, Olson, Forbes etc support him…all of a sudden they cease to be conservatives and become establishment.
I think people should vote for the guy they want to win, but it seems to me that from the amount of whining and crying we are hearing from some quarters that the maverick is about to win, the guy who is not a team player is in the lead etc, that it is kind of contradictory to say he is the establishment candidate.
I think Romney is the establishment candidate. Just ask Rush.
Hard right soocial conservatives can’t stand to be called “establishment”, LOL. They like to be the persecuted underdogs or the on top dominatrix’s, donncha know! All or nothing imho.
Rush speaks as a conservative, not as a repub. Particularly if McCain becomes the nominee, the GOP will have moved way left. Come the general most of us will back McCain if he indeed wins the nomination, but he hasn’t won anything yet. This is still early in the primary season, the time for factions to sort things out.
Wiley:
I am not being snarky here. Really. I just wonder how old you are. I remember when Reagan came to office and trust me, he was not nearly as conservative as people seem to think a nominee is supposed to be. There are all sorts of Republicans in office out there who are not as conservative as some purists are saying they want a president to be. McCain himself has been in office for some time. He is not some radical lefty out of nowhere. The truth is there are people on the right trying to move the Republican further right than it has ever been.
Nixon was not a right wing ideologue. In fact he was responsible for some of the most stringent environmental laws in the country. Ford was not that far right either.
I don’t think Romney is a bad man or anything, but he went right on immigration just to garner support. I don’t think he really believes half of what he says on that issue. I think he has done that on a lot of things. I am not sure he is strong enough for the job.
It is one thing to modify some of your positions for the sake of winning elections, all politicians do..but my biggest problem with Romney is that he does not just modify his positions, he completely obliterates them. As if they were never there at all. He is too relative for me.
But if he gets the nomination I will vote for him. It is obvious that the self styled powers that be have decided he is to be the heir apparent.
And McCain has won enough so far to be ahead. Super Tuesday is one more hurdle. What happens, happens.
BTW, Eisenhower was enough of a moderate to get 44% of the black vote. Thomas Dewey was a reformer/prosecutor like Giulliani, not a social conservative at all. The list goes on.
Where are these conservatives we keep hearing about? Gingrich and Delay? Where are they? Reagan? Raised taxes, granted amnesty, pulled out of Lebanon, made deals with mullahs, never said a word about same sex marriage one way or the other. No, I don’t think the party has moved left, I think the echo chambers of the right wing blogosphere and talk radio have tried to move it right.
I see McCain as the “Washington establishment” candidate, not Romney. There are other polls that arent’ even showing up on the polling average cites yet that show movement coming back to Romney. It is McCain that has the Bush/Rove machine behind him; not Romney.
Look, guys. I’m not blind, deaf, or dumb. I know that McCain and the Media would like to declare McCain the winner on super tuesday. But, the truth is……I still have a dog in this fight. And, until my dog is dead or done I’ll fight for him. This is still the primary fight……and, that is what democracy is all about.
Head to head polls between the parties don’t matter a ding in the primary. On the eve of the NH election polls showed Obama beating Hillary by double digits. Hillary won. In fact, at the beginning of the general electtion Kerry outpolled Bush in a head to head by double digits. We know what happens when the general election plays out and voters that aren’t die hard political nuts actually start paying attention. Things shift.
Romney will out debate and out convince anyone against either Hillary or Obama in the general election. McCain will fade.
If I were to put my party first, I would vote for Hillary over McCain. But, in the end I will put my country first and vote McCain over Obama/Hillary if that is my only choice. I do love our military too much to put them under Obama/Hillary’s thumb. The win-win for me would be Romney vs Hillary. The win-win for the country would be Romney vs Obama.
But, you know what bothers me more than anything? George Soros has three ponies in this race……..Obama, Hillary, and McCain (in that order). Romney is the outsider. That’s why the Washington establish and the media are trying to get rid of him.
It should also be said that Romney and Obama both have the advantage after super tuesday because the dynamics of the race will change and no longer be in McCain or Hillary’s favor. Obama may very well overtake Hillary in the elections after super tuesday. If Romney can hang in there and stop McCain on super tueseday……the advantage swings his direction (but, with a much harder battle than Obama will have against Hillary).
Frogg very well said!
Terrye I understand your frustration. Don’t worry — we will rally behind whoever gets the nomination — especially if we are facing Hillary.
I guess I just get frustrated too because Bush is a conservative and yet so many of these same people abandoned him. His immigration stand was no surprise, he did not deserve that knife in the back and so now a lot of these same people are going after McCain using the same lame arguments.
Here’s why I think Romney will out shine either Hillary or Obama in the general election:
Romney on Hillary’s Freezing Mortgage Rates: “I Don’t Know If That Even Goes On In Russia Today”
And, he can summarize a botload of substance in a five minute stretch compared to Obama’s flowery talk. It will make a difference.
My spouse doesn’t pay any attention at all to politics. The other day, after listening to part of an Obama speech, my spouse looked at me confused and said……”he didn’t say anything”. We need someone who can point that out.
And, btw, I may listen to Rush on occasion……but, I am not part of the extreme right wing of the GOP. I consider myself to be the moderate mainstream conservative that encompasses the base of our party. In fact, I was an Independent most of my life that straddled the fence and usually voted Democrat. I dropped off the fence to the GOP side during the 2000 election. The face of the DNC came clear to me……and, I didn’t want any part of it.
Reagan challenged from the right. He compromised on “his agenda”. I don’t want a candidate who challenges from the left and compromises on “the democrat agenda”.
The country is center right. And, even when Republicans lose elections the center right positions still win out. The Democrat party has had to pull just as far right as the Republican party has had to pull left. It is the “party concept” that is “polarizing” not the politicians. If politicians were individuals with issues rather than individuals with party affilication we would be much better off (isn’t that what Washington warned against in his farewell speech)? But, unfortunately, we must elect our representatives with the system we have.
The main problem the Republican party has is in their “communication skills”. The Democrats get thier message out (albeit often misleading) in one minute sound bites , entertainment, and slogans that stick. The Republicans have the best ideas, and if they can communicate them effectively they win every time. We need a communicator.
Again, I repeat…..
Romney on Hillary’s Freezing Mortgage Rates: “I Don’t Know If That Even Goes On In Russia Today”
What would McCain have said?
Frogg:
It should be remembered that Kerry could out debate Bush too. So what? But who won the election? In fact I would say the best debater is Huckabee over all. It was his performance in the debates that brought him from nowhere.
As for establishment, Romney’s name is familiar because he is a second generation politician.
As for debating the issues, I have never heard how Romney intends to do that whole immigration thing. He does the same thing with that he does with a lot of other things, he finds out what certain people want to hear and he feeds it back to them. that makes them happy.
During the whole immigration debacle I heard that it was impossible to do background checks on illegals, but when Romney says he will deal with these people on a case by case basis, no one seems to wonder how he will manage the logistics of something like that.
I think the race will tighten, but for Romney to win it will have to do more than tighten, it would have to bottom out.
There are primaries after Tuesday, here in Indiana we do not have a primary until May. Texas {which is huge} does not have its primary until March. So we will have to wait and see if this is even over Tuesday to know how much those primaries will win.
Frogg:
I think Romney would be massacred in the general. His overall approval rating is lower than Bush’s among the electorate.
You know what the Democrats will talk about with Romney? They won’t say he was successful, etc. They will say he was a hedge fund manager who became a multi millionare by laying ordinary people off from their jobs.
The only thing that will save him is if he walks away from all this sudden right wing conversion thing and runs as the North Eastern semi liberal Yankee Governor he was.
For instance, the man’s health care plan is the model for Hillary’s. He was accused of not standing up for same sex marriage.
He just should have run as what he was. Moderate on immigration and social issues, conservative on some economic issues and not so much on others…instead he tried to please the antiMcCain people by acting like this big conservative.
Remember the flip flopper thing Bush did to Kerry? The Democrats could return the favor with Romney.
Terrye:
Romney would defeat Hillary. Obama and Romney would be a close fight — but a clean one. I have watched the polls since day one. Remember Hillary and Rudy were supposed to have this in bag. The best Rudy did was third; Hillary is starting to crack. Huckabee came out of know where. Fred was supposed to shift things around — he didn’t do much.
It’s amazing how things can shift from day to day. If Romney were to get the nomination the polls would tighten greatly compared to where they are right now.
It’s amazing though. To me it seems Romney wins every debate. Huckabee is a good public speaker but his ideas are ridiculous. McCain fears going toe-toe with Romney in debates as Romney overwhelming wins every time.
I hear all of you who have doubts about Romney. But, it is because you have not really listened to him. McCain has flip-flopped more in the past year than Romney has in the past decade. It is the media driven image you are reacting to. Romney can put all that to rest in the General election. Most Americans are not against businesses, honest corporations, and successful people. That’s the American dream. Romney can turn that around on them.
Romney expects to fight on past Tuesday
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080202/ap_on_el_pr/romney
Romney ran “comparison ads” during his campaign. They weren’t dirty tricks.
McCain seems to be running the standard Washington establishment dirty tricks:
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http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/02/dirty_tricks_in.html
Dirty tricks in North Dakota?
February 2, 2008 09:52 PM
FARGO, North Dakota – The Romney campaign has complained to the North Dakota attorney general about what it claims are dirty tricks by the McCain campaign.
Jason McBride, who is running North Dakota for the Romney campaign, said the campaign has heard numerous complaints from voters here about anonymous and misleading automated phone calls.
The caller, McBride said, falsely claims to be from the Romney campaign but says positive things about John McCain. He said the caller has a strong “Hispanic accent.â€
McBride said that by using caller ID and the reverse directory, the Romney team has traced the calls to the office of a McCain aide in Michigan. The campaign, he said, lodged a complaint today by e-mail to Atttorney General Wayne Stenehjem.
McCain is a doer, Romney is a talker, and Huckabee is a man trained to make people feel comfortable. Think about it, he is a preacher. We are not electing a debater in chief. Think about it.
I think Hillary would beat Romney. I really do. I think it is a mistake for Republicans to assume all the polls are crap and it really is not true that Romney only has an approval rating of 32%…and if he gets up there and does his Accountant in Chief routine and talks data the electorate will swoon. People are in no mood for that right now. Anything can happen, there are always events that can overtake the race and shape it in ways we do not see right now.
But I have been a staunch Bush supporter and Romney does not inspire me. How will he do with people who do not even want to vote Republican?
Here is another poll H/T memeroandum”> putting McCain and Clinton on top.
It is all academic really, in a short while we will know for sure.