Apr 02 2008
Violence Still Down In Iraq
Trends and averages. Very important concepts in understanding reality and the world. For example, you could have 3,000 souls lost on one day in September to terrorists and claim we are losing 3,000 lives a day in the war on terror, or you can average that number of the year to discover the rate of loss was only 8.2 deaths per day. While the first 3,000 a day lost is valid over the properly selected day, it is meaningless. It is an ignorance of math and its power to understand to go down the path of taking one data point and wildly extrapolating.
Which is why trends and averages are all important to understanding or measuring something. So let’s look at the commonly used indicator for violence in Iraq: the monthly death tolls (provided as usual by Gateway Pundit in easy to grasp graphical form). First the US casualties:
We have 12 months of data so let’s break it into six month periods and get the average for each phase of the conflict. The first phase is when al-Qaeda was at its peak and basically running amok killing fast and furious. It is also when the Anbar Awakening had taken hold and the Sunnis were beginning to help purge Iraq of the al-Qaeda pestilence. For this period the average monthly toll for the US was 93 per month. A tragic number but nothing compared to the carnage this country has faced in prior wars.
For the last 6 months, as The Awakening and The Surge crushed al-Qaeda and drove it from Baghdad and surrounding areas, the death toll has been 34 deaths per month. And this was during a period when al-Qaeda promised to break our resolve and went on another, albeit much smaller, killing spree. The good news for us is they were not able to be any more effective in March than they were in Oct or Sept of last year.
Where al-Qaeda and Sadr’s militia were able to do damage was in the killing of their fellow muslims:
Again, using math properly we see the first 6 months show a death rate of 1,376.5 Iraqis per month (note I am not including the numbers for Jan, Feb, Mar 07 – which would raise the average much higher). Conversely, the last 6 months has a rate of 563 per month. Granted, last month was very bloody and the highest toll in 7 months. But it is completely irresponsible to assume it is a trend towards a new increase in violence. It could be a last gasp before the calm, we don’t know. Additionally, around 400 of those deaths came in the last few days in the fighting between Iraqi forces and Sadr’s militia – with the militia taking a pounding. That is not ‘our’ war in Iraq.
I know there will many on the left showing off their abysmal education and comprehension of mathematics and making all sorts of wild-eyed claims. That is what they do – it is their role in life – to remind the rest of us to be thankful we payed attention to math in school. But that is their problem. Our country’s best interest is in seeing this through to success, and that means at least through October when the Iraqi elections are scheduled.
And don’t be fooled or lied into beleiving that this will be a cake walk to the elections. As one general recently back from Iraq noted there is going to be a lot of violent jostling in Iraq between Maliki and Sadr as the elections come closer:
Basra, and all those provinces down there, are all Shia. What you’ve got going on is infighting between Shia factions over who is going to be in control and the dominant faction in the south. The leading candidate for that is Muqtada al-Sadr. He and his militia have always been the dominant factor, but of course, they’re a militia, not a legitimate force.
Basra is under provincial Iraqi control. Basra is the only city in the country (in which) we did not have freedom of maneuver because we just never had much of a presence. What’s happened over time and what led to last week’s events is muscle-flexing and posturing. What you had in the Green Zone with the rockets was retaliatory. It was a challenge to the (Prime Minister Nouri al-) Maliki government because of the pressure they were applying in the south.
It’s been a test of will, a test of authority, a test of power over who has the authority and ability to control the south.
…
It’s complicated. There’s going to be jockeying and posturing before the elections, and that’s six months away. A lot of that stuff is going to be happening.
And Bin Laden’s thugs know it if bleeds it leads in the Western media, especially with their tunnel vision firmly focused on body-bags an nothing else (like some context). al-Qaeda literally will kill to get on TV and the front page, so I expect to see this level of violence for a while. If it does drop back down, it means al-Qaeda and the Mahdi Militias are being neutralized. War is never easy. Look how long it took Europe to mend after WW II (and in some places it is still fractured). We cannot let those in need of instant gratification to delude everyone that this is never ending. It will end and it can end positively if we see it through.
LOL. Strata’s track record extrapolated means if the violence of last month is a reversal of trends (and I could illustrate -again-why this is probably so, but why bother?) he will still advocate staying, on that basis.October elections is merely the lastest applied Friedman unit. Fine-tuned sophistry? Not even. Blunt-tuned sophistry.
Okay, I’ll bother. Conman can use the info.
http://arablinks.blogspot.com/2008/04/more-remarks-on-depopulation-of-green.html
It is amusing to see someone like Truth complain the number of Iraqi deaths is ticking up and that is a reason to leave. Does Truth believe that if we leave, the number of Iraqi deaths will go down?
Rick
It is amusing to see someone who needs to believe in a Big Government father-figure so much that after years of big daddy failing to bring security to Iraq, he still needs to believe big daddy can
do it.
And here’s the URL for the transcript of a Nir Rosen interview with Amy Goodman yesterday:
http://www.democracynow.org/2008/4/1/iraq_has_become_somaliaa_collection_of
A telling excerpt from yesterday’s interview:
NIR ROSEN: “It’s just mind-boggling. Five years after a war we call a war of liberation, which was, we were told, to liberate the Shias, we’re bombing Shias. We’re bombing Shia areas throughout Iraq, killing Shia civilians. I mean, clearly it’s been a complete catastrophe. And the US continues to kill Iraqi civilians. There’s this idea now that the Americans are just sort of beat cops patrolling Iraq’s streets, separating the two sides. That’s not true. Every day, they’re killing Iraqi civilians. They hold 24,000 Iraqi civilians in American prisons, at least 24,000. They haven’t been charged with any crime or found guilty of any crime. They can be held for years. They’re not handed over to the Iraqi authorities, which actually is a good thing, because they’d be treated much worse in an Iraqi prison. They detain juveniles. They raid houses and break down doors, drag the men out. It’s really still a very oppressive occupation. And a foreign occupation is a systematic imposition of violence on an entire nation. The occupation is not over.”
hardtotake,
you really fall for all the liberal crap don’t you? Life must suck, hating your country so much and being led around like the mindless puppet yo are.
Thanks for stopping by, and reminding everyone else how good we have it.
Cheers, AJStrata
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23922935/page/2/
General Odom : “Out Now”–unless you want a prolonged French-styled loss in Algeria.
McCafferty today: Iraq government “completely dysfunctional.”
Strata clucking away about “liberals” so he can feel real “right-wing,” I suppose, since he can’t on immigration.
Note to Truth:
Using big words doesn’t make you smart. Overusing them exposes the fact that you know you’re not.
Truth,
You are a hoot – and I am fairly sure I have banned you before. Stop trying to make what is going on in the world all about AJ Strata, I have no impact on the forces rolling across this planet right now. It is just a ridiculous obsession you have.
And, you don’t have any power to change it either! Anyeway, keep babbling, it is humorous to read each morning. By what you demonstrate as a loyal fighter for the opposition it will be a cake walk to the WH for McCain.
I see our friend Truth responded with a few ad hominems. But, he never did respond to the question whether it is his expectation that the Iraqi deaths will increase or go down if we depart prematurely. As I pointed out, it is quite unlikely his concern is over the Iraqis other than how it might support his point of view.
I suppose you don’t do implicit so I have to spell it out for you.
Experts disagree widely over how significant the losses will be when
American leaves. But one corolllary is true. The more independent the expert –the more detached from personal dependency on the military-industrial apparatus, other analytical skills being equal, the more likely he or she maintains the occupation is only delaying the inevitable and creating the potential for larger losses once America leaves.
As for example when America subsidized the “Sunni Awakening,”which Shias maintain increases the long-term chaos potential for Iraq–about which you care less.
Nice to see you… implicitly… conceded the Generals aren’t
liberals, AJ.