Feb 05 2008
Live Blogging Super Duper Wuper Tuesday – Mitt’s 3rd Place Showing In South Crippling
OK folks, I am finally back in DC and ready to sit down with my scotch and my computer and do some live blogging (delayed for travel of course) of the Super Tuesday historic vote.
What I saw on my flight back (Jet Blue is cool with live TV) was Obama take GA decisively, and his exit poll numbers even stronger than when he whooped Clinton in SC. Still strong with African Americans and young voters, but making gains with women and hispanics and taking the male white vote. I have yet to see the 8:00 PM returns but my guess is they will reflect a surging Obama.
On the GOP side Romney lost WV to a Huckabee-McCain coalition, and I expect to see this repeated as well in the south. I would not be surprised to see Huckabee and McCain beating Romney in the south. OK, let me digest the 8:00 PM news and I will be right back!
8:38 PM Eastern: McCain takes NJ, CT and IL early – which means his leads are large and which also means it is bad news for Romney who only takes his home state. These “winner take all” states will boost McCain well ahead of Romney. It won’t be over today for the GOP, but Romney cannot lose NJ and IL and be considered viable in my opinion.
Democrats — most important attribute: bring needed change 52 percent; best experience 23; empathy 13; best chance to win 9.
…
Republicans — most important attribute: shares my values 44 percent; best experience 25; says what he believes 22; best chance to win 7.
The message seems to be “stay out of the hyper-partisan fringes”, America wants change not experience. The mavericks are giving the establishments a run for their money tonight.
8:50 PM Eastern: Fox News is confirming my expectations in the south. Huckabee has taken AR and AL, but McCain came in second in these states with Mitt a distant 3rd. Those 3rd place showings in the South say all you need to know about Mitt Romney’s chances this year, they are fading fast in the South.
8:54 PM Eastern: McCain adds in CT to his tour de force in the NE where Mitt was supposedly strong. Hillary gets MA but Obama is going to get his fair share. I am double checking my claim of a Romney 3rd in AL. Laura Ingrahm is on missing the big news – Romney is 2nd or 3rd to most states, which means he is not a winner.
8:59 PM Eastern: The McCain juggernaut rolls on with a DE win.
9:01 PM Eastern: No big surprise with Clinton taking NY, but I want to see how much she wins buy with the proportional delegate counts. AZ is not being called, which shows the first big challenge to McCain tonight.
9:06 PM Eastern: Still watching AL to see if Romney comes in 3rd, but Obama has taken DE which means Clinton is not winning big, but I think she is winning. He is making it a fight in CT.
9:15 PM Eastern: The big news of the night I think will be how Romney is looking at weak 3rd place showings across the south. I am looking at GOP races in AL, AR, GA, TN, OK and MO and all show Romney in 3rd place. If Huckabee and McCain trade 1st and 2nd in these states I suggest Mitt realize he cannot win in the heart of the GOP – the South. For a ‘true conservative’ Romney is really doing poorly in the ‘bible belt’.
9:27 PM Eastern: OK, the Romney fade in the South appears to be real. I would predict he is going to be 3rd in AL. Is this a harbinger of a bad night for Mitt? With McCain now taking NY (along with NJ, CT, DE, IL) I would say it is a terrible night for Mitt.
9:47 PM Eastern: It looks safe to say Mitt will be 3rd now in AL, OK, and AR. Let’s see how it goes. A night full of 2nd and 3rd places is going to put Romney out of this. Nearly half the country is voting tonight and Romney may not have more than a couple first places.
10:12 PM Eastern: Mitt’s Southern Fade continues. I am now seeing a 3rd place finish for Mitt in GA, MO and TN – adding to his losing showings in AL, AR and OK. That’s pretty poor showing in my opinion. On Drudge Obama is showing wins in 10 states to Hillary’s 6 big states. That is also not good for the other establishment candidate.
10:20 PM Eastern: I am impressed with Obama as he takes AL, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, UT. That is an impressive list and means there is no clear winner on the Dem side.
10:25 PM Eastern: Yawn… Romney won his second state – UT. His MA and UT wins are just overwhelmed by Huckabee’s wins and Romney’s 3rd place fade in the South. Romney is in real trouble, which is telling for the “true conservative” who was the latest darling of AM talk radio – which has become the kiss of death to each candidate they have tried to push in their purity war.
10:30 PM Eastern: Looks like Romney, being the “true conservative” and therefore the establishment candidate has picked up another caucus in ND – which is an exercise by the political machine in a state, not the voters. I am watching MO, CO and CA to see where this ends up. I am surprised Romney is speaking now (after Huckabee) with so many states still out. That tells me his numbers look like crap – because he would want to maximize his TV time, not go premature like this giving his speech at 10:33 PM and those big states (plus AZ) still not called. It is ‘all done’ no matter what Mitt says giving his early night.
10:39 PM Eastern: The Amnesty Hypochondriacs took it on the chin big time tonight in AZ. McCain has been declared the winner in ground zero of the purity wars, the immigration war, the ‘true conservative’ war – and the hyper-partisans lost. McCain whooped butt on Romney, and when he didn’t Huckabee tool over. Huckabee took TN (with a
3rd place Romney showing) and GA which gives him 5 wins, much better than the ‘true conservative’ Romney. Look for some dejection tomorrow on Conservative Talk Radio and at the “True Conservative” Blogs. Their guy was pummeled from coast to coast. Now we await CA and CO.
10:46 PM Eastern: Preliminary delegate counts are showing some stunning numbers:
McCain won 227 delegates to 36 for Romney and 24 for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. A total of 1,023 delegates are up for grabs in 21 states.
Overall, McCain led with 331 delegates, to 129 for Romney and 69 for Huckabee. It takes 1,191 to win the nomination at this summer’s convention in St. Paul, Minn.
On the dem side it looks like an Obama squeaker:
David Plouffe, on a conference call just now, offered the Obama campaign’s estimate of where they stand at this moment in terms of delegates.
“We are, in terms of delegates, ahead currently: about 606 to 534, in terms of pledged delegates awarded tonight,” he said.
It looks like Romney took the biggest hit of the night (despite what’s-his-name Ron Paul). Hillary is the second biggest loser – she is basically tied and I would bet the voters continue to turn on her like they did with Romney.
10:46 PM Eastern: Klutzy Klintoon just tried to make a lame and embarrassing reference to deaths in southern states from tornados tonight and just boggled it completely. She came off shamelessly opportunistic. She is rushing through her ‘speech’ and is just horrible. Gawd I hope she wins the nomination, it is the best hope for the GOP (McCain) to win in November.
11:06 PM Eastern: According to the results we are seeing my prediction from earlier in the evening held up – Romney faded to 3rd across the south which makes him just unelectable. He is 3rd in AL, AR, MO (dodgy) , OK and TN. The one state still out is GA, but that is not going to help Mitt. These 3rd place finishes are a sign of a huge weakness. If you don’t have the south you don’t have the GOP base. The “true conservative” failed in the heartland of conservatism.
11:17 PM Eastern: Romney takes another small state caucus in MT, which only underscores his problem – he wins when the GOP stalwarts, the political machine, control the outcome. But in primaries, where voters speak ‘independently’, he loses.
11:36 PM Eastern: I would say it looks like Mitt will take the caucuses in CO (no surprise there, he is the establishment candidate, the ‘true conservative) and McCain could win CA. And that would be the second biggest story of the night. Romney wins caucuses and fails in primaries, but the big story is how Romney faded to 3rd across the South (he is not 3rd in MO).
11:39 PM Eastern: Senator Joe Lieberman at the McCain speech tonight – what a symbol of traitorous compromise that so many Americans are trying to support by rejecting the hyper-partisans and their establishment candidates (Clinton and Romney).
11:44 PM Eastern: Boy, MO is the race of the night (so far). With 91% in it is a battle between Huck and Mac on the right (2500 vote differential for Mac) and Hill and Barrack on the left (9,000 vote differential for Hill). Obama took CO, and it looks like Romney has CO as well.
12:03 AM Eastern: Looks like McCain will eek out that MO win, and Romney has sealed his fate as the big loser, ending up 3rd in that bell weather state. Now all eyes are on CA.
12:20 AM Eastern – Final: McCain does win CA and MO. Hillary takes CA by a large margin. But the race is pretty much over – McCain wins big, Romney loses big and the dems tied to fight on.
What is your definition of hyper-partisan fringes if you don’t consider Obama to be part of them? He’s about as far out on the “fringes” as you can get!
It is going to be a long night. I was listening to Fox and they talked about the whole Dole/Romney/McCain/Limbaugh thing and it was so silly.
So Dole tells Limbaugh that he is not fair to McCain {which he is not, he is way over the top} and Romney responds by saying he is glad Dole does not like him because Dole is a loser {more or less} and then McCain says Romney owes war hero Dole an apology.
This is getting embarrassing. Someone needs to give Limbaugh better drugs and settle him down. Even Nina Easton said he was out of line and her husband works for Romney.
I think the whole thing has been too negative and it is turning Republicans off. This is not good.
Obama has made a point of reaching out to Republicans. He also talks about reconciliation and hope in his speeches. I am not buying it, but Obama is trying to avoid a lot of partisan rhetoric. He actually co sponsored a bill on earmarks with Oklahoma Senator Coburn. It might be rhetoric but it is working and people see him as less polarizing than Hillary. He has that in common with McCain who has the respect of 72% of the Republicans {according to Pew} and has an overall approval rating over 50%.
None of the other candidates have such broad appeal as Obama and McCain.
Whippet1: A hyper-partisan fringe = a conservative.
Klimt,
You got that right! And it took 2 moderates to form a “coalition” to bring down Romney in West Virginia. Let’s see how that plays out in the general. Shall we say President Clinton or Obama?
AJ,
Where’s the Independent party’s most most important attribute?
Wow,
Maybe someone is playing the newies for chumps.
We’ve got a McCain/Dole or McCain/Perot ticket folks!!!
I am so excited. So very excited!!!
Jumping for joy… Yea!!!
Maybe a McCain/Kerry ticket!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is something to hope for…
Hope
Glad I didn’t donate nuthin to any of these politicians this year!!!
Better save it for the taxes, eh…
I’M A CONSERVATIVE, I don’t like Mitt’s fight, fight, fight, and I don’t like John McCain either. I don’t like his style, his anger, his nit-picking and a whole lot more. Not all conservatives are over the top.
Obama is a sweet guy, haven’t a clue how he would make the world better, how he would bring republicans and dems together between leaving Iraq and finishing the job unless on course you don’t really care. And Hillary I can’t stand and think the country would not benefit from the Clinton machine back in power. I think what people are running away from is the terrible politics that the Clintons brought into being. Hillary calling the President of the United States “pathetic”. That kind of talk would have sent my children to their rooms for a long time and someone aspiring to be president of this country talking that way is the kind of personal politics that the electorate is rejecting.
McCain will win in November….there are LOTS of good reasons why. We’ll see.
IveHadIt,
Let us see…
Let us say President Bush continues wiping al-Qaeda butt in Iraq and Afghanistan. Will the war be a reason to vote for McCain? Will Bush’s success derail McCain?
Let us say someone asks McCain for proof he was a valiant foot-soldier during the Reagan presidency. Hmmmm. I don’t remember him.
So we think of a more current McCain. The one that pissed all over Bush whenever the chips were down. Trashing good people.
To me, McCain reminds me of badgering Democrats like Boxer and Schumer.
He is a maverick. He runs alone. I will not follow him or give him the benefit of the doubt. I don’t trust him. Not at all. My lack of trust does not come from the same reserve that holds for the Clintons. He is not a crook. He is not a purely grasping political slug. But I don’t trust him because I don’t know where he comes from or where he is going. I don’t see a pattern – other than being a maverick. Why follow a maverick? Why listen to a maverick? Let him run on his own!!!
Ivehadit:
Did you contemplate Obama vs. McCain? It doesn’t sound very pretty for McCain.
A very prudent move would be to put Romney in as V.P. .. that would assuage me somewhat. I’m not sure if Romney would want to align himself with McCain, though. I don’t see a very competent leader in McCain — I could be wrong — but sorry I just don’t.
The scary thing is:
What will McCain behave like when he can’t fundraise and gets wiped out in the general election?
How will he behave in the Senate after a humiliating loss?
McCain will run with the Huck.
I feel sorry for the Huck…
We are only in the second inning of the WOT.
Also, Kathie, I think McCain will pick a conservative southern vp that has not run in this election. Huck is not conservative on many issues….He will have a spot in the government is my guess, just not vp. Just a guess!
No, a hyper partisan is not a conservative, unless you think that everyone that disagrees with you is a liberal.
So are all these “conservatives” really going to vote for the Democrat or sit out the election? And then when Obama starts naming judges…are they going to refrain from bitching?
I don’t think so.
The problem is there is a difference between the talking heads who claim to be conservatives, and everyday people who vote the way they want to.
It seems like this was not a great night for talk radio hosts and pundits.
I think that is what disturbs me the most, the complete disrepect and disdain that some Republicans show for their fellow Republicans and their opinions. Sad.
And some of that stuff going around about McCain and his war record was just disgusting. Unsubstantiated and disgusting. People who would use that kind of thing to win an election really should be ashamed of themselves.
Utah governor and AG just endorsed McCain.
Looks like Hillary is on her way to winning the Democratic nomination. McCain looks good to win the Republican nomination.
The issue is the voter turnout.
Kathie:
That would be the biggest blunder in the race so far. If McCain takes Huckabee as his V.P. he will alienate conservatives to the core. I won’t vote for him if he does something that stupid — most conservatives wouldn’t then either.