Feb 25 2008

Obama Not Gaining Any Momentum

Published by at 12:12 pm under 2008 Elections,All General Discussions

Barack Obama seems to be out of gas. He initially took some momentum from Super Tuesday and a small bit from the Chesapeake primaries. But he is not getting the jolt in the polls I would have expected from 11 straight wins. In fact, if you look at the RCP national average he is in a statistical tie with Clinton nationally. For some reason RCP is keeping that bizarre Reuters-Zogby poll in with its ridiculousd +14 lead for Obama. Remove it from the mix and you get an Obama lead of 0.5% – dead even.

I have been keeping my eye on the Gallup daily tracking poll because it is a great indicator of the general mood and movement in the country. As folks can see it doesn’t show anything but a running dead heat.

The front-runner is always a tough position to be in, but McCain has been able to move from a problematic position with his base to a 3-1 lead (65-20) over Huckabee, the conservative base’s preferred choice. So it is not like Obama can’t gain some traction – he just hasn’t. We still have a week until the next big round of primaries in TX and OH and elsewhere. Obama needs to gain some separation before I will be convinced he can win these key states. Clinton has all the big states in her column – and I think the second look Obama is getting is not working out well for him. Time will tell.

9 responses so far

9 Responses to “Obama Not Gaining Any Momentum”

  1. lurker9876 says:

    With the leaks on the Weather Underground connections, the new photo, and more details on Obama’s background, think you may be right in the long run. Problem is that the polls of late have been wrong.

  2. Mike M. says:

    Huckabee preferred by conservatives? AJ, you’ve been at the vanilla extract again.

    And we definitely want the Democrats to head to a brokered convention…which will leave McCain facing an opponent with a broken base.

    I’m not sure if this is shaping up to be a replay of 1968 or 1972 – but both were disasters for the Democrats. And it could not happen to a more deserving bunch.

  3. Terrye says:

    I don’t think Huckabee is the conservative choice. I think Romney was. Huckabee is getting support from values voters, but I think they are more likely to end up voting for McCain than some of the Romney people are.

    As for Zogby, you would think after Super Tuesday and their polls saying Romney was 8 ahead in California that people would just ignore them.

    I think McCain will pick up support as time goes on, but right now Obama and his followers are feeling pretty damn cocky. In fact a lot of them are acting as if the election in November is a mere detail to be gotten out of the way so that their lord and master can take his rightful place as Ruler of the Planet.


  4. Soothsayer says:

    Obama out of gas?? In what parallel universe do you dwell??:

    A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows the Ohio primary to be at its narrowest margin yet from any pollster. Hillary Clinton still has the lead, but it’s a bare 50%-46% edge over Barack Obama.

    “Hillary Clinton is in big trouble,” said Dean Debnam, president of PPP, in the polling memo. “As recently as a week ago many polls in the state were showing her with around a 20 point lead. The race is trending heavily toward Obama and time is on his side with another eight day before the voting.”

    The air of inevitability that once surrounded Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton has shifted to challenger Barack Obama. In a new national USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, those surveyed predict by 73%-20% that Obama will be the Democratic nominee.
    Democratic voters hold that view by nearly 3-1.

    The Illinois senator has surged to a double-digit lead nationally over Clinton, walloping her 51%-39% among Democrat voters as their preference for the presidential nomination. The poll of 2,012 adults was taken Thursday through Sunday.


    The newest CNN poll from Texas shows a net shift of +6 for Obama over the last poll.

    Obama 50 (48)
    Clinton 46 (50)

    The numbers in parentheses are from 2/15-17

    Sorry to let facts get in the way of your “out of gas” meme. Obama’s rising numbers, coupled with the fact that Democrats generally have been recording 150% of Republicans in primary voting heralds a blow-out in November.

  5. WWS says:

    Sooth has drunk the Koolaid! How’s it feel to get religion, soothy? Has your soul been saved yet, or does he have to actually win before you can travel to the promised land?

    But I suppose even you are proud of this country for the very first time in your life!!!

  6. The Macker says:

    “the fact that Democrats generally have been recording 150% of Republicans in primary voting heralds a blow-out in November.” – You have latched on to that idea, so I offer this history of past turnouts for your consideration: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=FRC2008011701

  7. Terrye says:

    It saves time if you fly past soothie’s posts and don’t bother to read them Saves aggravation too. It seems that Obama might have started to stall, I saw this at Rasmussens:

    Thirty-four percent (34%) of all voters say they will definitely vote for John McCain if he is on the ballot this November. Thirty-three percent (33%) will definitely vote against him while 29% say their support hinges on who his opponent is.

    Barack Obama has the same number who will definitely vote for him–34%. But, more people are committed to voting against him than McCain. Forty-three percent (43%) say they will definitely reject him at the ballot box. For 18%, their support depends on his opponent.

    For Hillary Clinton, 32% will definitely vote for her if she is on the ballot and 46% will definitely vote against. Core opposition to Clinton, the best-known of the candidates as the long campaign season began, hovered in the high 40s through most of the past year.

    Throughout 2007, support for McCain was somewhat softer than now. As late as December, Rasmussen Reports showed only 22% definitely supporting him, 33% against, and 39% waiting to see the opposition. Between June and November, firm support for him had slipped below 20%.

    There was less uncertainty about Obama during 2007. In December, only 28% had a wait-and-see attitude. Obama’s support was then 29%, with 36% definitely opposed.

    Thus, while the base of strong support has risen for both men in recent weeks, it’s risen only slightly for Obama. On the other hand, core opposition to McCain, the least of any candidate’s, is the same as in December; whereas strong opposition to Obama has jumped seven percentage points.

  8. Terrye says:

    The thing that Obama overlooks is that a lot of the people voting in Democratic primaries are activists, if their guy or gal does not win they show a lack of enthusiasm by November. They have moved onto the next big thing.

    After all November is a long time off in terms of politics. Think of how much has changed in the last 9 months.

    People like soothie think that hating Bush and blaming for everything from natural disasters to poor lending practices to the world market price on oil to a stubbed toe will save them in the next election. Well you know what? The Democratic Congress has been in charge {two of them are running for the White House right now} and thus far they have been a disaster. I am not sure what effect those numbers will have on the race either.

  9. Terrye says:

    As a matter of fact Clinton has always done better against rank and file Democrats than Obama has. It is the hard core people who flock to Obama and kiss his ring. Or something.