Jul 03 2008
Anchoress Is On A Roll!
No need for me to add this. The esteemed Anchoress provides a reminder of all we have to be thankful for this 4th of July weekend, and all the things Obama’s campaign and the dems are doing wrong in light of it. A must read this 4th!
AJ,
It is funny how you keep claiming that Obama’s campaign is faltering when McCain is the one behind in the polls (with the margin increasing over the last couple of weeks) and the one shaking up his campaign. Did you miss the fact that yesterday McCain dumped his campaign manager. Here is the report – http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25505302/. It notes that McCain’s move was in response to “Republican concerns that his candidacy was faltering.”
But really, who doesn’t agree that changing your campaign manager a few months before the election is a sign of a really strong campaign? Too funny!
Your post is hilarious. Why? Because McCain was faltering and so far behind in the polls during the Republican primary; yet, he emerged as the winner.
He may surprise ya by emerging as the ultimate winner in November..
AJ: Hi, I sent you an email with some information, you can use for a Post if you find it useful.
Happy 4th of July everyone.
R/dale
Lurker,
Wow, quite a novel theory. Maybe McCain thought his campaign was going too well so he shook things up because he operates better when he is faltering.
I’m certainly not saying that McCain can’t win in November – a lot can happen between now and then. Just like McCain’s top campaign adviser Charlie Black said last week, McCain would really benefit from another terrorist attack. But make sure you don’t confuse the Republican primary with the general election. The Republican primary did not include Democratic or Independent voters, whom based on the latest polls well outnumber the Republican voters. McCain ran against a number of opponents and won only a plurality – not even a majority of the Republican voters wanted McCain. And you cannot compare Obama’s campaign, which is well organized and funded, to the lame campaigns that Guilianni and Romney ran.
conman, compared to how democrats usually poll at this point, Obama is in very bad shape. Republicans ALWAYS poll relatively poorly during the summer. That’s because, aside from political junkies like me, Republican voters generally have more pressing things on their minds before Labor Day.
Obama should have a 20+ point lead, given the present situation. He’s nowhere near that. And he’s making a bunch of really amateurish mistakes that will cost him further support.
AJ,
Thought you may enjoy this email sent to all American troops in Afghanistan from the Polish military stationed there. My husband fowarded me the email he received at Bagram Air Base, Afghanistan. It reads as follows:
Subject: 4th of July Greeting
Dear Friends
Two hundred and thirty two years ago, when your forefathers signed the
Declaration of Independence, they changed the history of the world.
Thanks to their sacrifices the world realized the true meaning of
freedom. Independence and freedom are powerful words in your country as
they are in Poland. When the United States gained independence, Poland
was in the process of slowly loosing portions of its borders to its
neighbors. We appreciate your efforts towards a unified and independent
United States of America because we know how difficult it is to regain
freedom and independence. Today we can be very happy with living in
independent countries. Today we fight together for freedom for people
in other countries, like here in Afghanistan.
4th of July and Independence Day are identified in our country with
aspiring to freedom and that is why we are so happy that we can
celebrate this day with American soldiers signifying our common goals
for peace and freedom.
Today we wish you and your nation a peaceful and happy day.
Polish Soldiers
Polish Military Contingent Afghanistan
Colbalt,
Yet another novel theory. Obama should be concerned because his double-digit led isn’t enough at this point. Uh, I see. Are you sure you understand how these polls work? They typically indicate which number of those polls are registered Democrats, Republicans and Independents to make sure they have a good sampling. That would mean your theory that most Republicans check out in the summer would be apparent in the polling data. Sorry to break the news to you, but that is simply not the case. Read the polling data yourself.
In line with what the Anchoress said about the press, here’s some of the best feel-good news I’ve seen heading into the 4th. (With the exception of the incredible Columbian mission-impossible hostage rescue! Can anyone say “made for TV movie coming soon!”?)
Anyway, take a look at what happened to McClatchy’s stock price today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MNI
And for a real laugh, take a peak at the 1 year chart! Then 2, then 5. The max chart gives a great visual depiction of what’s happened to the newspaper business in this country, and that picture is definitely worth 1,000 words.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MNI&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
The sooner they get off the stage, the better. Oh, and there’s no point in coming up with plans for a turnaround. Financially, they’re past the point of no return.
cj_thespook,
My Uncle’s Dad fought in the Polish resistance against the Nazis, it was a brutal fight. The Polish people are so extraordinary and the Nation has fought and succeded against attempts to eradicate its people, religon and Nation. I have always been inspired by their courage and strength, wether it was Thaddeus Kosciusko or General Pulaski. The Poles fought the Nazis and the communists and have been at the forefront for freedom throuhout Europe and the World. Let the History books show it was the Poles and Solidarity who first cracked the Communist Monolith. From their Resistance in 44 to the tearing down of the wall, they have been amazing in their courage and honor. I had the luck to meet just a couple Polish soldiers while on duty in Iraq, it was brief but still great to see their support. Their country and their people provide a beacon to the world. God Bless Them
CJ, If possible could you foward this to those soldiers, they deserve the compliment.
Robert,
I sent your message to my husband and ask that he send this out to his folks there. Thank you for your kind words and most of all….THANK YOU for your service to this wonder country. Happy 4th!! God Bless.
Yet another novel theory. Obama should be concerned because his double-digit led isn’t enough at this point.
Gallup has him with a 4% lead. I’d shut up about “novel theories” if I were you, since you seem to have some novel theories of mathematics. 4 is not double-digit number in the mathematics I learned.
He should have a huge lead–20+ points–at this point.
He doesn’t.
The GOP votes much better than it polls.
Uh, I see. Are you sure you understand how these polls work?
No, and neither do you, if you were to be honest. Neither does ANYBODY, outside of the polling organizations, because they do not give full disclosure of the details of their polls, most notably the hang-up rate, which can skew a poll dramatically because it is affected by many things–including, for example, personality type and personal life factors–that tend to be strongly correlated with political alignment.
They typically indicate which number of those polls are registered Democrats, Republicans and Independents to make sure they have a good sampling.
And they don’t tell you how many Dems, Republicans, and Indies said something short, obscene, and most likely anatomically impossible in response to someone calling them during the dinner hour.
Read the polling data yourself.
As soon as the polling organizations start printing ALL of the data, sure. But I shan’t hold my breath waiting for it. Asphyxiation is supposedly an unpleasant way to go.
conman:
Right now Obama has an average lead of about 5.7 in the RCP polls. and that includes an outlier. That is close. And the election is months away.
Besides, if Obama is so sure of his lead and is so far ahead, why does he feel the need to lie, change his positions, use people, and in general turn himself into a pretzel?
I have no idea who will win, but I think Obama is far from a sure thing. Especially if the American people get to know him better. To know him, is to distrust him.
BTW conman in that double digit lead you are talking about the number of Republicans was only 22% That is how to rig a poll.
Both the Newsweek and LA Times polls under represented Republicans and over represented Democrats.
But who knows? The thing is Obama will spend the fourth hoping we do not think about Jeremiah Wright screaming God Damn America. Especially when we contemplate the Indepence Days that John McCain spent in captivity. What a comparison to make.
Obama has always polled better than he performs because many Americans don’t want to admit to pollsters that they won’t vote for a 1/2 black man..
He’s doing himself serious damage by flipping and flopping like a fish out of water. I just hope McCain doesn’t throw the fish back in.
cj,
thank you.