Feb 03 2008
Race Tightening In Home Stretch To Super Tuesday
Polls are actually tightening up in some states (and at times by some pollsters) which means the two mavericks (Obama and McCain) are facing their strongest challenge from the establishment backed candidates (Romney and Clinton). Super Tuesday will be a test of each party’s remaining political strength over their respective base. The problem for both sides of the aisle is they have distilled their base to the point where moderates and independents are not welcomed – which is why each party has a serious maverick challenging the establishment candidate.
A lot of party stalwarts are in denial about how they have chased the moderates and independents from the ‘big tents’ in their quest for purity, but all you need to look at the head-to-head polls to understand that this is exactly what is going on. Obama gives McCain a good run (McCain +.06%), but McCain does best against the establishment Hillary (McCain 1.9%) and Obama romps against the establishment Romney (Obama 18.3%).
The country is definitely leaning left and not ready to support the GOP unless under very special circumstances, like a moderate candidate. This can be seen in the polls where the two establishment candidates go head-to-head (Clinton 12.6%). Romney’s poor showing in the head-to-heads is a clear indication that the ‘more pure’ GOP candidate is not what America wants right now. They prefer someone who is more like Bush than AM Talk Radio. Denying this fact of the polls does not change the reality.
Obama needs to catch Clinton in some key states to keep her from claiming victory on Super Wednesday. The GOP wants to face Hillary to increase their chances of winning. To maximize them they need McCain facing Hillary. A Romney nomination will be the toughest position to pull a win out of no matter which combination is analyzed. So as the polls tighten, Super Tuesday is turning out to be super critical to the direction of the country. And I hope we see the same record turnout so that the country speaks clearly and we learn to deal with what she says. Because right now there is a revolt against the party and media elites dictating our choices – and this year America is definitely pushing back against ‘the establishment’. What we will know on Tuesday is who won – voters or the establishment.
I screwed that link up, but it still works. Just in case, here it is again.
Frogg:
I have listened to Romney. He has totally changed his positions on all sorts of issues.
McCain has made adjustments on issues like immigration, saying he will secure the border first. He has not promised to ship every illegal out of the country. He has said he will make the Bush tax cuts permanent, even though he did not support them originally because they did not have corresponding spending cuts. That was consistent with his fiscal conservatism. He is one of the few Senators in either party who has not used earmarks. This not a flip flop.
But too often Romney wants it both ways. That is what got him into trouble on the timetables for withdrawal from Iraq. If he had just said hell no to timetables rather than some convoluted drawn out conversation about secret timetables etc…he could have spared himself some trouble.
I wanted McCain to win over Bush back in 2000 but the establishment got behind Bush, saw McCain for the Maverick he was, and destroyed McCain over his “temper” and confrontational attitude. And when Bush started to make decisions for this nation…over party and political interests….everybody turned on him as well. So, just who is the establishment here we are talking about? The party?
I’m for whomever will do the best job for this country. To make the right decisions for our nations well being and interests in the world. For all of us. And God knows there’s plenty to do out there. And that means OVER their party interests. Thats why there is only “one” President and not one for each state or interest group or party who all vote and haggle over issues. We have senators and parties and representatives for that.
But, if you want to talk about what the “establishment” is…in DC…it’s political machine based on party and other private interests that may or may not have anything to do with what’s best for this country. If you want to vote for whats best for our nation, then vote for the person you think….is most likely to stand up to those party and other interests when need be and do the right thing!! And who do you think that would be?? Romney?? (I’m laughing).
As is the case with Obama, it’s important to understand that “both” aspects of the above are important. He seems to think that standing up to whatever somebody else wants “is”, in and of itself, doing the best thing for the country. He’s just too young yet. IT’s not enough to just standup to people….you have to have a reason for doing it other than the standing itself. Like a lot of young people..Obama seems confused on this. Yes…he’s standing up to the status quo by bringing the troops home from around the world and withdrawing from the battlefield. But, doing so..would not help our nation..it would, by all estimates, severely injure our nation. He doesn’t seem the least bit concerned about this…and doesn’t want to talk about or hear about those things. No…just standing up..is all that’s needed and that’s all he wants to talk about….change. He’s got some growing up to do yet.
I think the difference is…should Romney win , I would gladly vote for him over the other Hillary or Obama. I have no problem with it. I just think McCain is the right person for the job and I think he’s got the best chance of winning too. (not just the primary but general election too). I think if the RNC wants to “purge” people from their party…perhaps instead of people like McCain…they should start with the pedophiles and closet gay preachers and the quid-pro-quo guys and they guys who earmark hundreds of millions for bridges to no where. That’s where I’d start!
Dirty tricks from McCain? What a bunch of cry babies. Look at the stuff they put out there about McCain…they have a huge cash advantage over him and here they are whining.
What are they going to do when they have to face the Democrats? Talk about dirty tricks.
Dc:
I feel the same way.
I think the thing about Obama that people respond to, is that he makes them believe the world can be a better place, just because you want it to be.
In all his talks about how wrong the war was, I have never heard Obama talk about what he would have done with Hussein other than removing him from power.
“McCain is a doer, Romney is a talker, and Huckabee is a man trained to make people feel comfortable. Think about it, he is a preacher. We are not electing a debater in chief. Think about it.”
— Terrye
Thart is completely false. Talkers don’t make $200 million dollars — the movers and shakers do — although it does make people jealous. Romney knows what it’s like to be President. He already has been. He is a natural leader. Everywhere he goes he is put in place as a leader.
The conservative establishment HATED Reagan. They hated him in California and they hated him when he was running for President. George HW Bush called Regan’s economic proposes “Voodoo Economics” and the press hammered on “Reaganomics” for years before the economy really turned around … remember that it took about two years for the economy to turn around under Reagan.
While Reagan himself had conservative personal values, he said over and over and over again that it was not the place of Washington DC or the federal government to force any particular social agenda onto the people. His goal was to get government off of people’s back, let local states and communities make their own laws and allow people to vote with their feet. He wasn’t a liberal but he acknowledged that many good people were and he didn’t make people feel bad or wrong because they were. That is why so many Democrats voted for him.
There is no political who will lose my vote faster than the social liberal who is out to make America a “liberal country” or a social conservative who is out to make America a “conservative country”. American is made up of thousands of communities that all have their own values and that is a good thing and they should be allowed to exist in peace without being afraid of someone telling them how to live.
I really think both activist liberals and activist conservatives stink.
Well, again, I hear you guys. And, you are right on many issues. Some of the flip-flopp stuff will stick. Most will not (he made adjustments just like McCain). And, he has a few of his own gaffe’s out there (like saying his sons were serving their country by campaigning for him).
None of the candidates are perfect. They are all flawed. McCain has past ethics problems and scandals, McCain has been caught in out and out lies on several occasions. McCain said, in his own book, that “toruture worked on him when he was a POW”. McCain’s “bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” comment. McCain said that “Hillary would be a great President”. McCain has ties to George Soros. And, I don’t even want to pull up anything else out of my head; but, it is still full.
55 Reasons not to vote for McCain
http://www.critical-thinker.org/McCain.aspx
But, mostly, it’s because I know Romney’s flaws. McCains will be a surprise and come out of nowhere. I’m just afraid someone has a tape recording of his patholocial sounding screams of profanity to a collegues up on the Hill that would make the Dean scream sound like baby talk. Especially if he demands someone pull down their pants and lift up their shirt to prove they aren’t wired.
Democrat strategists have talking points pushing McCain as a candidate they, themselves, could get behind. Think they don’t have something on him? I just don’t know. Romney is the candidate the Dems have attacked the most. Why? I just don’t know.
There are gonna be smears and slander against whoever our candidate is.
However, there is a flipside. Don’t you think the same can be said for Obama (who the media has never vetted) and Hillary?
Bottom line….I don’t think Obama has used Washington establishment dirty tricks. And, I don’t think Romney has used Washington establishment dirty tricks. Isn’t that the change we are looking for??????
PS. I apoligize in advance for the link about 55 reasons not to vote for McCain. It is obviously a hit piece, much of it disgusting, and I meant to say so in that post. The point I was trying to make was that much of it is also true , will give caution to some, and are documented in credible sources and by credible people, and can stick, as well.
All of our candidates are flawed.
AJ you are simply wrong on the Republican establishment candidate it is most certainly McCain only need look at his endorsers.
The republican congressional committee called today wanting money and said I had pledged $25.00, something I never did!
I told them I was not interested in donating to a party that would push McCain upon on us and be so asleep as to allow independents and democrats to pick our nominee in the primarys, any money I donate goes to Mitt at this point nothing to the RNC they have paved the way for a niminee that Hillary will chew up and spit out without breaking a sweat. Did anyone watch the debates? McCain is a one note samba — I was a war hero, yea so was JonCarry — supposedly.
McCain admittedly knows zilch about the economy the number one issue in the coming election. Wake up Republicans you are being had.
Nothing against Romney, and while all education and experience is relevant here….running your own company or a large multi-national corp…or making and managing alot of money…is not the same thing as being president of the US.
The 2 “kids” that own founded Goggle would make Romney’s private sector experience and wealth look weak (if we are determining such things by the amount of wealth you earn at such ventures). But, I don’t think that makes them presidential material. Beyond that, to be honest…I’ve sat in a few of those meetings. And I can tell you, big corporations do NOT like to make “changes”. They are like a big oil tankers lumbering on a set course that was long in the making based on the wants and desires of the board and owners. To change course/direction requires enormous resources and takes a long time. When the board brings in a new CEO..they do so to impliment and carry out their interests. Like you said KLMT..Everywhere Romney goes…”hes’ put in place …”. The question is..who is putting him in place to be president and what are their interests? I think many of my indie friends feel Romney is working hard to sell something for somebody else.
None of that is said to disparage Romney. I like him fine. Seems like a nice guy. And anybody who knows me from here, knows I have my own issues with McCain for different reasons. I just don’t know Romney well enough “yet”…and perhaps that’s his campaign’s fault. But, he seems to me to be saying…we’ll be the republicans….and do what real republicans do…because thats’ the best thing for everybody. At least that’s what I get from him. That, and ..”I’m more “republican” than McCain is.
In fact, one that that Romney supporters constantly harp on McCain about is the thing I like most about him….. that he would “abandon” party line and partner with others if he felt it was the right thing to do. That’s what Bush did as well. And I supported him in doing that. Everybody deserves to be respresented in gov. And there is only one president..who has to be for everybody…not just their party. Romney needs to focus more on that message and less on how well he toes RNC rules and regs.
DC:
I was simply pointing out that Romney has shown leadership skills, that he has been a President before. He knows what it is like. The companies he lead are some of the most successful around. That takes leadership. Terrye was implying that Romney had none. Romney’s father was a great man too, his son is even greater. I think many underestimate him.
Point well taken KLMT. The thing is..that’s not what his campaign is selling ..to those of us who “don’t” know him all that well. What they are selling is he’s a conservative who will toe party line. That’s what I was point out,…I’m not so sure that’s helping him either in this nomination process…and certainly it is not helping him in with DNC or Indie voters for the general election. In fact, by most polls…he’s a dead candidate for a general election against either Hillary OR Obama.
I think he (I mean his campaign) needs to get off this….I’m more republcian than you…and start focusing on another message that perhaps would lend more credibility to his leadership skills that you pointed out…and how that benefits “everybody”.
DC:
I don’t disagree with that. I do disagree with the polls. If he did get the nomination, and I still think he has a shot, those polls would tighten up a lot.
What disturbs me most about McCain isn’t his voting record, it’s his personality. I am not sure I want him anywhere near the nuclear button.
No, I was saying that Romney is good at talking to people, around people, with people. blah blah blah…but that is not the same thing as making a difficult stand and sticking with it. Business is business and while I am sure Romney is very smart, so is Bill Gates. That does not mean he is a leader.
CP:
Well I don’t know. I don’t think the fact that he has a temper is a bad thing altogether. For years I have been hearing Republicans complain about Bush not standing up for himself. Won’t have that problem with McCain.
And I do not think McCAin is the establishment guy. The NRO would have picked him if he were. He is the guy who won’t say how high when they say jump…and they know it.
But I think Romney is good man.
All the stuff about McCains “personality”. That’s old ’00 primary fodder that the Bush campaign used against him. That he was unstable, or had bursts of anger, etc., etc., and not fit to be CIC.
You guys are going to have to do better than that. People are obviously happy with McCain “the way he is”. These kind of personal issues are not making McCains numbers go down. (just the opposite) I think you are going to have to think of something else.
I’ll give you a hint….stop thinking of reasons why McCain should not be president…and start thinking of reasons why Romney “should”. And the reason why Romney should be….cannot be …to keep McCain from becoming one. You’ve got to focus on Romney’s strengths and why he should be president…not how to keep McCain from becoming one.