Jun 06 2008
Obama Not Doing Well In Polls – Yet
Drudge as the following alert up regarding the latest polls:
To be released by RASMUSSEN: National Poll Shows Bounce for Obama; Obama now leads McCain 48% to 43%…. Developing…
Wow – five whole points! Â Except the last poll from Rasmussen had Obam up 2 points. Â What kind of ‘bounce’ is 3 points? Â Most polls are showing a tie – which is really bad for democrat this far out from the election (they should be ten points ahead). Â The best poll out there for Obama is the very left leaning CBS News poll, with Obama up 6, but even that shows danger for Obama:
Twelve percent of Democrats say they will support McCain in the general election. That’s higher than the 8 percent of Democrats who defected to President Bush in 2004. Nearly a quarter of Clinton supporters say they will back McCain instead of Obama in the general election.Â
Actually, that is 50% higher than what Bush got, which is huge because that is coming out of Obama’s ‘base’. Â When presidential elections are won by 4-5 percent, losing 8% of your base is not good news. Â There is even more bad news for Obama in the CBS poll:
McCain leads Obama by 8 points among registered independent voters, considered a key voting block in November. The Arizona senator leads Obama 46 percent to 38 percent, with 11 percent of respondents undecided.
Losing the moderates by 8% and losing 8% of the democrats and yet CBS shows Obama plus 6 – yeah, right. I predict Obama will not get much of a bounce in the polls because of the long and tough primary. Â Clinton supporters were at one time up to 50% ready to bolt and support McCain. Â I just don’t see Obama getting a huge lift out of all this. Â In fact I think as time puts some distance from his ‘win’ he will lose ground. Â Of course my predictions are notoriously bad, as we learned in 2006.
First off the 6 point lead poll was heavy biased with dems.
Second it is fairly well accepted that poll firms tend to draw their samples from metropolitan areas.
Now Obama has as his base Blacks/Elitist-eggheads/College Kids.
Guess what they are all urban and right where the poll people are calling.
Hilliary was picking up the rural counties and the poll types underweight them.
That was part of the reason Obama was ahead on delegates. The Dem formula for delegate allocation put many more into congressional districts which had historic dem support and stripped them from districts that leaned or voted Rep.
That put the lion share of the delegates in a given state right in Obama’s pocket.
Look at the primary voter totals and Obama picked up more than his vote proportional total in many states simply because of this skewing of the delegates that the Dems rules committee stuck them with.
The trend is the problem. Five points in two days is bad news.
I cannot dispute anything you say here, it’s all logical what you say, AJ, but I have felt the same confidence the last two elections, and let’s face it, they shouldn’t have been close.
Here’s what I worry about:
If people vote THEIR ECONOMIC INTERESTS, which they do election after election, then we’re in deep trouble. If you add up the sheer numbers of people and households that DEPEND UPON GOVERNMENT for their livelihoods; Federal, state, and municipal government employees, social workers, retirees, recipients of transfer payments, those employed in the huge education sector, those who work for non-profits or companies dependent upon government contracts, and then add to this number those who work in the private sector but PAY LITTLE OR NO TAXES, then we are faced here with the makings of an Obama Presidency.
To compound this very real structural problem, the eight years of Republican rule has given us, by way of tax cuts that increased government revenues, a federal leviathan that is now one-third larger. The population in that time has not gone up that much, so what we again have is many more voters who depend upon the government for their well-being than the last Presidential election. And that is scary.
It is said that the rising tide of GDP growth “raises all boats”. The problem with this is that the aforementioned public sector dependents DO NOT PERCEIVE THEIR BOATS TO BE IN THE WATER. This is why we should no longer be amazed when polls show a perfectly good economic period to be held in low regard by respondents. It’s not that they’re dumb, it’s that a teacher’s salary, a retiree’s monthly check, or a government worker’s pay is perceived to be tied to politics, not economics. We can harp all day long about what good stewards of the economy we Republicans are, but we have been, and will continue to be ignored by those for whom prosperity through a growing economy is something that happens to others, but not them.
If you’ll think about it, how could so many have voted for Gore and Kerry, two of the worst candidates for President, in history; we won by a thumbnail. We should believe the polls this time; I know it seems impossible that this country could in the end elect someone who is clearly a socialist, but it can happen.
Hey Harold,
3 points in 3 days, not five. I am watching the Gallup site to see when Hillary’s voters jump to McCain (and swamp any good news bump Obama might get).
We’ll see if happens in the coming days.