Apr 22 2008
PA Results
8:25 PM: Everyone is racing to dump the exit polls. Jim Geraghty has the most interesting reporting on exit polls claiming Drudge got them backwards when he posted 52% Clinton 48% Obama. He also reports Obama winning blue color, Reagan democrats – which is opposite from what has been reported in the exit polls. Looks to me like we have another case of garbage polls. Should be an interesting night! Pass the popcorn.
Actual state results can be found here
8:37 PM: Fox is reporting the latest exit polls have Clinton up by 6%, noting Obama does best in the earlier poll numbers and fades through out the reporting. Finally results are coming in (less than 1%)!
8:45 PM: Wow, that was fast – Fox calls PA for Hillary! But now we need to see the margin, which will take some time.
8:52 PM: Key Exit poll numbers: Union Households (Reagan Dems) went with Hillary 57 to 43, same for voters without college degrees. Interesting to see if these are bitter voters with their guns and bibles.
8:55 PMFox is getting results faster than the state is posting them on it site. With 3% reporting in it is 53-47 Clinton. Some commentary hints this is the low end estimate of her win. Who has that popcorn?
9:00 PM Michael Barone has some initial votes mixed with exit polls in his analysis and is predicting about a ten point margin (55-45).
9:10 PM Fox had Major Garrett at Hillary PA HQ and they were watching another network which did not call the state for Hillary until about 20 minutes after Fox and others. They don’t call it the Clinton News Network for nothing I guess. With 7% of the precincts in it 54-46 Hillary. BTW, my predictions from earlier this morning can be found here.
9:38 PM Fox has 24% precincts reporting and it is 54-46. The numbers are bouncing between 6-8% lead. I would bet this is getting close to the range where the results will fall. Definitely when we get around 35-40% of the precincts reporting. There comes a point where the numbers won’t budge.
9:51 PM Michael Barone makes a stunning point – if Hillary continues to get around an 8+% lead she could take the overall popular vote from Obama (if you include MI and FL). The voters who voted in FL and MI cannot be ignored (especially after all the crap Gore pulled in 2000). If she walks away from today with the popular vote lead then watch Obama stumble. One will have the delegates, the other the votes. And the Superdelegates will have all the headaches.
BTW, Obama appears to only have taken the Philadelphia area by 60-40, which seems to me not to be enough to offset the rest of the state. And I note some boundary counties around the Philadelphia County not reporting at all – and I believe these represent Hillaryland.
10:05 PM I went and checked the RCP vote total page and Barone is right, Hillary will take the popular vote with FL and MI added in. With 50% of the precincts in (which is not the same as percentage of the votes) she has around a 90,000 vote lead. She should double that by the end of the night, easily taking the popular vote when all votes are counted. And she is on the way to wiping out the lead with just FL added in. Her lead is still 8%, but that is not going to be the news – she is going to have the most votes despite the rules of the DNC.
10:10 PM Fox is noting that what I noted, all of Obama’s areas are in and he did not get enough margin in the Philadelphia. Hillary is winning in Pittsburgh by ten points with 70% in and just racking up numbers elsewhere. Pat Caddell is predicting mid-low teens lead when all is said and done and is seeing the same pattern in the returns I noted earlier. This is a huge night for Hillary.
10:33 PM If you count all the votes (remember that phrase dems) Clinton now has the popular vote lead and has a chance to win the popular vote lead with only MI excluded. All those predictions that the massive influx of new voters would help Obama backfired. All those new voters helped Clinton pad her vote lead and take that key indication of voter support from Obama. All other formulas are based on party rules and processes – not the will of the people. She has a good argument.
Sorry to be off topic,but there’s a train wreck goin’ on on American Idol.The producers should be shot.Where’s the rock-n-roll?These people are young,they don’t wanna sing this stuff. No wonder ratings are down.Sorry people,had to get that off my chest.
Fox News and MSNBC called for Clinton. Does it mean that Clinton won big this time?
You mean all those republicans crossing the aisle were NOT all that enamored with the boy prince?
Shocking I tell you, shocking.
CHAOS!!
listen closely – that sound you hear is Obama gettin’ beat like a drum!
Struggler:
I know what you mean.
75:
I am not so sure that applies here, I think PA is a closed primary.
Terrye, then why has the media been preaching (falsely but pleadingly, of coure) the large republican turnout that Obama was benfiting from?
“of course” damned ergonomic typos again.
aarugh… >
Terrye,
Here’s an article that talks about the primary and switching parties. It is the AP though so you never know?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/primary_exit_poll_glance;_ylt=AlbYcQaki2bfsqS068DSefKs0NUE
I think that Hillary will be harder for McCain to beat.
you forget that if Hillary wins, the black vote boycotts the election.
It may be “closed” in theory but anyone can change their party affiliation and go in and vote. And since McCain is already the republican candidate, many changed their loyalty temporarily to vote for Hillary as part of Operation Chaos, so I would assume. We may not know for sure for awhile yet. Rush had a crossover on his show today who said they even asked him “why” he was switching parties and he said, “operation chaos”. 🙂
McCain might just be enough of a Democrat to beat either one.
😉
Incidentlly, anyone see this today? I have my doubts.
http://biglizards.net/blog/archives/2008/04/gee_he_really_i.html#comments
heh – the Times is pissed at Hillary!!!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinion/23wed1.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin
Another point – Obama outspent Hillary 2-1, but it doesn’t seem to have done much good.
Big spending by a campaign isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be. Sometimes it’s just pouring a lot of deluded people’s money down the drain.
Instapundit has posted the following from McClatchy papers:
Clinton’s win in Pa. leaves Obama battered, party reeling
It just seems like buzzards eating buzzards or something.
Obama out spent Hillary 2 to 1 but he was down 20 points at one point. So maybe it did help.
Obama outspent Hillary 2-1, but it doesn’t seem to have done much good.
This is going to be the lesson of 2008 .. there is a limit to what money can buy (or voters get tired of the same commercials coming on over and over again).
One could easily argue that the “Boss” was right with “57 Channels (And Nothin’ On)” as 57 channels of Obama is nothin’ on.
I just heard or read somewhere that only registered Democrats could vote in the primary. I am not sure at all, but considering how well Hillary does with older voters and union people I don’t think she needed any Republicans to help out her here.
BTW, I noticed that a lot of Republicans showed up and voted in the Republican race too. Not as many as Democrats ofcourse, but more than I expected to see.
Terrye, the “chaos” theory is that many republicans “registered” as Democrats and voted for Hillary. Only time will tell if that’s true but that’s the theory anyway. I don’t think there’s anything to keep Republicans from switching their registry from election to election…but I don’t know if this is true or not.
75:
That might very well be. Here in Indiana you just vote. No one registers as anything. But then again, if you switch your registration back and forth, how can call you yourself a Republican or a Democrat or an Independent.
I did hear that in Indiana they might challenge you if you try to vote Democrat and you have a history of voting Republican, but I really do not see how they can do that. A friend of mine is a lifelong Democrat and is running in the primary for Commissioner. I like the guy and he is honest and I was thinking of voting for him, to do that I would have to vote in the Democratic primary.
Now in the general, you just walk in, show your ID, sign the book and vote.