Well, I was going to predict it was going to be a good day for Hillary Clinton. I am sure she will do well in Indiana, but North Carolina was going to be the test of whether she had some momentum (or, conversely, if Obama was losing support). The problem we have in all this is the media distorts the reality and it has been overreacting in its usual mob-think mood-swings, so it is hard to see where the electorate is through the news media lens.

Then I see this news splashed across Drudge Report: “DANGER DAY: HILLARY FACES ’15-POINT DEFEAT’ IN NC; SEES INDIANA WIN“

Hillary Clinton’s inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina.

“Look, we worked hard and gave it our best shot, but the demographics, well, they are what they are,” a top campaign source explained to the DRUDGE REPORT as voting began Tuesday morning.

The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina.

So I was faced with a decision. Is this the Clinton campaign trying to tamp down expectations for real, or was this laying the ground for the miracle come back. Hard decision to be honest. Polls in NC have been tightening to the point Obama was looking at a 5-7% lead in many cases. It all depended on turn out model mix, which was going to be historically high again (as it has been all year for the democrats). The wild card – Rev Wright. Did Wright hurt Obama more with Whites than he energized African Americans? Which side is going to react stronger?

There is a bit of anger in the African American community over all the Obama bashing, so they could either be energized or turned off as they see Hillary’s kitchen sinks start to damage Obama both in the primary and in the general. We all know Hillary cannot afford to let Obama in the WH in 2008 if she wants a crack at 2012. Conversely, did White Obama supporters get spooked by Rev Wrights spectacle and decide to switch to Clinton or stay home?

I am lousy at predicting but I will go with the long term polls and not PR being ‘leaked’ to the headlines of the Drudge Report. I think Hillary does well in NC bringing that state to a near tie – which is where the democrat primary has been all season. After today – there will still be no clear winner.