Bumped To The Top РImportant Update: A new study is out demonstrating the naivet̩ of the IPCC and the man-made global warming fanatics. The study shows how the effort to control C02 emissions is much harder, and crippling, than anyone imagined:

The United Nations Climate Conference in Bali in 2007 set the world on a two-year path to negotiate a successor to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Yet not even the most rosy-eyed delegate could fail to recognize that stabilizing atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations is an enormous undertaking.

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Here we show that two-thirds or more of all the energy efficiency improvements and decarbonization of energy supply required to stabilize greenhouse gases is already built into the IPCC reference scenarios. This is because the scenarios assume a certain amount of spontaneous technological change and related decarbonization. Thus, the IPCC implicitly assumes that the bulk of the challenge of reducing future emissions will occur in the absence of climate policies. We believe that these assumptions are optimistic at best and unachievable at worst, potentially seriously underestimating the scale of the technological challenge associated with stabilizing greenhouse-gas concentrations.

I have argued two things about the man-made global warming charade. First, it is not proven man is the driving force, and second that to limit CO2 emissions to offset the natural forces driving the warming would require efforts that are just impossible to achieve. This report supports my second point quite clearly. Before we waste billions of dollars and reducing the quality of living for everyone on the planet we need much higher quality science and information than we are being presented with now. – end update

It seems the dire predictions put out by the ‘scientists’ associated with man-made global warming regarding Earth’s pending doom by 2020 are not going to pan out. At least they have not been coming true for the last decade:

Global temperatures this year will be lower than in 2007 due to the cooling effect of the La Nina current in the Pacific, UN meteorologists have said.

The World Meteorological Organisation’s secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told the BBC it was likely that La Nina would continue into the summer.

This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory.

But experts have also forecast a record high temperature within five years.

As I noted in the first link above from a post I did last year, the predictions of the man-made global warming fanatics are on the record – and are not holding up to reality. This is what I said back then:

UP to 300,000 Australians on average may annually be exposed to the dengue virus by 2020, and between 600,000 and 1.4 million by 2050, according to climate change predictions finalised yesterday by global scientists.
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The number of heat-related deaths in capital cities likely to rise from 1115 a year at present to up to 2500 by 2020, and up to 6300 by 2050.

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Heat related deaths will rise by 106 deaths per year based on these predictions. So next year Australia should see around 1221 deaths next year, and 1327 deaths the next year and 1433 the next. We will know in 3 years if ANY of these predictions are accurate.

Well, year one is down and the predictions are not coming true. In fact, in 2001 the IPCC predicted “The TAR estimate for the climate sensitivity is 1.5 to 4.5 °C; and the average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 Celsius degrees over the period 1990 to 2100, and the sea level is projected to rise by 0.1 to 0.9 metres over the same period.”. For the models to be correct they projected a significant rise in temperature from 1998-2001. It did not happen. In fact, the prediction would require the temperature to be rising at twice the rate it did in the last century. For the 20th century the IPCC claimed “The global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C”.

So how can the crisis be doubling the increase in temperature if in fact the temperatures are flat or falling over the last decade? It can’t. It means the models are wrong and useless. It means the dire predictions were wrong and exaggerated. It means we were fed junk science as real science. It means the world is not an open book to those with PhDs and swelled egos.

What about the first predictions back in 1990M – how did those stack up to two decades of reality:

Based on current models, we predict: under [BAU] increase of global mean temperature during the [21st] century of about 0.3 °C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2 to 0.5 °C per decade); this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years; under other … scenarios which assume progressively increasing levels of controls, rates of increase in global mean temperature of about 0.2 °C [to] about 0.1 °C per decade.

Two decades later and again the predictions failed to produce accurate results. Here is the real data:

From 1990 to 2007 the rise in temperature was .2° C, or 0.1° C/decade. That is one 3rd the predicted rate claimed in 1990. To look at it another way, if the prediction had been right the temperature would have move from +0.3° in 1990 to +0.9° by 2010. Instead, over the last decade is has been zero rise, and possibly even a slight cooling. What we see is the failure of the “settled science” to even be close to reality. It is like predicting a rocket will go up and then it runs flat or dives into the ground. Not a good sign when dealing with matters this important and costs this high. The end of “global warming” is nigh because the end of the world is not coming.

Update: Reader Frogg has provided this interesting update:

George Bush appears to have beaten Al Gore again.

In very same week that Gore launched a $300 million public relations campaign to convince Americans that “together we can solve the climate crisis,” prominent climate alarmist Tom Wigley essentially endorsed President Bush’s approach to global warming, while criticizing that of Gore’s co-Nobelist, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In an article entitled “Dangerous Assumptions” published in Nature (April 3), Wigley writes that the technology challenge presented by the goal of stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations “has been seriously underestimated by the IPCC, diverting attention from policies that could directly stimulate technological innovation.”

Wigley, a lead author of the most recent IPCC report, describes that document as relying on “unrealistic” and “unachievable” CO2 emissions scenarios — even for the present decade.

Gore is such a fool even the scientist on his side can’t take him. The fact is we need clean air and water and we need to do what we can to not make the world unlivable. What that has to do with Global Climate change still has to be worked out by real scientists – not the UN and those looking for government subsidies. The Earth has been warming for many decades – ever since the little Ice Age four hundred years ago. It could be cooling again. When we know what the cause is (and it can only be marginally impacted by C02) then we will know how to respond – if we need to respond at all.

What we don’t need is hysterical neophytes like Gore running around claiming the end of the world is nigh.