al-Qaeda has decided – too late in my opinion – to stop killing Muslims as a way to impress the very same Muslims on how Islam would be under al-Qaeda’s Islamo Fascist rule:

Al-Qaeda militants operating here have shifted tactics to try to improve their image among Iraqis and avoid the mass civilian killings that alienated the public in Baghdad and other cities, the U.S. military says.
The changes include warning locals to take cover before bomb attacks, relaxing the enforcement of strict Islamic laws and staging fewer attacks on Iraqi police.

The strategy has made the population of Mosul less likely to follow the example of Iraqis elsewhere who have turned on al-Qaeda, U.S. commanders say. U.S. and Iraqi forces may have to work harder to retake Iraq’s third-largest city, which is the militant group’s largest remaining urban stronghold.

Desperate times call for desperate acts. The problem for al-Qaeda is the tens of thousands of dead and crippled Muslim victims they produced over the last few years. Blood oaths don’t disappear so easily. Not too mention al-Qaeda also is facing an increasingly strong Iraqi security force:

For U.S. forces to draw down in Iraq, Iraqi security forces must begin taking the lead in combat and security operations. Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraqi, or MNSTCI, reports Iraqi Security Forces grew by 124,000 in 2007, or about 30 percent from 2006 numbers.

“Our object is for 2008 to take off the table the complaint and the fact the Iraqi Army cannot sustain itself,” said Lt. Gen. James Dubik, commander of MNSTCI.

In the last year, the Iraqi military added 67,184 personnel, an increase of about 57 percent from a year ago. The Ministry of the Interior, which includes National Police, Iraqi Police Services and Department of Border Enforcement, counted 57,352 additional recruits, an increase of almost 20 percent. The Iraqi Police Services grew by 19 percent, while the National Police expanded by 33 percent during 2007.

As of January, Iraqi Security Forces numbered more than 530,000 personnel, split between the Ministry of Interior, which includes police forces, and the Ministry of Defense, representing the military.

Finally, the decimation of al-Qaeda has been due to a wave of intelligence tips from locals. I doubt those will dry up any time soon – so the warnings that go out to locals will be picked up by security forces. No one wants bombs going off in their neighborhoods, especially when the rest of the country is peacefully rebuilding a new future. I doubt this will do more than slightly delay the final defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq.