Updates Below!

A couple of weeks ago I realized Obama probably cannot win in November because the gulf between is radical base and the rest of America is too big to bridge. My premise was this:

The calculus required for Obama to win enough votes against John McCain appears to be based on fantasy math. There are times were things just cannot line up, no matter how much people wish they could. But Obama has to knit together a coalition which is impossible to because each side is repulsed by the other, and McCain just doesn’t represent the kind of political enemy required to push these opposing groups together.

Since then Obama has been on the Flip-Flop Express, breaking one campaign promise to his radical base after another. It started with public funding for campaigns, but quickly escalated to include the Iraq War, FISA, Abortion, Gun Control and the Death Penalty. Obama ran so far right he may have passed the GOP Maverick McCain!

Today the Senate will vote on the FISA bill, stealing a core issue from the far left who have been panicking over the supposed second coming of Nixon ever since the NY Times fooled them on what was going on between FISA and the NSA (numerous posts on the reality can be found here).

This may be the tipping point for Obama, because without his liberal base he cannot win in November. But since he is now taking the same positions as McCain, trying be a moderate Republican for all intents and purposes (just look at his abortion comments of late), the far only has two bad choices in front of them, and a lot of broken promises (some would say lies) behind them. The anger and frustration is starting to boil, because these zealots believed these issues were the sign of Satan-Bush-Hitler himself, signs of evil here on Earth.

And now that Obama is moving towards Bush the liberal zealots are rampaging:

The same Internet-fueled power that led to historic gains in organizing and fundraising for Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign is now providing a platform for fiery dissent in a most unlikely place: his own Web site.

Amid criticism from the left that he has eased toward the center on a number of issues in recent weeks, the presumptive Democratic nominee has angered some of his most ardent supporters while triggering something of an online mutiny. Thousands are using MyBarackObama.com to angrily organize against him because of a changed position on terrorist wiretap legislation that awaits Senate action as early as Wednesday.

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That same day, a new online group named “Senator Obama—Please Vote NO on Telecom Immunity—Get FISA Right” formed on his campaign’s social networking Web site. Now with more than 22,000 members, it is the largest group on MyBarackObama.com.

The online group is flooded with messages of disappointment and disillusionment. Some threaten to ask that their campaign contributions be returned, while others suggest they will simply stay home this fall.

One man even said he had removed his Obama bumper sticker from his car. “It’s the first and only bumper sticker that I’ve ever put on a vehicle that I owned, so my disappointment felt personal and significant,” he wrote.

Emphasis mine. That number of folks now hammering Obama on his own website is huge – and growing. Obama has illustrated again how his neophyte nature has led him the blunder exponentially. First off, he gave his followers space on his electronic billboard to divert from his own message and reflect their phobias and craziness onto him, but then he compounded the mistake by giving them so much ammo all at once.

Look at how some of these folks outside the Obama website are fuming and giving up on November. Here is one on Obama’s FISA flip:

I do not believe Barack Obama. I will go further. I do not want to believe him. Because the alternative is worse. Because if Obama believes the BS he said about the FISA Capitulation bill, then he is not fit to be President.

Here is one angry woman on Obama’s abortion stance:

Voting is sacrosanct for me. I have not missed voting in an election in more years than I care to count. But I can’t remember the last time I saw a Democrat list so far to the right that their actions made them look like a Republican in Democratic-sheep’s clothing.

It’s become clear that there will be no wooing going on by the Obama campaign. And unless something changes, it feels like Obama is actually thumbing his political nose at his supporters, early adopters or not.

So, can I really in good conscience cast a vote for someone who, for all appearances, seems to be turning his back on important issues?

Barrack has broken promises, there is no undoing the damage. No one will believe him anymore. The wonder-kid as self destructed. And I think I see why.

He actually bought into his own “Messiah” shtick. He actually thinks he followers will follow him anywhere. He has been talking a lot like destiny has marked him to be President, so he can now openly and without any fear dump the fringe and go to the center (I said this would be an election which ran from the fringes of each party).

But what the wonder-kid doesn’t understand is how vulnerable he is for coup d’etat. Hillary has the popular vote lead. And if you remove Super Delegates Obama doesn’t have enough delegates to claim the nomination. Obama may have completely self destructed by his savage shift to the right, and given Clinton all she needs to take the nomination from him in Denver. As this person notes, the rookie is even more disappointing to the Clinton camp:

Hillary Clinton must be fuming. Only a month after sewing up the nomination, Barack Obama’s claim to be the Agent of Change is already unraveling He is proving belatedly that Bill and Hillary’s prediction was right: he is not ready for prime time.

…

In short, Obama has destroyed the credibility of his self-labeling as Change Agent. But even worse he’s been a poor and incompetent imitation of the Clintons. If you are going to feign respect for the military, flip-flop, make a play for religious voters, improve your spouse and avoid tricky situations at least do it well, or as well as the Clintons did. For Bill and Hillary it must be painful to watch. Did he learn nothing from them? Well, no.

Obama did learn their worst habit: believing that the media would provide cover regardless of how badly he performs and how craven his behavior. That is proving to be — in the short run — a gross miscalculation as the media has called him out for mistakes large and small. Having toyed with their hopes for a new liberal idealist, he has now disappointed them. Like a scorned spouse they are letting everyone know just what a cad he has been.

I think the liberal base is so pissed off this idea will soon be running like a wild fire through the leftward fever swamps. Their Messiah has forsaken them and turned to the dark side. That means he can be dumped in good conscience.

Update: Here is the link (better link here) to the insurgents for those who want to watch the crash up close. There is a lot of doubt about November now, as this sample post notes.

Tags: 2008 Election, Abortion, FISA, Flip Flop, Gun Control, Iraq War, Obama