Jul 28 2008
I postulated below Obama was not going to get much of a sustained bounce out of his dismal and error prone (if not lying as when he claimed he was on a Senate Committee he was not on and supported legislation he opposed) world tour. Â He simply demonstrated why he was the wrong man for the job. But I did no expect this big of a bombshell – McCain moving up 10 points in one poll:
Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among “likely” voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of “registered” voters. By both measures, the race is tight.
The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.
A “likely voter” sample is ALWAYS closer to what will happen in November than general public samples. Â This is a truly stunning turn around for Obama in one short month that had a world tour and massive donations. If this holds up in other polls (which it might) then Obama and the Dems are in big trouble. Don’t think Obama’s mistakes on Iraq will not bleed onto the most unpopular Congress in modern times. Â H/T RCP.