Update: As I mentioned before you cannot take reporting or statements from the lawless regions of Pakistan at face value. But with that said it is interesting to learn about the young, newly elected Member of Parliament who represents one of the probable havens for al-Qaeda. Meet Kamran Kahn, he has interesting views on what is happening right now in Pakistan:

According to Khan, only one percent of the local population supports the militants. [“]The local people are fed up with the violence, the beheadings, and the daily fear. They want to live in peace[“], he said. [“]They want to see an improvement in their lives[“].

But the reality is much more complex. The Northwest Frontier and the tribal areas are polarized. On one side are the new young leaders like Khan, who want to bring an end to the violence, and on the other are the hard line militants who want to establish an orthodox Islamic state inside Pakistan.

…

In Pakistan’s Feb. 18 parliamentary elections, Khan ran as a secular candidate on an independent ticket – and won.

He defeated his opponent – a hard-line religious cleric – in a region where the Islamic militants hold sway, by calling for change. And even more surprising, the Taliban supported Khan.

I have no idea of the man’s sincerity, but he won his position in the parliament based on these positions so I would give him the benefit of the doubt. Sadly, we will know for sure if assassination attempts soon follow. But clearly al-Qaeda and terror are losing the young generation of new leaders in Pakistan, just as they did in Iraq. The fact is more and more Muslims see al-Qaeda as their enemy, not their divine future. – end update

Just as the news media has never grasped we are winning in Iraq, and the dividends we are reaping out of those victories are turning Islam against al-Qaeda and their ilk, the media is not willing or able to grasp the fact that terror is backfiring in Pakistan as well. But it is:

The Taliban in Pakistan have lost a lot of grassroots support over the last year. The accumulated Taliban defeats have eroded popular support. This could be seen in the recent elections, where 90 percent of the radical candidates that got elected five years ago, lost. Recruiting is more difficult, and more tribes are turning on the Islamic radicals. This has given the more radical Taliban more power, and made al Qaeda tactics more popular. That means more suicide bombings. But that also means more terrorists are getting arrested, Pakistan has rounded up 442 in the past three months, most in the Pushtun (northwest) and Baluchi (southwest) tribal areas.

al-Qaeda is so addicted to inflicting carnage as their way of proving their superiority that they are blind to how it really signals their undoing. Just like in Iraq where the massacring of Muslims by the hundreds led the Iraqis to rise up against al-Qaeda, to take up arms and hunt the Bin Laden’s butchers down. The senseless violence dissolves any ‘tolerance’ or support and simply creates determined enemies. al-Qaeda has never once realized their cocky arrogance is their undoing. In seeing everyone as sheep they miss the fact most people act peacefully out of preference for peace, not an inability to protect themselves or inflict harm on others. People are not sheep. They are quiet lions and tigers who will kill if forced to.

One thing you have to do when looking at this region of the world is take the news from this part of the world with a grain of salt – it can be laced with lies, diversions and wild imagination. But underlying this sometimes fictional regional reporting is some kernel of reality. For example, this article is very interesting once you get past it’s imagined conspiracy between Pak forces and Militants to stage a fake war (who thinks these things up – Hollywood?). It tells of a building battle to come:

The plan centered on developing an understanding with the Pakistani Taliban in the tribal areas that at the onset of a planned military offensive there, both sides would attempt to keep losses to the minimum; that is, they would go through the motions while Pakistan fulfilled its obligations in the eyes of the world in cracking down on militancy.

Initially, the project went well. But, coinciding with the visit this week to Pakistan – the second in a month – of the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, and a series of suicide attacks, the situation has changed.

Mullen was due to meet with President Pervez Musharraf and military leaders to discuss US assistance for a massive military operation in Pakistan, under US supervision, against the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

Emphasis mine. I think the last sentence is the kernel of reality. I had mentally noted Mullen’s trip knowing full well it was meant as a military planning get together. Yes, there were attempts at peaceful negotiations with locals to have them purge their areas of al-Qaeda and other violent militants. And it seemed maybe it was going to work – until the militants killed the tribal leaders who were meeting and had just agreed to evict the terrorists. So it is clear to me there will be no reconciliation – too much blood has been spilt. But there are more intriguing nuggets in the piece:

According to Asia Times Online contacts, a military operation is imminent, starting from a base camp in Peshawar in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The main focus will be Mohmand and Bajaur agencies, and some other tribal areas, to pre-empt the Taliban’s spring offensive in Afghanistan.

Under the initial plan, the operation would have been largely symbolic and the militants had been convinced that if they remained at the forefront and fought against Pakistani troops, their positions would be exposed to the foreign supervisors and they would sustain huge losses.

Instead, if they struck ceasefire deals and retreated from forward positions to the border regions, they would be helped with advance information about possible raids and they could take alternative measures for their survival. They were categorically told that the operation was inevitable, so it would be best for them to take rear positions and flit on both sides of the border for their survival.

OK, to summarize and strip out the hype: the Americans are coming in you will be destroyed if you try to fight back. I would suspect there are options that, if the tribes prefer to avoid being caught up in the fighting, routes for exiting the battle peacefully will be set up. But there will be a major push to destroy the gathering remnants of al-Qaeda and its allies this spring. Which is the best news in the whole piece. And it already has started:

The first glimpse the iron fist came last week when Kiani ordered more than 1,000 raids in several cities and hundreds of suspected militants were arrested. This was the biggest operation in the past 12 months and followed the assassination of the surgeon-general of the Pakistani army.

I am not sure if any of the article is based on reality, or is the true reality. But I do know we have been beefing up our special forces in the country over the last few months, and now we learn the UK is doing the same thing:

The Ministry of Defence has dispatched a team of instructors to Pakistan to help with counter-insurgency training, it has emerged.
The United States is also planning to deploy up to 100 military trainers of its own to the country.

Britain and the United States are quietly stepping up their military co-operation with Pakistan.

It is designed to try to counter the spread of Al-Qaeda and the Taleban’s influence close to the Afghan border.

The chess board is being set and some initial moves are happening. It will not be long before we see if al-Qaeda’s gathering forces in the area was nothing more than the circling of their wagons for the last big battle between the West and Islamo Fascism, or something else.