Feb 05 2008
Live Blogging Super Duper Wuper Tuesday – Mitt’s 3rd Place Showing In South Crippling
OK folks, I am finally back in DC and ready to sit down with my scotch and my computer and do some live blogging (delayed for travel of course) of the Super Tuesday historic vote.
What I saw on my flight back (Jet Blue is cool with live TV) was Obama take GA decisively, and his exit poll numbers even stronger than when he whooped Clinton in SC. Still strong with African Americans and young voters, but making gains with women and hispanics and taking the male white vote. I have yet to see the 8:00 PM returns but my guess is they will reflect a surging Obama.
On the GOP side Romney lost WV to a Huckabee-McCain coalition, and I expect to see this repeated as well in the south. I would not be surprised to see Huckabee and McCain beating Romney in the south. OK, let me digest the 8:00 PM news and I will be right back!
8:38 PM Eastern: McCain takes NJ, CT and IL early – which means his leads are large and which also means it is bad news for Romney who only takes his home state. These “winner take all” states will boost McCain well ahead of Romney. It won’t be over today for the GOP, but Romney cannot lose NJ and IL and be considered viable in my opinion.
Democrats — most important attribute: bring needed change 52 percent; best experience 23; empathy 13; best chance to win 9.
…
Republicans — most important attribute: shares my values 44 percent; best experience 25; says what he believes 22; best chance to win 7.
The message seems to be “stay out of the hyper-partisan fringes”, America wants change not experience. The mavericks are giving the establishments a run for their money tonight.
8:50 PM Eastern: Fox News is confirming my expectations in the south. Huckabee has taken AR and AL, but McCain came in second in these states with Mitt a distant 3rd. Those 3rd place showings in the South say all you need to know about Mitt Romney’s chances this year, they are fading fast in the South.
8:54 PM Eastern: McCain adds in CT to his tour de force in the NE where Mitt was supposedly strong. Hillary gets MA but Obama is going to get his fair share. I am double checking my claim of a Romney 3rd in AL. Laura Ingrahm is on missing the big news – Romney is 2nd or 3rd to most states, which means he is not a winner.
8:59 PM Eastern: The McCain juggernaut rolls on with a DE win.
9:01 PM Eastern: No big surprise with Clinton taking NY, but I want to see how much she wins buy with the proportional delegate counts. AZ is not being called, which shows the first big challenge to McCain tonight.
9:06 PM Eastern: Still watching AL to see if Romney comes in 3rd, but Obama has taken DE which means Clinton is not winning big, but I think she is winning. He is making it a fight in CT.
9:15 PM Eastern: The big news of the night I think will be how Romney is looking at weak 3rd place showings across the south. I am looking at GOP races in AL, AR, GA, TN, OK and MO and all show Romney in 3rd place. If Huckabee and McCain trade 1st and 2nd in these states I suggest Mitt realize he cannot win in the heart of the GOP – the South. For a ‘true conservative’ Romney is really doing poorly in the ‘bible belt’.
9:27 PM Eastern: OK, the Romney fade in the South appears to be real. I would predict he is going to be 3rd in AL. Is this a harbinger of a bad night for Mitt? With McCain now taking NY (along with NJ, CT, DE, IL) I would say it is a terrible night for Mitt.
9:47 PM Eastern: It looks safe to say Mitt will be 3rd now in AL, OK, and AR. Let’s see how it goes. A night full of 2nd and 3rd places is going to put Romney out of this. Nearly half the country is voting tonight and Romney may not have more than a couple first places.
10:12 PM Eastern: Mitt’s Southern Fade continues. I am now seeing a 3rd place finish for Mitt in GA, MO and TN – adding to his losing showings in AL, AR and OK. That’s pretty poor showing in my opinion. On Drudge Obama is showing wins in 10 states to Hillary’s 6 big states. That is also not good for the other establishment candidate.
10:20 PM Eastern: I am impressed with Obama as he takes AL, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, UT. That is an impressive list and means there is no clear winner on the Dem side.
10:25 PM Eastern: Yawn… Romney won his second state – UT. His MA and UT wins are just overwhelmed by Huckabee’s wins and Romney’s 3rd place fade in the South. Romney is in real trouble, which is telling for the “true conservative” who was the latest darling of AM talk radio – which has become the kiss of death to each candidate they have tried to push in their purity war.
10:30 PM Eastern: Looks like Romney, being the “true conservative” and therefore the establishment candidate has picked up another caucus in ND – which is an exercise by the political machine in a state, not the voters. I am watching MO, CO and CA to see where this ends up. I am surprised Romney is speaking now (after Huckabee) with so many states still out. That tells me his numbers look like crap – because he would want to maximize his TV time, not go premature like this giving his speech at 10:33 PM and those big states (plus AZ) still not called. It is ‘all done’ no matter what Mitt says giving his early night.
10:39 PM Eastern: The Amnesty Hypochondriacs took it on the chin big time tonight in AZ. McCain has been declared the winner in ground zero of the purity wars, the immigration war, the ‘true conservative’ war – and the hyper-partisans lost. McCain whooped butt on Romney, and when he didn’t Huckabee tool over. Huckabee took TN (with a
3rd place Romney showing) and GA which gives him 5 wins, much better than the ‘true conservative’ Romney. Look for some dejection tomorrow on Conservative Talk Radio and at the “True Conservative” Blogs. Their guy was pummeled from coast to coast. Now we await CA and CO.
10:46 PM Eastern: Preliminary delegate counts are showing some stunning numbers:
McCain won 227 delegates to 36 for Romney and 24 for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. A total of 1,023 delegates are up for grabs in 21 states.
Overall, McCain led with 331 delegates, to 129 for Romney and 69 for Huckabee. It takes 1,191 to win the nomination at this summer’s convention in St. Paul, Minn.
On the dem side it looks like an Obama squeaker:
David Plouffe, on a conference call just now, offered the Obama campaign’s estimate of where they stand at this moment in terms of delegates.
“We are, in terms of delegates, ahead currently: about 606 to 534, in terms of pledged delegates awarded tonight,” he said.
It looks like Romney took the biggest hit of the night (despite what’s-his-name Ron Paul). Hillary is the second biggest loser – she is basically tied and I would bet the voters continue to turn on her like they did with Romney.
10:46 PM Eastern: Klutzy Klintoon just tried to make a lame and embarrassing reference to deaths in southern states from tornados tonight and just boggled it completely. She came off shamelessly opportunistic. She is rushing through her ‘speech’ and is just horrible. Gawd I hope she wins the nomination, it is the best hope for the GOP (McCain) to win in November.
11:06 PM Eastern: According to the results we are seeing my prediction from earlier in the evening held up – Romney faded to 3rd across the south which makes him just unelectable. He is 3rd in AL, AR, MO (dodgy) , OK and TN. The one state still out is GA, but that is not going to help Mitt. These 3rd place finishes are a sign of a huge weakness. If you don’t have the south you don’t have the GOP base. The “true conservative” failed in the heartland of conservatism.
11:17 PM Eastern: Romney takes another small state caucus in MT, which only underscores his problem – he wins when the GOP stalwarts, the political machine, control the outcome. But in primaries, where voters speak ‘independently’, he loses.
11:36 PM Eastern: I would say it looks like Mitt will take the caucuses in CO (no surprise there, he is the establishment candidate, the ‘true conservative) and McCain could win CA. And that would be the second biggest story of the night. Romney wins caucuses and fails in primaries, but the big story is how Romney faded to 3rd across the South (he is not 3rd in MO).
11:39 PM Eastern: Senator Joe Lieberman at the McCain speech tonight – what a symbol of traitorous compromise that so many Americans are trying to support by rejecting the hyper-partisans and their establishment candidates (Clinton and Romney).
11:44 PM Eastern: Boy, MO is the race of the night (so far). With 91% in it is a battle between Huck and Mac on the right (2500 vote differential for Mac) and Hill and Barrack on the left (9,000 vote differential for Hill). Obama took CO, and it looks like Romney has CO as well.
12:03 AM Eastern: Looks like McCain will eek out that MO win, and Romney has sealed his fate as the big loser, ending up 3rd in that bell weather state. Now all eyes are on CA.
12:20 AM Eastern – Final: McCain does win CA and MO. Hillary takes CA by a large margin. But the race is pretty much over – McCain wins big, Romney loses big and the dems tied to fight on.
I see…the coalition formed in the caucuses in West Virginia is a win for McCain and Huckabee but the win by Mitt in ND is a win by the establishment party machine, not the voters. Your agenda is showing.
Remember, you reap what you sow. You believe the media at your own peril and that is what you have done. We’ll see how happy everyone is with another failed moderate candidate and 8 more years of the party you all left.
Super Tuesday…
It’s a beautiful day in CA and there’s the smell of voting in the air!
That’s because, after a week or so of heavy rain, all the soot and smog and other airborne particles that hover above LA and other population centers have been cleansed, with…
So Klimt are you one of those over the top conservatives who Terrye talks about? One of the ones who talks bad about other republican?. As republicans should we just love everybody that everybody likes and keep on chugging in a love feast?
This is my straight talk express. John McCain did everything in his power to undermine a sitting president, not only that he often lead the charge, why……he was mean, spiteful, and hateful, I don’t care what party he belongs to, I can’t stand him. I don’t care who he chooses as VP. I just don’t know how I could vote for him except Hillary in comparison is much worse for the country.
I heard some real crap about McCain this past week. And it got worse as the week moved on. Even some of the ‘facts’ were old and had little or no bearing on this election.
But, I still cannot get excited about McCain.
He will make a terrible candidate, and, if he wins, a Carteresque president.
As far as this being the 2nd inning of the GWOT, you might be right. However, much of the kinetic action has been fought. We have a 32 – 3 lead in the second inning. We can take some losses. Regretfully, we will give up some hits under Obama or Clinton. I think McCain would keep the pressure up – but, who will follow the maverick during the hard times. McCain was bellyaching and scolding and acting up for much of the GWOT. To me, he looked and acted like Senator Boxer or Senator Schumer. He may be right on the war, but he is just as belligerent on things he is very wrong about.
Again, why should I want to be Maverick McCain’s wingman?
I don’t know when he will chase after one bogie or back me up on another.
My basis is since 2000. During that time he has given me nothing to base my trust on. And, will he have time to win me over by actions during the campaign. I think not.
Thus, while I will trundle to the polls in November and scribble in McCain’s dot I will not donate to his campaign. I don’t care that much. I won’t really care to make certain to really scribble in the dot on election day.
The only conservative presidents, and I use that term loosely considering they have both been hated by conservatives during their presidencies, are Reagan and GWB. The rest were, gasp, MODERATES: Nixon, Ford, Bush, Sr. What was Eisenhower?
Wow,
Nixon, Ford, Bush Sr., and Eisenhower…
Amazing Presidents. Kinda liked Bush Sr., but dumb enough to vote for an odd bird (Perot). That is the problem we have here. We are going to face a hard core liberal Reagan in Obama. With very liberal ideas that he can present is a very dreamy fashion. He could easily reverse the trends of the last 25 years and send us right back to the era of LBJ.
Do we want to face him with a Maverick Senator?
Are we going to be able to challenge Obama with a Moderate?
With our very own Mondale?
The issue in the South is the fact Romney is Mormon.
Vanderbilt University has documented that 57% of evangelicals have an anti-Mormon bias – and they are quite strong in the South.
Sorry, but there’s just no other conclusion.
Romney’s support from the likes of Rick Roberts and Laura Ingraham also hurt (my co-blogger, who lives in CA) switched when Roberts launched an attack on McCain based on allegations that had been long discredited.
I’m a conservative and I love President Bush and so does most of the party. And exactly who within the party didn’t love Reagan? Probably just McCain on both counts. But then when all you listen to is the media instead of going to the source it’s no wonder your whole premise is incorrect.
Yeah, and those darn moderates…look how well they did?
How does that saying go? Those who fail to remember history are destined to repeat it?
Harold,
That is one of the radio slugs I was mentioning. He dragged out a bunch of crap about McCain brown nosing for bennies while a POW. Complete crap.
The right-wing radio types hurt their own cause. But, they have been hurting their cause for about two years now. They have not recognized that they have never been voted into office. It’s hard for me to explain. Basically, they have been trashing any move they do not agree with – even if the direction is still conservative. And, they have enjoyed the power. They have demagogued issues and people without any real basis.
Rick Roberts is just one of the examples. He constantly rants about illegal aliens. There is no attempt to meet at a reasonable point.
But, I don’t base my opinions of McCain on demagogues. He too rants and raves. He too is a demagogue. I don’t see what people see in him – limited to the last two or three decades.
Kathie:
McCain belongs to the NRP. Why would a conservative have to make concessions to other conservatives? And he must.
I think McCain will be an incompetent leader. Russia is thrilled with him! They will expand. I don’t even think he has the intellectual ability to deal with an emerging China. Everything revolves around economics. McCain doesn’t understand economics! Does he even care about domestic issues? Does he even understand them?! You already described his personality: spiteful, grudges, angry, stubborn. Does that sound like a leader?
I’ll vote for him because the other options are much worse. We agree. But if he wants to put a liberal or a lite-liberal in as his V.P. (anyone in the NRP), he’s going to far (that’s why I stated I won’t vote for him)… I want to see members of my own party with high power in his cabinet. He should be looking towards Romney — who understand these issues far better than he does — and has the money to keep him alive against an Obama. But I’m not so sure Romney would want to align himself with McCain. It will be interesting to see, if he is indeed the nominee, who he picks and how far left he steers.
If McCain’s early lead in California holds up, then this race really is just about over. Only 14% reporting so far, but McCain looks surprisingly strong. (what about those polls claiming Romney had a big lead?)
Kathie,
Several here have a problem with anyone who disagrees with them. Some like to tell everyone how they’ve been threatened and blackmailed by all the “evil” conservatives.
They hate Rush, Malkin, Coulter, Ingrahm and believe everything bad that’s ever been said about them.
They say that they are just stating their opinion, butthen accuse everyone who disagrees with them of being hateful, nasty and mean.
Many are Independents whose real problem is they don’t have a party and they wants ours.
AJ, I think some of that scotch is going to your head. You are starting to sound like Ann Coulter (but, from the other side).
I’m enjoying watching these returns (and, I’m a Romney supporter).
For all of you who want to trash conservatives, I would only say that I am not worried (as a modeate conservative).
Here’s why:
1. Every single candidate was fighting his arse off to prove he was the “true conservative” candidate.
2. Every candidate is supportive of Bush’s policies in Iraq, GWOT, Iran, and any other Jihadist threat. No one was running from Bush’s foreign policy record.
2. Every candidate pledges to keep taxes low and bring the budget back to a balance (that may be hard to do with a Dem Congress).
3. Social issues? …..I think they all hope none of this comes up at the Federal or WH level.
4. All pledge the right kind of judges (I still don’t trust McCain on this). I don’t think he cares. But, atleaset he pledged.
Conservatism is alive and well in the GOP. No one candidate had it all; but, the combination of the three look good. (McCain – national security; Huckabee – social issues; Romney – economic issues). Don’t you get it? They are all pieces of the “true conservative”.
McCain’s problems with the base go beyond him having a more liberal position on some big issues. He has shown, as much openly vile , distain and disrespect with a portion of his own party over the past decade, as Ann Coulter has shown to him. He brought it on himself.
I’ll vote for McCain in the general election if he is the nominee. I won’t feel good about it; but, I’ll do it. There will be a lot who won’t though. And, I think McCain knows that he needs the conservative base to win the general election. He’ll have to swallow his pride, cool down his temper, and pander to the conservatives to win. But, isn’t that what politics is all about?
I would have to point out one more thing…..
If the candidates end up McCain vs Hillary….then, the Washington establishment proceeds and nothing in Washington changes. And, the American people will be back in 2012, with a more sour mood, to finish the job they started this year.
Whippet1,
I don’t want your GOP – trust me. But your GOP wants (and needs) me!
That is the reality my friend. GOP stays minority as long as purity is their goal.
AJ,
And you want and need us. Quite a quandary isn’t it?
Frogg,
I liked that…very well said (only I don’t trust anything McCain has pledged)
It’s shaping up as a really depressing election and some tough times ahead. McCain is such a flawed candidate, it’s hard to see him winning in Nov. Matched against Obama, McCain will get crushed. The contrast will be striking — the fresh-faced, African-American Senator with the soaring and uplifting oratory versus the tired, old, surly “maverick” who happens to agree with much of the agenda of his opponent, except he sounds agitated all the time. Against Clinton, his only hope is if he can somehow get the conservative base energized – even if it’s to vote against Hillary – while getting a good chunk of moderate dems. But, an energized base is much more powerful if it’s for something positive or proactive, vice to stop a negative consequence. Unless McCain changes course soon, and starts to reach out to base conservatives, this ain’t happening, and McCain will have slim chances in Nov.
It’s apparent that Mitt just hasn’t caught on with enough conservatives to overcome McCain. I think it’s true that his mormonism was a definite issue in many of the southern states, where the evangelicals stayed with Huck. In most of the rest of the country, conservatives favored Mitt over McCain & Huck, but it was only lukewarm support, probably because of his johnny-come-lately tag that has some merit. The anti-McCain sentiment by conservatives has not been enough to overcome the moderate voters now coalescing around McCain — the GOP establishmnent candidate (to correct AJ, again). Mainly bceause they’ve bought into the notion that McCain has best chance of winning in Nov. This is folly, based on polls that are meaningless this far out.
The problem for conservative voters is that we didn’t have a “dog in the fight”. Fred was practically ideal on the issues, but he lacked energy and seemed uninterested or uncommitted in his lackluster campaign. When he finally showed some life, it was too little, too late, and then it was over. On the economy and national defense, Rudy might have been the best conservative but he also ran a lousy campaign and also had risk with lots of baggage for the general. So that left Mitt, who is fairly conservative across the board, but had some nuanced or outright position changes from the past to deal with. However, considering he was governor of very liberal state but had governed quite conservatively, and taking his word on current positions and his past accomplishments in business and with the Olympics, Mitt became the most viable, conservative GOP candidate. As much as I would like to see Mitt turn it around next week and later in PA & Ohio & Tex, I just don’t see it happening. McCain has the mo with the media and the GOP establishmnet squaring up behind him, and with Huck draining votes from Romney.
So, it looks like we’ll have to make due with McCain, or … not. Conservatives will have to decide whether a GOP party that has moved left, in some cases left of center, is worth backing. The short-term risk of not backing McCain is the damage the dems could inflict while controlling the WH & both houses, but the long-term gain is a potentially re-focused and united conservative-based GOP.
Right now, I would definitely vote for McCain based on Iraq and judges, and hope he holds to his recent pledges of keeping Bush tax cuts permanent and for border security first.