Well, it seems Clinton did not pull off the big win she needed, while Obama did in NC. But if you step back from the media hype we still have the same basic tie that has been in place for weeks. The Democrat party voters are split and not budging one way or the other, and there are arguments on both sides. While Obama has the delegate math he is losing support of the white voter - which makes his general election run problematic. He is getting ~90% of the African American vote, which is why he is leading Clinton. But Dems always get ~90% of the vote in the general, and it is not enough to win the presidency.
The big question is what does Hillary do? I have been saving some articles from last week to see how things played out in IN and NC, and now is a good time to dust them off and look at them. One option Hillary has is to convince the party Obama is doomed in the fall and use the rules committees for the convention to seat the MI and FL delegates and pull the hat out of the rabbit:
With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party’s 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton, her backers could — when the committee meets at the end of this month — try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give an estimate.
Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of two pro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obama forces.
David Broder actually said it best last week when he asked: can Clinton win without crippling the party?
Does the Clinton camp still see any realistic way she can deny Barack Obama the Democratic nomination without blowing up the party?
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To have a chance, the Clinton folks figure, she must win Indiana on Tuesday and do well enough to keep Obama’s lead by the end of the primaries closer to 100 than to 200. She must also find a way to get some votes counted from Michigan and Florida, whose delegations are barred from the convention for violating the party’s primary timetable.
Then the superdelegates would have their moment. The first thing my Clinton friend noted about them is that, over the past two months, their conversations have shifted from a fascination with the rush of young people onto the voting rolls, benefiting Obama, to a focus on older voters and Catholics, who have broken heavily for Clinton in Pennsylvania, Ohio and other states vital to Democratic chances of assembling an Electoral College majority.
Second, he said, the Jeremiah Wright affair and other recent incidents have reminded the uncommitted how little they really know about Obama — including his ability to deal with political crises, real or manufactured. Clinton has plenty of scars from past battles that weaken her compared to Obama, but the uncommitted have seen her demonstrate repeatedly that she has the will to survive and fight back.
Those two factors have begun to change some superdelegates’ minds about the candidate they want to see nominated. But, as my friend acknowledged, they have not yet overcome the deep discomfort many of them feel, as they contemplate taking the nomination away from Obama. They know that would break the hearts of his African-American supporters, who have been the most loyal of Democratic constituencies.
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The Clinton camp’s answer comes in two parts. First, they say that the institutional party — the unions, the environmental groups, the abortion-rights groups and others who are desperate for victory after losing twice to George Bush and who recognize the potential appeal of John McCain — would exert heavy pressure on the losing side not to sulk or erupt.
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In effect, my friend was saying that may well be beyond Clinton’s power to win the nomination without severely damaging the party. Only Obama can make her winning seem right.
Interestingly, the reverse question is never asked. Can Obama win without blowing up the party? Both sides are so entrenched that large segments from each camp are ready to go to McCain than to the opposing Democrat should their candidate lose. We shall see how badly Hillary wants this. Right now I see no reason for her to stop with 6 races left. She might as well go to the end and then assess her options. Either she succumbs (not likely) or she blows up the party somehow. Even if she is bribed by Obama to step aside I am not sure that would appease the supporters.
Update: Clinton is not giving up - as I suspected.
And Operation C.H.A.O.S. rolls on.
Left by browngreengold on May 7th, 2008