Feb 20 2008
The Clintons Are Not Finished
I am not expecting Hillary to win any more. Laura Ingraham had a note from the TX voting which started yesterday and it showed a record 10 fold increase in turn out on the first day of early voting. Instead of the 1200 voters who showed up in 2006 12,000 showed up for long lines. America is engaged and Obama’s empty-suited rhetoric at the moment is the big draw.
But the Clintons are not done yet, not by a long shot. This is Hillary’s one and only shot at this (and I suspect more than a few women are getting a little upset that the first women presidential candidate is going to bite the dust). In fact, the Clintons have a good rationale to now go for broke – Obama needs seasoning before he its the big show down in the general.
And the Clinton political machine seems to be just gearing up now:
Allies of Hillary Clinton plan an expensive, stealth campaign to buttress her standing in the must-win states of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.
They’re canvassing Clinton donors for pledges of up to $100,000 in the hope of raising at least $10M by the end of next week. The money will be placed in the account of a political committee organized under section 527 of the tax code.
…
Two Democrats said that the 527 plans to run television ads and send pro-Clinton literature in all three states. One of the Democrats said that the ads will also include contrast messages against Obama.
I am not saying the mudslinging to come will work, but it will damage Obama. The fight for power is on, and no one fights like the Clintons. In my mind they have been quite reserved up until now. Don’t count them out yet.
Update: Well, that didn’t take long. A union flack went after Obama in damn good fashion:
Taking off the gloves, he said, “Barack Obama is no Muhammad Ali. He took a walk every time there was a tough vote in the Illinois State Senate. He took a walk more than a 130 times. That’s what a shadow boxer does. All the right moves. All the right combinations. All the right footwork. But he never steps into the ring.â€
And that is not all, now the Clinton machine is going after delegates:
This morning brings the news that the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, has launched a new website where they are announcing how they are officially preparing to make the case that the rules of the Democratic nomination process should be changed.
Among many “facts” they declare are some accurate ones, such as the idea that superdelegates, which in true nomenclatural dexterity they now term ‘automatic delegates’ “are expected to exercise their best judgment in the interests of the nation and the Democratic Party.”
The battle is just beginning – as is the blood letting.
Put a fork in Hillary – she’s done.
Obama will win Texas, and Ohio and Pennsylvania will be so close that if Obama doesn’t win, he will do no worse than 55%-45%. The numbers and time have run out on Hillary.
The most important numbers in these primaries have been total votes, with Democrats continuously pulling half again as many total votes as Republicans. A longtime Reaganite acquaintance of mine believes Obama may win 44 states in the General Election, when the Crazy Old Cootâ„¢ takes the whupping of his life, with Drug-Addled Barbi by his side.
I wouldn’t count on it Soothy!
Last night in Wisconsin, HILLARY got more votes than McCain and Huckabee combined (Hillary 452,000/McHuck 375,000) . Obama got far more than that (645,000). Ditto in Virginia (1,000,000 Dems/500,000 Reps) and Maryland (750,000 Dems/280,000 Reps) with Democrats getting out at least half again as many voters as Republicans.
You run the numbers. Just where will the Cootâ„¢’s votes be coming from?
I disagree on both counts.
The Wicked Witch of Westchester is going to uncork the entire Dem Dirty Tricks playbook. She’ll do everything short of putting a contract on Obama’s life…and the only thing stopping her from doing that is covering her tracks. After all, she has absolutely nothing to lose.
As for McCain, the Dirty Little Secret is that he is onto Something Big with the “Patriotism, not Profits” line. One thing that Reagan did, and that his successors never really grasped, was to promote American pride and strength. He talked about tax cuts…but also spoke about national security and national pride.
It’s the kind of rhetoric that plays well in blue-collar America. And with Clinton and Obama trying to out-radical each other, McCain is in a superb position to reassemble the Reagan coalition. He’s working hard to rally the base, with some effect. Above all, he’s in a position to contrast his own center-right (if unorthodox) positions to the radical leftism of the Democrat nominee.
On top of that, the media has fawned over him…so much so that it will be much harder to them to turn on him (which they WILL do) with any credibility.
My forecast? I’d rate Obama as having a slight edge for the Dem nomination…and the honor of losing to McCain by about 5 points.
I’ll add that while the primary turnout numbers are a bit discouraging, it should be remembered that the Republican primaries are effectively over. And the field never featured anyone who commanded fanatic support…there was no Reagan in the field with supporters ready to walk through hellfire for him.
The Dems, on the other hand, have a real dogfight going on.
Which means that they would naturally have more of a turnout in the primaries.
Lose to John Sidney McCain III, the senescent senior senator by 5%? I think not. Obama will mop the floor with the Crazy Old Cootâ„¢.
Care to make a small wager? Say, dinner at Arthur Bryant’s??
Soothy . . . Obama will be “so February” among his most fanatical current supporters.
His schtick is visibly starting to wear out its welcome, even among the faithful. His victory speech went about 15 minutes too long, and the faithful were visibly bored.
He has one problem: there’s only so long one can utter meaningless platitudes about “change.” At some point, he’s going to have to offer concrete proposals.
And that will be his downfall. Because what little he has offered has managed to turn off one of my co-workers.
Obama thinks that $75,000 gross income is “rich,” and that taxes need to go up–and not by a small amount–on “the rich.”
My co-worker makes about $90,000. Out here in San Diego, that means you’re just barely getting ahead of your debt, unless both spouses work (and then the second income mostly pays for taxes and child care–what a bargain, get maybe another $10K net in return for both spouses being under enormous stress and the kids being raised by strangers). My co-worker is the sole breadwinner, he drives a 12-year-old car, he and his family in what passes for a “cheap” house (he only paid $257,000 back in 2001), they take a cheap vacation once a year, and they’re just managing to scrimp and save for retirement.
Anything but the most trivial tax increase would just about render him and his family insolvent.
But he’s “rich,” so he’s not paying his “fair share,” if you listen to Obama.
Bankrupting American families. Yeah, there’s “change” America can get behind.
Again – I suggest you look at the latest numbers:
Georgie now enjoys 19% approval of his job as President, breaking Harry Truman’s lowest rating by 4 points, and setting the all-time stink ’em out. And get this – his economic approval rating is 14%.
And all McCain offers is Bush Lite and a drug-addict wife who stole narcotics and forged prescriptions from a nonprofit organization. I can guarantee a phrase you will hear an awful lot of is “McCain/Bush policies”. Over and over from now to November.
The real secret is that George W. Bush has run this country so well that when the rubber hits the road if the Dems are in power they will take credit for it all.
National Defence……we are not leaving Iraq.
Taxes……..any one who uses an economist will soon learn that raising taxes will put this country into a Jimmy Carter recession. The rich already pay 90% of all taxes.
Economy…….we are at full employment. States with Dem governors, high taxes are the worst off, highest crime, business moving. LOWER CORP. TAXES, is the only way to save jobs.
Balanced Budget……Cut pork and get rid of programs that are redundant, cut spending. Dems never had!
Just for starters! I’m sure others can add more.
Just remember that soothy was hillary’s biggest fan and was going on and on about her “inevitability” just a few short months ago. Now Hillary’s going down, and he’s jumping ship pretending that he saw this coming all along – just wait for Hillary to come back, he’ll jump ship again. (or most likely simply vanish when his ideas go plop – when’s the last time anyone heard him crowing about the wonderful Valerie Plame lawsuit that was going to reveal all?
I must admit that the idea of soothy shrieking like a little girl at an Obama rally, or wetting himself like Chris Matthews at the mere sound of Obama’s voice is highly entertaining. Has Obama saved your soul yet, Soothy? Has he made you proud of your country for the very first time in your life, or are you still waiting?
Soothy,
The Dem primary is about as irrelevant as the lottery, and has the same constituency.
If you can find any posting – one single incident – in which I ever praised Hillary Clinton, please do so … otherwise you’re just plum lying . .. the default condition for Republicans.
And Macker – the mere fact that 66% more Democrats are voting in state after state after state tells me one thing: John McCain is going to get his sagging ancient ass kicked in November (unless of course Barack Obama is conveniently assassinated ala RFK) … and you are going to stand around with egg all over your face.
Soothy don’t get over confident……many republicans are voting for Obama because it is one way to defeat the Clintons. Watch the blow out in Texas. It is so fun to watch the Clintons go down in flames!
Soothy don’t get over confident……many republicans are voting for Obama because it is one way to defeat the Clintons. Watch the blow out in Texas. It is so fun to watch the Clintons go down in flames!
soothsayer:
November is a long way off and remember this if Obama wins he will be expected to live up to his long winded speeches. I wonder how long it will take for the honeymoon to be over? Not long I think. The man is weird.
Obama also said he wants to let the IRS do people taxes for them. We just sign on the dotted line and send in the check.
He also plans to make the world a happy place of rainbows and unicorns and dancing butterflies and singing flowers and we can do it, yes we can. You are the hope, the hope is you.
Will Michelle be proud of her country if people don’t vote for her husband?
Oh yes, and peace now!!!!!!
sooth:
One thing you are overlooking: McCain does a better job of attracting Democrats than Obama {rhymes with Osama} does of attracting Republicans.
That stuff about a sagging ass is so tacky and so you.
Personally I just think Obama is feeding people a line of crap so that they will vote for him. Oldest trick in the book. Pacifism, populism, and empty promises.
The real secret to the appeal of people like Obama is also the press and the left which is always looking for a cult leader to mindlessly follow. For instance, Bush is in Africa and even Geldof made mention of the fact that Bush has done more to help the people of that continent than any president ever has…and yet Geldof noted, he gets no credit.
Well that is simple, the press is like soothie here. They are hateful little liberals who do not really care about the causes they yammer on about. It is all about the SHOW, the EVENT, the SPECTACLE, the SPEECH.
The fact that Bush might have saved hundreds of thousands of lives is just so {you know} boring. Not worth mentioning. It is better to make a speech about all the lives you will save than to actually do all the boring bothersome stuff it takes to save them.
Change, we want change, we are the change, the change is us!!!!
The numbers from the polling places make it clear that Obama is winning over far more independents and moderate Republicans than McCain is winning conservative Democrats.
But like I said – if anybody wants to bet …