Aug 05 2008
Emergency On The USS Obama!
Oh boy, Obama is in deep trouble with the electorate. The other day I predicted he would limp into the Democrat Convention behind McCain in the polls. I keep and eye on the Rassmussen and Gallup Daily Tracking Polls. And one poll I almost always ignore is the Zogby poll because it tilts so far left and is always way off from other polls. So imagine my surprise when it showed a McCain lead!
A national Associated TV/Zogby International telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency.
That is the 3rd poll to show McCain moving ahead, and I don’t think we are at the end of this shift in the American public. One thing many of the polls are showing is the independent middle is holding back, remaining undecided. This poll shows the same effect:
Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.
This is mostly due to Obama’s disastrous world tour, but it is also because of the intransigence of the Liberal Democrat leaders to not do anything serious about gas prices. When Pelosi ran home for a 5 week vacation (which includes the Democrat Convention) she left Obama out there as the lightening rod for the public to lash out at. Thanks to Obama’s gaffes and Pelosi’s obstinate position on energy they may have just elected John McCain the next President of The United States.
26 Responses to “Emergency On The USS Obama!”
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I’m pretty sure this isn’t going to help Obama either ..
The Gaffemeister is sinking fast.
He said that back in February 2005? The only thing I knew about him then was “the guy that made that great speech at the DNC in 2004″. I guess the bar for “overexposed” was pretty low then.
As for the polls… yes, please, let’s celebrate the fact that McCain’s misleading and outright false negative attack ads work on a decent portion of the American public. Hooray for American ignorance.
Again – get back to me after the conventions, with electoral numbers. Go ask Al Gore how important it is to have a lead in the national vote.
AJ,
You might be interested in the
Politico’s Martin Kady II and Patrick O’Connor have a story on how Nancy Pelosi has the GOP right where she wants it, in the sights of her carefully constructed plan to expose them as pro-consumer, pro-drilling enthusiasts effectively suppressed by the tool-of-the-radical-environmentalist fringe Speaker of the House.
And what moveon.org is planning to do against the House GOP’s protest:
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/moveon-plans-to-push-back-hard-against-house-gop-2008-08-04.html
Bret Stephens now declares: The war in Iraq is over. We’ve won. – bet with Fukuyama.
BTW, I just read a Gallup poll saying that 36 percent want incumbents re-elected. Then it looked back into the recent election history and took note that each time we see a 36 percent poll on this question, we saw a major switch from one party to the other.
Another good news?
College kids are make or break for Obama.
That is a main group his field people are trying to recruit right now.
If his moves to pander to the center are losing them he is in deep trouble.
funny how Breschau decries McCains “misleading and false ads” but does not deign to say a word about Obama’s provably false complaint that McCain and his supporters were racists.
Obama – “I’m the post racial candidate! And if you don’t love me you’re a racist!!”
btw, why can’t McCain be postracial? Is it possible for any white boy to be post racial? And if the answer is no, only blacks need apply for the label, then isn’t it really just a stupid marketing ploy that means nothing at all?
Breschau is making a mistake, hanging his hat on o.
Don’t blame the World Tour for everything.
Most people I run into are truely distrusted by Obama’s change and the fact that they have no real idea just what it is that he is going to change.
I think the reality for the election cycle is that Obama has already verbalized most of what it is that he knows he is going to change .. the “energy plan” that lacked that “Obama energy” shows nothing new htat we didn’t already know. Obama’s take of oil drilling is that it is a bargaining chip .. nothing more.
Frankly, the post-racial stuff is gone and so is the glow.
WWS:
Please provide the link for where Obama actually called McCain “a racist”. I must’ve missed that.
oh Christ, breschau.. get with reality.. if you can’t find this out on your own, why should anyone else waste thier time.
[...] we’re looking at a trend, particularly given Zogby’s leftward tilt the last few cycles. AJ Starta points up: This is mostly due to Obama’s disastrous world tour, but it is also because of the [...]
breschau:
If you missed that then you have not been paying attention. Your guy is his own worse enemy.
I am not sure what is going on with Gallup. First Obama is up by 9 and then 5 days later that lead is gone and then a few days after that he is up by 3…but the USA Today Gallup has McCain ahead by 4. I am wondering how these polls break down.
I heard that the Democrats are losing some of their advantage in generic polling and so the difference might just be a result of variations in demographics.
Rasmussens has McCain ahead by 2 today as well. And McCain is gaining ground in several states as well. Might see some change on electoral tallies.
Lots of time for both candidates to see saw some more.
“A national Associated TV/Zogby International telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama ”
That must explain why I heard absolutely nothing about that poll today on the commute to work.
Here’s the money quote, Breschau: and this came BEFORE the one about how “he doesn’t look like the candidates on the dollar bills” which even his top aids admit was meant to refer to his race.
(there are many links to Obama’s remarks, this was just the easiest one for me to find offhand)
http://patterico.com/2008/06/21/obama-says-republicans-will-run-racist-campaign-against-him/
Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama said on Friday he expects Republicans to highlight the fact that he is black as part of an effort to make voters afraid of him.
“It is going to be very difficult for Republicans to run on their stewardship of the economy or their outstanding foreign policy,” Obama told a fundraiser in Jacksonville, Florida. “We know what kind of campaign they’re going to run. They’re going to try to make you afraid.
“They’re going to try to make you afraid of me. He’s young and inexperienced and he’s got a funny name. And did I mention he’s black?”
I fully expect you to try to weasel out of admitting this by saying “OHHHHHH, he just said REPUBLICANS, he didn’t say JOHN MCCAIN personally, so that means he didn’t do it.” To give the tedious pre-rejoinder to the comment I know you’re dying to make, McCain is the Republican running this campaign. When Obama says “we know what kind of campaign THEY are going to run”, the pronoun THEY clearly refers to John McCain.
Therefore Obama has clearly and falsely accused John McCain of running a racist campaign. And to accuse someone of running a racist campaign is to accuse someone of being a racist. The only thing I get out of “they” is that not only does he accuse John McCain of being a racist, he accuses anyone who does not bow down before the Great and Holy Wisdom of Obamah of being racist.
Obama’s Outreach message, stripped to it’s core:
BOW DOWN AND WORSHIP OBAMESSIAH RACIST SCUM!!!
I passed by an Obama office in Santa Cruz, California last weekend. There was a big picture of McCain and it said McBush! on it. These nincompoops are STILL trying to campaign against George Bush … and will attempt to Cheney-ize any VP candidate.
It is actually hilarious to watch. They are so spun up on Bush hatred that it has impacted their thinking. What morons!
WWS:
No, I’m not going to argue that he wasn’t talking about McCain – although he may not have meant John McCain specifically, he was certainly talking about the McCain campaign. (And, even though the McCain campaign has said that John McCain doesn’t necessarily speak for the McCain campaign, I believe he does.)
What I’m going to say instead is that you are extrapolating an accusation of racism from a statement that just implies how political campaigns work. Stating “They’re going to say things like, ‘Oh, have I mentioned he’s black?” is certainly not equivalent to saying “John McCain is a racist.”
Otherwise, we have to start taking all kinds of statements from both candidates, and extrapolating them out to their exteme conclusions. For instance, when John McCain said that Obama “would rather lose a war than lose an election” – does that mean that McCain truly believes Obama is guilty of treason? Because, taken to its logical extreme, that seems to be exactly what it implies. Oh sure, he didn’t *say* the word “treason” – but Obama never said the word “racist” either.
And that’s not even getting to the most obvious point: stating that a black candidate is black *IS NOT RACIST*. (Calling him a n*gg*r would be, of course – but Obama never even came close to implying that.) What it does do is point out that some people who support McCain – or, more importantly, are against Obama – are truly racist. And this kind of stuff (the “dog whistle” tactics) will work on them.
Are you willing to state that not a single person who plans to vote for McCain – not a single one – is racist?
I mean, there’s a reason the GOP developed the Southern Strategy, after all. Let’s go to an expert in this field, Lee Atwater, for an explanation:
“You start out in 1954 by saying, ‘Nigger, nigger, nigger,’ ” said Atwater. “By 1968, you can’t say ‘nigger’ — that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff. You’re getting so abstract now [that] you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things, and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites.”
breschau:
“They’re going to say things like, ‘Oh, have I mentioned he’s black?” is certainly not equivalent to saying “John McCain is a racist.”
What? it’s not? Saying that John McCain is going to say: “Oh, have I mentioned he’s black?” I submit you don’t know what the word racist means.
For instance, when John McCain said that Obama “would rather lose a war than lose an election” – does that mean that McCain truly believes Obama is guilty of treason?
Apples and Oranges. Stating that someone desires to surrender has nothing to do with treason. As WWS said, you’re trying to weasel here.
And that’s not even getting to the most obvious point: stating that a black candidate is black *IS NOT RACIST* What it does do is point out that some people who support McCain – or, more importantly, are against Obama – are truly racist.
Let me get this straight, stating that Obama is black is not racist, but it points out that supporters of McCain are truly racist. Would you interpret this?
Are you willing to state that not a single person who plans to vote for McCain – not a single one – is racist?
Are you willing to state that not a single person who plans to vote for Obama -not a single one- is racist? In fact, are you willing to state Obama is not a racist? He’s the one playing the race card.
Okay, I have decided to be “the contrary but polite Obama supporter” on this blog (because AJ is a reasonable person, and spent so much time on the Obama COLB nonsense, and doesn’t immediately ban people that disagree with him like so many other red-state-esque sites), so I’ll play along.
Stating that someone desires to surrender has nothing to do with treason.
Please note McCain never said anything about “surrender” – he actually used the term “lose a war”. If somebody that is desiring the country to “lose a war” isn’t guilty of treason – than who is?
Let me get this straight, stating that Obama is black is not racist, but it points out that supporters of McCain are truly racist. Would you interpret this?
I’ll try again.
Stating that Obama is black is not racist. It is a fact. It’s equivalent to saying “John McCain is 70 years old, and has battled skin cancer, and clearly remembers the day the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.”
That is also a fact. (Well, except for “the Germans” part.) But, it reminds you that John McCain is *old*. And if your dog whistle is “old”, than you react.
If your dog whistle is “black”, then you react to the Obama stuff.
Honestly – this isn’t complicated. Democrats are trying to find ways to play the “McCain is old” line without stating so explicity, while Republicans are trying to play the “Obama is black” line in the exact same manner. It just so happens that the “Obama is black” line plays especially well in certain geographical areas of this country, on a very consistent basis. If you want to know where, just keep an eye out for confederate flags. (Which I see in my neighborhood on a depressingly consistent basis.)
I am not saying that everyone who votes for McCain is racist – you all have your reasons for doing so (though I just barely understand them), and I wouldn’t *dream* of accusing AJ of that. But if you are going to tell me that no one is backing McCain primarily or at least partially because of racism – you’re deluded.
Are you willing to state that not a single person who plans to vote for Obama -not a single one- is racist?
Nope.
In fact, are you willing to state Obama is not a racist? He’s the one playing the race card.
First off: my God, can we *please* ban “the race card” from any and all further public conversations? My word, but I am sick of that phrase.
Second off – no, I’m not. Because I’m not actually a personal friend of Obama, and I couldn’t speak to whether or not he was racist. Much like I can’t state that as a fact for you, or anyone else here: I don’t know you well enough.
So, Obama says, “This is what they’ll say about me.”
Bush has repeated made statements along the lines of “The Democrats will say [x].” Does that make [x] true? Or does it even mean that [x] is really the true opinion of the Democrats, as opposed to the hastily-comprised digest from the opposition?
We can cut the “race card” as long as Obama and his supporters will quit…even the implication of racism with and without having say it explicitly.
Bre, your arguments haven’t swung me over to your side. The other posters gave you a link of many examples showing that Obama is playing the race card, implicitly and/or explicitly.
I just re-read this thread from the beginning and something jumped out at me that is a bit of a tangent from the main topic here.
And that is this: Obama’s #1 campaign theme and campaign rationale is dead. And he can never get it back. This thread is a vivid illustration of that.
Obama ran as the “post-racial” candidate, the man who would take the country past all the racial divides of the past, the man who would usher in a new era of unity. That was his appeal, that was his rationale. With a man who had never actually done anything, what else was there?
But look what happens – at the first sign of difficulty, Obama himself falls back onto the old race-baiting tropes, and his supporters are even worse. This isn’t a “post-racial” campaign, this is probably going to be the most race-based presidential campaign in history, and Obama himself is the #1 guy leading the slide. Obama has let himself turn into Jesse Jackson v2.0, and his poll numbers show clearly what has happened to his support as that has happened. Sure, the hard core left who believes that the US is a racist nation will eat this up and support it – that’s a big problem for Obama. Because the middle doesn’t go for this kind of nonsense, and the middle decides elections. The middle is walking out on Obama right now – the numbers show it – and he’s not going to be able to sweet talk them back in.
Especially not when even his most reasonable supporters go around doing things like putting N***** quotes in their posts. That’s pure poison. Doesn’t matter what the point of doing that was – that’s the kind of thing that poisons a candidacy and drives the middle away.
breschau
Obama whole campaign is sinking because he is bringing out the race card. Peple are finally seeing what he is, a Black Liberation Theology follower.
Mojority of Americans do not want a Marxist in the Presidenct and he will drop farther than this before the Dem Convention. if he is not ahead by atleast 10 or 15 points in any of thepolls he is toast, because the Republicans are always under represented inthe polls.
this is probably going to be the most race-based presidential campaign in history
Well…. duh. For the first time in history, one of the candidates isn’t a white guy. What do you expect? If Hillary was the Democratic candidate, this would be the most gender-based presidential campaign in history.
Let’s step back and take a look at the bigger picture:
Both candidates have made dozens, if not hundreds, of speeches in the past several months of campaigning. During one (or a couple) of those, Obama says something like: “They going to make you afraid of me. They’re going to say, ‘He has a funny name’. They’re going to say, ‘He doesn’t look like the other Presidents on our currency’.”
And from *that*, you all clutch your pearls and faint on the couch, screaming “Racism!”? Really? That’s all it takes?
Me thinks thou doth protest too much.
Hey, it wasn’t the Democrats who decided to divide the country in half, and then explicitly appeal to the racist parts of the country (along with the fundamentalist religious parts, and the rabid anti-gay parts, and the anti-evolution parts, and the “The Muslims are going to kill us all!” parts). Don’t believe me? Then *you* explain “the Southern Strategy” in a way that doesn’t mention racism.
AJ’s already written about this multiple times, concerning what the modern GOP has done to the party name, and “real” conservatives and such. Don’t blame me for simply holding up a mirror to y’all.
breschau
while Republicans are trying to play the “Obama is black” line in the exact same manner.
Did I miss something here? It was Obama that played the’Obama is black’ card and I haven’t heard that he had joined the Republican party.
You’re trying so hard to portray Obama as the ‘good guy’ you’re twisting yourself into a pretzel.