Major Update: Some reports indicate Zawahiri was at least hurt in the predator attack and may have died from his injuries:

US broadcaster CBS said it had obtained an intercepted letter from a Pakistani Taliban commander requesting urgent medical help for Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s right-hand man. Pakistan’s military said it had no information about the report.

Bill Roggio admits there are such reports out there, that this is not wild speculation, but warns that the sources are very suspect:

All of these rumors have been based on Pakistani intelligence sources, which makes the allegations suspect. Without confirmation from the US military or intelligence, the reports from Pakistan should be viewed with deep skepticism.

Well, allow me the opportunity look at this logically. There are two possibilities: (1) Zawahiri is hurt or dead, and (2) Zawahiri is fine. Think about what the motives would be to make up a story that Zawahiri is hurt or dead. It would make sense if the Taliban and al-Qaeda in the region wanted to give the US a pretend victory, a fake trophy head for our wall of accomplishments (right up there with Saddam Hussein’s).

The only reason I could think of to do that is to give the impression our work is all but done in the area and hope the pressure to appease and stop fighting from the Surrendercrats and SurrenderMedia would cause us to pull our forces back. That’s the only warped reasoning I can think of to fake Zawairi’s death. If it was the reason (and clearly it is not) then there would be confirmation of the ISI intelligence (remember, this is not the same as rumors). 

There isn’t denial from the Taliban. They have been very clear in their comments to their SurrenderMedia sources like AP – the only ones killed in the strike where children at a madrassa. So given the typical juvenile logic behind those claims and those sources I think I will take ISI intelligence over the Taliban-AP reports.  As I noted in my first post on this strike, someone big was in the area:

Those must be some high value targets to (a) spend three missiles on them and (b) target them while so close to a religious center where ‘innocent’ civilians could be killed or injured.

Yes, I want Zawahiri to be dead, but I cannot fathom any serious logical reason for the false reports from the ISI while the Taliban deny them. The two don’t really seem to go together. There are only so many reasons to make the false report, and they all have to do with hiding the fact that Zawahiri is alive and hoping we give up going after him. Without a body that ain’t going to happen. I know reports out of the ISI are suspect – I noted that myself. But they have typically tried to send us against empty targets or hide the movement of the enemy. This seems to defy that usual MO.

I respect Bill Roggio immensely, but it is not enough to claim the reports are suspect, there has to be a plausible reason for them to be.  And the only one I can think of is to get us to think we can stop chasing the terrorists and to make Pakistan look good.  After all the other false reports out of ISI, that doesn’t seem to be a smart move. And I can’t see our enemies be that stupid, they are way too deadly to be that stupid.

Update: Here is a link to the Taliban denying Zawahiri was injured or killed.  Here is the original CBS News story on the evidence the ISI provided them – and that too is suspect.  Why would the ISI leak this to the SurrenderMedia? That is one point in favor of this all being a hoax. However, one would think anyone caught falsifying reports inside the ISI would become suspect in the eyes  of many as to their true loyalties. Worth watching how this unfolds. – end update

 

Photo: AFP/GETTY

Too many times I have posted on Predator strikes in the Pakistan Tribal regions hoping Bin Laden or Zawahiri were the targets, only to be disappointed when the results were reported. This last time I decided to temper my optimistic nature to see if luck would change. There are rumors and counter rumors

today Zawahiri might be among those killed in the latest predator strike on Waziristan:

Stratfor reports that the United States is attempting to verify rumors coming out of Pakistan that al Qaeda’s #2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was killed in a July 28 Predator airstrike.

Intelligence sources told The Jawa Report last week that ‘the hunt was on’ in Pakistan for a ‘big fish’. Could this be the big fish they were talking about?

…

UPDATE: Bill Roggio from The Long War Journal e-mails and says he’s not buying it.

He says that there were at least two Egyptians reported killed: Abu Khabab al Masri and one other guy. He thinks maybe Stratfor heard “Egyptian” and “Waziristan” and equated it with Zawahiri.

Got my fingers crossed!

 

Tags: Predator, Waziristan, Zawahiri