Mar 03 2008
TX and OH Predictions
Looking at the RCP poll averages for TX and OH I think Hillary will pull out a win in OH and make TX so close (if not a win) that she lives to fight on for the remainder of the primaries and into the convention.
The TX polls are basically a tie, so even if Barack wins, the way delegates get apportioned he will not win decisively and will find himself unable to win via the normal delegates. Combined with a win in OH Clinton will be seen as coming back, not fading out. And the buyer’s remorse is building with Obama as they realize how he will get chewed alive by McCain and the GOP. Obama has not had to actually run a tough race yet, not once. And it shows in his gaffes.
Here and here are some great reads from the right and left, respectively, on how Obama is defenseless against McCain and the GOP on Iraq. Enjoy as we get ready for the next big showdown to nowhere, and feel free to share your views in the comment section.
My prediction, Obama takes Texas in popular vote and delegates, Hillary takes Ohio by small margin so lives for Pennsylvania.
One thing that will hurt McCain is the Boeing loss to Northrup.
Expect this to surface as a protest to Pentagon’s decision coming from some of the senators and representativs.
Good thing is that all 3 of the candidates still endorse NASA. They all support the same level of budgets with NASA.
Luker,
Are you sure you know their plans? Obama is for canceling human exploration and taking the savings out of NASA and putting into the Dept of Ed! He plans to gut NASA.
Obama the great uniter! He will bring together people of all walks and persuasions to a glorious new beginning. He will bring the change we have all been waiting for. Change we must have now.
So, how come he cannot win decisively in his own party?
Lurker – although I don’t like the Northrup/Eads contract win either, I don’t see how that hurts McCain unless he endorses that decision – as far as I know he has no involvement in it. Seems to me he could come out ahead by supporting a re-do. Hard to believe that Congress – any Congress – will let that deal stand.
Watching Texas up close, it’s hard to believe that Hillary has a chance. Obama is blanketing all media with ads, and I even had Obama supporters come door to door asking for my vote! Nobody else in any race has shown that level of organization in a primary – it’s amazing. And it’s kind of sad to say that you wouldn’t even know the Republicans were having a primary based on what kind of media coverage you see.
Of course, the real elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about is that in the dem primary, Obama v Hillary is basically black v hispanic, with white voters an afterthought. Which group is going to own the Texas dems in the future? That’s the real fight.
Interesting non-fact-based parallel reality you’re living in:
Gallup Dialy tracking has Obama 50% – CLinton 42% with gap widening.
RCP has Obama 78% to win in Texas, actually taking more delegates due to his strength in the caucus part of the process. Meanwhile, Clinton still leading in Ohio, but not be enough to stem his momentum.
As for McCain: give me a break. RCP shows Obama ahead of McCain 47.4 to 43.5 – and Obama hasn’t even campaigned in Florida yet. Obama will trounce the Crazy Old Cootâ„¢ in November. Can you imagine Obama (Harvard Law, head of the class, Harvard Law Review) versus McCain (5th from bottom of the class at Annapolis) and unable to remember if he’s a liberal or a conservative??? I’ll go out on a limb a bit and predict Obama will win Texas AND Kansas in November.
But – hey – you’re the same guys who tried to tell me that Scooter Libby wouldn’t be found guilty.
I was listening to a report on NPR this morning and they said the Democrats have a really strange way of counting delegates in Texas. A vote in Austin or Dallas might be worth two votes in ElPaso because the Democrat turn out was low there in the last couple of elections. So the lower the turnout the lower the delegate count. Hillary is stronger around places like ElPaso. That means she could win the popular vote and lose the delegate.
Honest to God the Democrats have such screwy rules, they are constantly outsmarting themselves.
As for the Boeing deal, what does that have to do with any of the candidates? If the government wants to make it a rule that only American companies can get these contracts, then they should stop other people from making bids in the first place.
And you’re the idiot who claimed that Valerie Plame’s lawsuit would lead to both Bush and Cheney being impeached – remember that?
But hey, it is kind of heart warming to see you’ve finally had a real religious experience! Obama has Saved your Soul, how can you not fall in love with him??? Tell us true is there anything – anything at all? that you wouldn’t do for him??? He has only to command!!!
Soothsayer:
You are the one who should be giving people a break. You are not psychic, you do not know who is going to win this thing anymore than the rest of us do.
I have seen McCain ahead in a couple of polls here lately and his negatives are lower than either of the Democrats. That vote is months and months away, there is no way of knowing who will win. But I think that in the end the sheer silliness of the Obama campaign will bury him.
We are the change we have been looking for!!! gimme a break. That is so silly.
all the world needs now
is love sweet love
no not just for some
but for every one of us
and no icky wars or bad bombs or eavesdropping or Halliburton or global warming or sickness or hunger or poverty…vote Obama and it will be heaven on earth.
lord we don’t need another mountain
there are mountains and hillsides enough to climb
gag me. really. people are going to wake up from this drunk one day and wonder just what the hell happened to them.
If you look at real clear politics you will see that the average is Obama+3.9 and since he is the big deal right now that is not surprising. However, two of the last four polls have actually had McCain ahead and the two that have had Obama ahead have him way out there. That makes the polls useless to both camps. The difference is something like 14 points between two polls done on the same day.
In fact according to RCP late polls in Texas and Ohio are breaking for Hillary. It is going to be a nail biter.
Good question, AJStrata. I was reading today’s Houston Chronicle and it says that Obama and Clinton have very similar positions regarding NASA. Maybe Obama’s lying to us like he is to the Ohioans regarding NAFTA?
Speaking of Fitzgerald, I saw this over atmy vast right wing conspiracy:
I wonder how fawning the adulation for Patrick Fitzgerald will be when Tony Rezko goes to the big house, with his filthy fingerprints all over Obama’s career.
Obama bought a mock Georgian mansion on Chicago’s south side on June 15, 2005, the same day Rezko’s wife bought a plot next door from the same seller. Obama then purchased from Rezko another parcel at above-market value. Federal prosecutors recently revealed that Nadhmi Auchi, an Iraqi billionaire who lives in London, wired $3.5 million to the financially strapped Rezko in Chicago less than a month before the Obama-Rezko purchases. James Bone, investigative reporter for the Times of London, wrote last Tuesday that “the money transfer raises the question of whether funds†from Auchi “helped†Obama buy his house.
You’ve got to love this little sleeper – Saddam Hussein’s name crops up alongside Auchi’s, which surely will generate lots of one-liner material for John McCain, and might even derail Obamessiah’s candidacy (I’m not banking on it, the MSM are not going to let one drop of slime land on their boy).
But the case against Rezko prepared by the always determined U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald poses possible new pitfalls for the Democratic front-runner by introducing into the proceedings Auchi, who has been convicted on corruption charges in France and given a suspended sentence. While his friends describe Auchi and his family as victims of Saddam Hussein’s tyranny, Pentagon sources call him a “bagman†who laundered money in London for the Iraqi dictator.
Sooth,
Do you remember where Eisenhower was ranked in his class?
You seem to prefer reptilian candidates to “old coots.” Each to their own .
Sooth won’t answer, he’s too busy chanting “O-bama, O-bama, O-bama, Ooo! “O-bama, O-bama, O-bama, Ooo! ”
I think you have to do that 5 times a day while kneeling and pressing your forehead to the floor. While facing Chicago.
Macker – I’d say there’s a gigantic difference between Eisenhower’s 61 out of 164 – which puts him in the top 38% of the graduating class, and McCain’s abominably stupid bottom .6% of the graduating class: 894 out of 899.
It probably explains why McCain crashed three planes before seeing any combat whatsoever. He was too stupid to land, to avoid power lines, or to avoid joyriding to the Army-Navy game.
The event in question was a speech that Barack Obama made in New Hampshire last Tuesday laying out his $18 billion education plan. Actually, the speech drew fairly widespread coverage – No Child Left Behind, and all. Only The Washington Post’s Marc Kaufman, however, expanded upon a little-noticed item at the end of Obama’s plan. In a note on fiscal responsibility, the senator says he would delay NASA’s controversial moon-to-Mars program five years in order to fund education initiatives. Kaufman took this inconspicuous item and, quite astutely, wove it into a larger article about candidates’ positions (mostly a lack thereof) on a crucial element in the future of American space exploration.
http://www.cjr.org/campaign_desk/obamas_nasa_plan_gets_little_p.php
From a Clinton press release
Hillary Clinton’s Statement in Support of U.S. Aerospace and Aviation
Our aerospace and aviation workforce is the best in the world, powered by hundreds of thousands of workers across the country, including more than 60,000 in Ohio and 180,000 in Texas. American aerospace is a flagship industry – producing an annual positive trade balance of close to $60 billion.
In recent years, American aerospace and aviation has been facing new challenges, including mounting competition from foreign competitors like Brazil, Canada, and Europe and growing consumer concerns. Instead of supporting our industries, the Bush administration has slashed funding for NASA’s aeronautical research and development, underfunded FAA’s air traffic control modernization, and failed to adequately enforce our trade agreements to create a level playing field for our domestic industries.
Hillary Clinton has a plan to ensure that America remains the global leader in aerospace and aviation. As President, she will:
Provide new incentives for and investments in aerospace research and development. Hillary will double NASA’s and FAA’s aeronautics R&D budgets as part of her plan to reverse the Bush administration’s war on science. She will pursue a balanced strategy of robust human spaceflight, expanded robotic spaceflight, and enhanced space and Earth science activities. She will speed development, testing, and deployment of next-generation launch and crew exploration vehicles to replace the aging Space Shuttle program. At the same time, Hillary’s innovation agenda calls for stimulating in-house research and commercial development by making the R&D tax credit permanent. She will also double federal investment in basic research, which is critical for ensuring that America is at the forefront of new ideas.
Expand the nation’s pool of skilled scientists, engineers, and technicians. To meet the aerospace industry’s need for scientists, engineers and technicians, Hillary has called for tripling the number of NSF fellowships and other incentives for bringing more people, particularly women and minorities, into the fields of mathematics, science and engineering. Hillary will reward teachers that enter math and science disciplines and strengthen our K-12 education system to ensure we are producing the best future scientists and engineers in the world.