Jun 17 2008
Independents Moving To McCain – A Group Obama Cannot Lose
Major Update: Â In the Year of The Democrat, Obama is not doing as well with Democrats as McCain is among Republicans:
There is a remarkable consistency across all these polls, one that helps us draw certain boundaries around the electorate. There will always be variation, either random or events-driven, but the rough plot lines of the next few months are clear:
(1)Â McCain runs better among Republicans than Obama does with Democrats. The difference is not that big — eight points in the CBS News survey, if I recall, and five points here — but it is noticeable. This is probably an after-effect of a contested primary; it may also have to do with racism, with unease about Obama’s resume, and with unease with the content of his message (butter versus bread.) There are more Democrats than Republicans, so Obama comes out about even, if a little bit ahead. Given the composition of the electorate, he should be doing a little bit better among Democratic women, among white Catholics in the Midwest and among national security-conscious swing voters.
Yeah, yeah, yeah – it’s all about Obama’s skin pigment and not about the fact he is the most far left candidate with the least experience ever run. Â The guy is a media-made puppet who hangs out with people who hate America so much they use to bomb it in their youth. Â The fact is Obama is losing the Reagan and Hillary democrats, just as he did in the primaries. Â And it will only be getting worse as we head to the election. Â This wave is still building. – end update
The largest voting block in America is Independents. Â Many of whom are ex-GOP supporters chased from the Republican Party by the purity wars that erupted over the last few years and led to the GOP losing Congress. Â As expected, these independent voters are rejecting the far left liberalism (and apparent heavy handed tactics as he takes the reigns of the Democrat Party) and moving towards McCain, as shown in a recent poll:
In the first Washington Post–ABC News poll since the Democratic nomination contest ended, Obama and McCain are even among political independents, a shift toward the presumptive Republican nominee over the past month. On the issues, independents see McCain as more credible on fighting terrorism and are split evenly on who is the stronger leader and better on the Iraq war. But on other key attributes and issues — including the economy — Obama has advantages among independents.
McCain, being a moderate conservative (instead of a ‘true’ conservative), is closer to the natural median of American views. Â And he has a nagging habit of being conciliatory, respectful and willing to work across the aisle. This bugs those closer to the fringe who sometimes seem to want civil war instead of civil discourse. Â If I am right about the mood of the country they want to stay away from the fringes. Â Obama, for all his sweet talking facade, is very liberal and is showing a negative side to his persona:
The Obama team announced today that it had picked former Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle to serve on its general election staff. Fair enough: Solis Doyle is a native Chicagoan with deep ties to many senior Obama aides.
But Solis Doyle — who after her firing midway through the primaries is no longer on speaking terms with much of the Clinton inner circle, including the senator herself — has been tapped to serve as chief of staff to the future vice presidential running mate. Not exactly a signal that Obama is considering Hillary Clinton for the job.
At least that’s how Clinton loyalists see it. “It’s a slap in the face,” Susie Tompkins Buell, a prominent Clinton backer, said in an interview. “Why would they put somebody that was so clearly ineffective in such a position? It’s a message. We get it.” She said it was a “calculated decision” by the Obama team to “send a message that she [Clinton] is not being considered for the ticket.”
Obama is cold and calculating once you get past that veneer of ‘hope’. Â I still say the guy is out of his league and will not wear well over time. Â Which will be the big surprise results for this earliest of early primaries. Â I bet there is way too much time for one of these candidates before election day.
Â
Thank God that McCain finally came out for offshore drilling! He’s still completely clueless about ANWR (as if he thinks that stand alone will make the NYT love him) but at least he’s stopped campaigning in fear of what the Sierra Club will think. His line about giving increased royalties to the states is exactly what needs to be done to spur state support of shelf drilling, and is a move that should have been made 40 years ago.
Why isn’t ANWR a choice for Alaska?
Since you asked, Kathie, it’s not a choice for Alaska because in 1980, under Jimmy Carter, Congress passed the “Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act” which among other things designated that area as a protected federal wilderness area and which stripped the State of Alaska of all jurisdiction over that area.
This is something to remember whenever some conservative claims the country could survive 4 years of Obama. Jimmy Carter only had 4 bad years, and yet 30 years later our economy is still paying for the mistakes he made.
“…the fact he is the most far left candidate with the least experience ever run…” once again your relationship to facts is suspect. and if the basis of your argument is factually incorrect then what good is your argument?
who has no relationship to the facts? Obama is much farther left than McGovern was – at least McGovern had been a WW2 bomber pilot and had SOME military credibility.
And Obama ain’t never run nothin’ but his mouth. Just try to name another national candidate, *ever*, from either party, who had less qualifications than Obama. Even GWB (Don’t forget to cross yourself at the mention of his name) had 6 years as Governor of Texas.
The only time Obama’s logged has been spent as a no-name backbencher in a rubber stamp legislature. Yeah, he did get some good experience in shaking down the system and laundering payoffs through Tony Rezko, so I guess he’s got at least one thing he can point to.
I would like a candidate to pledge beginning construction of at least 10 new nuclear plants before their term is done.
Also, I have an interesting idea. How about this:
Allow the government to drill in ANWR and have the government build two refineries. That oil and the output of the refineries would go toward government petroleum needs such as jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline for government vehicles. That does a few things. First of all it saves the government a LOT of money which can be used to offset tax reductions or make existing tax reductions permanent. It also leaves more fuel in the private sector and give us a break on the price of fuel. And thirdly, it gives our military a domestic source of fuel in case of the cutoff of supplies from outside the country.
As part of the drilling and refining, the government could provide a testbed for newer, cleaner technologies which would eventually filter out into the civilian market. It seems to me to be a win/win. Saves the government money, saves us money, provides greater security, and can pay off for a long time down the road.
Never happen.
I agree that Obama is still pissing off Clinton supporters. Not only that…..Obama supporters “boo” every time Clinton’s name is mentioned. That’s not good either.
But, I don’t see how Independents being evenly divided between centrist McCain and liberal Obama means anything except “what the hell is wrong with Americans”? In fact, Bush and Gore split the Independent vote evenly heading into the General election (and Bush was viewed as very conservative at the time).
If Americans trully wanted a centrist…..then shouldn’t McCain have 60% of the Independent vote? It could still happen, I suppose. We are only in the beginning phase of the general election. I just don’t see it yet.
Where am I wrong?
Mr. Patch, I think that is absolutely brilliant! It fits the lefty narrative of gubmint good, private enterprise bad, and would have the effect of increasing supply. McCain campaign needs to know about this, Obama would tie himself in knots trying to oppose it!
Well, send it along to them. I don’t have the ear of anyone in any position to get something like that to a candidate being pretty much an average Joe Blow who works for a living. I do think such an idea would be the kind of compromise solution that this country needs more of. Sadly I think both sides would oppose it. The far right would see it as an attempt to “nationalize” a portion of the oil industry (but I would hope limiting the use of it to only government consumption would ease that, not putting the government in the commercial energy sales business) and the left wouldn’t like it because it doesn’t control the people’s behavior and require them to be dependent on the government.
But I would hope a Republican sees it before BO does because if HE ran with that idea first, it would be hard to counter it.
I think that when more and more people realize how far left Obama really is, it could hurt him. When they think of Democrats and the economy, they are thinking of Clinton…Obama makes Bill look downright conservative.
I doubt that we will see drilling in ANWR, and even if we do it will not effect the high gas prices that are pissing people off.
We do need to increase production however. I also think that more alternative energy sources should be developed and nuclear power should become more prevalent. But for the short term, flex fuel cars {which McCain does support} and other conservation minded efforts can help slow down increases. I hope, because it will take years to develop new fields even if the Congress does not block it.
I heard part of a report on the radio today about a new hybrid that emits only water vapor. I think it was made by Honda. The reporter asked about stations for charging the cars etc and the president of the company pointed out that when Ford made the first Model T, there weren’t any gas stations. The cars come first he said. I hope so.
I thought that when news came out about the big new oil field off of Brazil prices might come down. But the news did not even impact the market. I am thinking something else is going on there as well. Like maybe the dollar.
I think one reason they have shied away from ANWR is that the natives do not like the idea. Now all of a sudden the government cares about the natives. I also wonder if they are sitting on some of this oil…just in case.
“I also think that more alternative energy sources should be developed”
Those developments will speed up when they become competitive with conventional sources. Increased cost of conventional sources speeds up that timeline and makes alternative sources a more attractive option.
BUT, there is no magic wand one can wave and “presto” out pops an alternative energy source. People seem to have this notion that we can “just make it so” and alternative sources will appear.
Nuclear is an alternative source we already have. It requires no new technology development and it is already cost competitive. Newer plant designes are safer and more efficient. There are ways to recycle spent fuel into new fuel that other countries (France, China, Japan, India, Russia) are already using. There is no need to bury spent fuel rods.
Frogg:
Most Americans think McCain is a conservative. Republicans think he is a moderate. I think he is a moderate, but more Americans think he is conservative and right now conservatives are not as popular as they were 4 years ago.
“I think one reason they have shied away from ANWR is that the natives do not like the idea.”
There are no natives in ANWR, it is unpopulated. It is pretty doggone desolate.
crosspatch:
You are right, there is no magic wand and I think people forget that sometimes.
In fact, the shale oil development that Congressional Democrats voted against is dependent on relatively high oil prices. If prices fall too much it is not worth the money to go after the oil whatever Congress does or does not say.
That is true with a lot of these things.
Nuclear power is an option. I was also reading about wind farms. I used to think that was just a joke, but even in Oklahoma where the wind is always blowing, wind farms are starting to pop up.
crosspatch:
I know that, but there are natives in the general area and they consider that ground theirs. I saw some of them on one of the national news shows some time ago complaining about how everything they have is spoiled etc…..
In truth the place is just tundra.
This is the kind of thing I am talking about.
However, the Inupiat are starting to come around. It would mean revenue for them.
Terrye, I think most Americans know McCain is a moderate. Especially with all the hoopla that went on from conservatives during the primary. They know his nickname is “Maverick” and they know he broke from the GOP to side with the DNC on several high issues. They know Dem Lieberman supports him. I don’t think there is any confusion over McCain being a moderate.
So, McCain is tied with Obama on the independent vote just like Bush was with Gore.
What’s different?
John McCain’s Blog has extended an open invitation to Hillary Clinton and her supporters that would like to attend a McCain rally.
Michael Goldfard posted the invitation Tuesday on The McCain Report which is McCain’s official Blog
Here is the text and video:
Obama Crowd Boos Clinton
Last night at an Obama rally in Detroit, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, who had previously endorsed Senator Clinton, took to the stage to show her solidarity with Barack Obama now that the voters (or the party insiders as the case may be) have handed him the nomination. But Granholm, like Team McCain, still seems to hold Senator Clinton in high esteem–she tried to praise the former first lady as a “great American.”
She couldn’t even get the words out before the crowd turned on her and began booing. Here’s the tape, watch it for yourself. We just want to assure Senator Clinton’s supporters that their attendance at McCain rallies will be warmly recieved, by Senator McCain and his supporters. Of course, if Senator Clinton wants to show up to any of our events in person…consider this an open invitation.
http://www.blogsforjohnmccain.com/mccains-blog-extends-open-invitation-hillary-clinton-after-she-booed-obama-rally
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Smart move on McCain’s part. I do think Hillary supporters are tired of the treatment they have gotten from Obama, Obama supporters, and the MSM.
Yep, we need to let McCain do what he needs to do. That’s called p-o-l-i-t-c-s… NOT called running for priest or bishop or pope or pastor or rabbi.
This race is shaping up to be very, very interesting. Many things are NOT being told to pollsters…hehehe.
Praying hourly.