Feb 06 2008
Obama Edges Clinton In Delegates, Democrats Rudderless
Clinton won the big states, but the proportional allocation of delegates allowed Obama to take the delegate lead from her anyway:
In a surprise twist after a chaotic Super Tuesday, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) passed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in network tallies of the number of delegates the candidates racked up last night.
Clinton was portrayed in many news accounts as the night’s big winner, but Obama’s campaign says he wound up with a higher total where it really counts — the delegates who will choose the party’s nominee at this summer’s Democratic convention.
With the delegate count still under way, NBC News said Obama appears to have won around 840 delegates in yesterday’s contests, while Clinton earned about 830 — “give or take a few,†Tim Russert, the network’s Washington bureau chief, said on the “Today†show.
Clinton will use those “Super Delegates” the Democrat party machine holds onto so they can take control from the people when needed to claim she still has the lead. But if you look at delegates selected from primaries and caucuses alone – the voice of the people – she is in a fight for her life.
The democrats may be able to do for the presidential race in 2008 what they did for the last Congress on Iraq – screw up royally. Iraq is a running success and the Dem Congress has less public support than the evil President George Bush. The left has a battle royale raging (while the GOP battle is over, just some aren’t ready to admit their defeat – again). I bet this one goes to convention and back room deals with the Super Delegates (which is another word for Congressional bribes for pet projects).
You can’t have two captains leading anything, so the dems will struggle for months all the while moving more and more left to hold their hyper-partisan base in line. Truly and unexpected gift to the staggering GOP.
The Dems are being torn because they are still allowing independents to vote in their primary. So their primary isn’t a reflection of what Democrats think or want, it is a reflection of what the population in general wants.
Take California (cue the Propellerheads) … Twice as many Democrat ballots cast as Republican … BUT … the Democrat primary was open to independents, the Republican primary was closed to only Republicans.
The “open” primary is how the Dems are keeping their party from being pulled too far out to left field. The Republicans are rejecting being pulled too far right on their own.
If Clinton and Obama end up being on the same ticket, will that increase the odds of a WH win?
Crosspatch
Please read the exit polls. In all the primaries closed open or drunk caucus they all self identify with about 2 % opposite party crossover and on average 18% independents.
Every ‘closed ‘ primary has a cut off date for eligibility and it is a simple matter of changing registration to participate.
The data is there if you only choose to see it.
As to the number of party voters, that is simply the first black / first woman historic cat fight providing an interest to participate above historic norms with Obama attracting a group of new young voters in the 18-24 bracket per the exit polls, but even they are not in that great of numbers. It is the simple political food fight causing the rise in numbers and likely will have no correlation to the general since they are coming out of an existing voter base.
With our lackluster field and discontent they also smell a little blood on the water.
But in Fl for example we had more rep than dem turnout.
The highest bias was where Bill fired up racial overtones to the SC primary. Most others you are seeing are not really all that far from historic norms if you compare them and they are of course comparing them to 2004 when Kerry had very low turnout for primaries to give the maximum differential.
You’re dreaming if you think the tight dem race will hurt them in Nov. If HRC squeeks out the winner, Obama will surely be the #2. If Obama forges ahead, it’s uncertain who his #2 would be, but not likely HRC (and her high negatives), unless it was the only way he could garner enough delegates to secure the nomination. In any case, the dems will be united, and with Obama assured to be on the ticket, fully energized. I would expect to see the highest ever turnout (by far) of young voters, unfortunately overwhelmingly for the dems, and they’ll get plenty of independents, too.
With Obama at the top, the old, cranky McCain will be crushed. If it’s HRC, McCain’s slim hope is to have the conservative base behind him, but his past indicates he would rather poke them (us) in the eye. Let’s see how he does at the CPAC.
(I hate saying this, but … the GOP’s/McCain’s best chance is if another world event happens that places national security front & center for everyone … the closer to Nov the better.)