Feb 12 2008
McCain & Huckabee In VA: Unity Has Power – Live Blogging The Potomac Primaries
VA: McCain Big Win (+8-9%), Obama Crushing Win (+~27%)
There’s a minor battle brewing in VA. It seems the social conservatives have come out in large numbers in the western part of the state (more my roots than outside DC where I live). Exit polls show over 50% of GOP voters think McCain is not conservative enough – well duh! Count me in! But he is also more electable at the moment. A large number also say they can support him, so that shows well for the GOP.
And that is the big news of the night. Obama is walking away with this one (maybe over 60%), but the GOP turnout is larger than anyone would have expected and will be a sign of what is possible if the two sides join together. Here in NOVA, Dem turnout in our little precinct (which is quite conservative) is maybe 2-3 Dems. But with the large conservative turnout outside NOVA my bet is VA will show the GOP competitive with the Dems when the full governing coalition gets out and votes. My prediction is McCain wins by at least 5% and the GOP shows it does have the voters to beat even Obama if he wins the Dem nomination.
7:50 PM Eastern: Many voters (my daughter included) are stuck in lines waiting to vote. The ice storm that hit NOVA and snarled traffic will lower the vote there and reduce McCain’s and Hillary’s numbers. 15% in and there is only 2,000 votes (2%) separate McCain and Huckabee.
7:55 PM Eastern: Reader Terrye was kind enough to find the link to the VA state results. With around 35% precincts reporting in McCain has jumped ahead by 2400 votes and 2%.
8:00 PM Eastern: OK, 40% of precincts reporting and McCain now leads by 4,000 votes and 3.3%
8:04 PM Eastern: McCain’s lead continues to hold with 41% report in he has 4,000 lead which equals 3%. It seems Huckabee’s strongest areas are reporting early, with McCain’s areas coming later. Apparently the big GOP wave may not materialize.
8:08 PM Eastern: Obama takes DC – no surprise there. Could be 3 to 1.
8:11 PM Eastern: McCain grows lead with 46% reporting in. He has 71,833 to Huckabee’s 66,084, which translates into a 5,000 vote lead and almost 4%. BTW, dem turnout is swamping GOP turnout – (269K-D, 151K-R)
8:15 PM Eastern: Not sure where Fox is getting their numbers – but they have it a lot closer than VA – who counts the actual votes. With 50% precincts in McCain has a 5300 vote lead which translates into a 3% lead.
8:20 PM Eastern: 54% reporting McCain has 4400 vote lead which is 2%.
8:24 PM Eastern: 60% reporting, McCain 97,082 (47%) – Huckabee 92,407 (44.6%).
8:30 PM Eastern: 63% reporting, McCain 106,010 (47.4%) – Huckabee 98,586 (44%). McCain’s vote lead is now 7,500. Fox calls it for McCain – winning very well and the margin will be wider than now. Seems the exit polls were off.
8:37 PM Eastern: 70% in on the Dem side and Obama has a 64-35 whooping of Hillary. Not sure she can hold on with this kind of beating.
8:46 PM Eastern: In case you did not hear MD has delayed closing their polls until 9:30 PM so we will not get results for that state until then.
8:50 PM Eastern: For some reason VA has stopped updating the GOP summary page so I am going to go to the ABCNews page which shows McCain with a 9,000 vote lead and 3% lead. I still think this will grow to 4%, maybe 5% by the end of the night.
8:59 PM Eastern: McCain’s lead grows to over 10,000 votes with 65% in – translates to 4% lead (48-44).
9:07 PM Eastern: With 68% in McCain has 151,383 (48%) – Huckabee 133,762 (43%). Nice win.
9:10 PM Eastern: Well the VA finally updated and jumped ahead. McCain has 157,274 (49.5%) and Huckabee has 130,546 (41.1%). Wasn’t that close after all – 8% lead is pretty good actually.
9:22 PM Eastern: 85% reporting McCain has 167,098 (50%) – Huckabee 137,811 (41%). These are from VA itself and differ dramatically from what the media is showing.
9:30 PM Eastern: McCain beat Huckabee by a larger margin than Bush beat McCain in 2000 – historic perspective. Right now 87% in and McCain has a 50-41% win. McCain won MD handily, and Obama as well because Fox has called them both the second polls closed.
10:o0 PM Eastern: Wrapping it up here. McCain looks to be heading towards a 49/50-41 win (90% reporting) in VA and an even bigger one in MD. Sure he wins DC too. So both Obama and McCain rack up impressive wins – but Obama is heading to a party crack-up why McCain is heading to a clear nomination. I hope Huckabee stays around – he is really good for the party and McCain.
Aj, here is a link from the state of Virginia. McCain is ahead by 3 as I post this.
I read that 4 out of 10 Republicans in Va are born again Christians. So they vote for Huckabee, do Gingrich and Hannity and Limbaugh like him any better than McCain? No, he might be a conservative, but he is not the right kind of conservative.
The ice storm is bad. Raining 22 degrees F. Yes Rain. MD Precincts will stay open to 9:30PM.
Dude,we had a storm here in Louisville yesterday that shut the roads down in an hour.Only three inches total for the evening,but with snow,sleet, and ice it was hell.
I’ll take McCain over Huckabee.
I noticed that too about Fox, they only have about 40% of the precincts reporting, they are behind or something.
We had the same weather here in Indiana, I am not real far from Louisville. Nasty weather.
Nasty weather,but fun once you’re home.
Yeah, but sooner or later we have to go back to work. It is nasty here now.
CNN and Fox are calling it aren’t they?
American Idol’s on! Who needs politics.
The Strata- Sphere and American Idol.That’s all I need…..and this lamp.
and the remote control for the TV…
Huckabee’s Boomlet Is Over, Can Conservatives Lose Gracefully?
Posted by AJStrata on February 11th, 2008
Want to know who will win the VA, MD and DC GOP primaries handily? It won’t be Huckabee, it will be McCain. The polls show McCain romping in these states who will vote tomorrow see (RCP polls for VA and MD). So when Huckabee is blown out of the South in VA will the delusional fantasies of a Huckabee Boom to stop McCain finally end the conservative revolt?
That was yesterday by AJ? Is McCain winning handily? Is McCain romping in Virginia? Is Huckabee blown out?
Today we have as AJ hopes- only a 5% split? Enough votes for those not in the running anymore to change that lead for either McCain or Huckabee… As Fox News said…It’s an ugly win. And still no proof of your clear ” rejection of the true conservatives.”
But then I have to wonder if you were trained as a journalist because you’ve been spinning like a pro!
Whippet1,
Yes, McCain is winning handily – and by almost 10%.
Oh Whippet1! Mr Journalist! Where are you son?!
AJ,
Oh you sexist! Whippet’s aren’t always male…
not sexist – male. LOL! Which is probably bad enough…
AJ,
You’re forgiven!
Texas allows you to pick your party on the day of the primary – I think I shall go vote for Hillary, she needs a little boost after today and I feel sorry for her. (heh)
With no real reason to vote in the GOP primary (no local contested races that interest me) there’s no reason a whole lot of gop voters won’t do exactly what I’m thinking of.
Just to be clear – party affiliation has got next to nothing to do with whose primary you can vote in. You have to bring your registration card, but there’s no party affiliation on it until you show up at the booth and tell them which one to stamp it with. Then that’s only good until the next registration shows up in the mail – they come out every 2 years or whenever you request a new one.
So I think I shall be a primary dem, and tell all my pals here to do the same!
McCain wins MD too.
WWS:
My IN registration card does not have party affiliation either.
From THE CORNER at Nationa Review Online
“Tuesday, February 12, 2008
McCain and Huck, By Region [Byron York]
Geographically, 24 percent of Republican voters were in Northern Virginia; McCain won there, 52 to 35. The Richmond/Eastern Virginia area, 40 percent of the electorate, went for McCain, 48 to 41. But Southeastern Virginia, where 18 percent of the primary electorate lives and where a big Navy and military presence led some to believe that McCain would win there, went for Huckabee, 50 to 44. And as everyone expected, Huckabee’s big strength was in Western Virginia, which has 18 percent of the electorate; he won there, 67 to 25.”
Hmm, I know AJ would know if this is accurate…Was the military presence in SE Virginia? Quite interesting, if true.
I’m not a Huckabee supporter, but I’ve come to appreciate how much support Huckabee has from evangelicals. They see him as “one of them”, and the first “one of them” to ever run for Pres. I don’t think they could care less how conservative or not McCain is – that’s not why they vote. The media is missing the most important part of Huckabee’s candidacy, and that is the rising importance of the Evangelical vote in the deep south – all the places where Huckabee has done so well. I would lay odds (even though I don’t know Virginia well) that the areas Huck did well in where the areas where there is a high evangelical population. Now the problem with this is that when you go to areas without an evangelical base – such as California and the northeast – Huck has no base and thus has no votes. But in his regions, Huck truly does have a loyal base that the national media (including Fox) refuses to acknowledge.