Aug 20 2008
Obama Crashing In The Polls Part II – UPDATED!
Previously I posted on some terrible polling news for Obama as he slid 12 points against John McCain in the last month in the LA Times/Bloomberg poll. Now a Zogby Poll (forever unreliable, I know) shows a dramatic shift towards McCain as well:
McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.
…
This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%.
That’s another 12 point drop for Obama. Clearly something is seriously wrong in Obamaland has he limps into the Democrat Convention next week.
Update: The latest Battleground Poll out shows McCain with a 1% lead. Also noteworthy are numbers on Iraq. 56% says things have gotten better in Iraq, up from 32% since just May. 15% say things are worse, down from 30% in May. So the negative/postive gap went from 2% to a whopping 41% just since May!
30 Responses to “Obama Crashing In The Polls Part II – UPDATED!”
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Will he be too arrogant to choose Hillary. It would help him win!
What is your prediction of the polling numbers post-DNC convention? Will Obama see a small bounce after the DNC and especially after the Invesco speech?
Also after the RNC? Will Obama’s numbers come down after RNC?
I think you called this one ahead of time, AJ.
I think two things have crushed Obama’s numbers: First, of course, his incredibly inept non-response to the Georgian crisis, in sharp contrast to McCain’s immediate strong response.
Second, the Saddleback forum was huge – and Obama bombed. It was a huge strategic mistake for his handlers to let him go there – of course Obama had no clue that he was about to get his clock cleaned.
“That’s above my pay grade” is going to do down as one of the most memorable quotes of the campaign, on the same level as “I was for it before I was against it.” Get ready to hear that one a lot in the future.
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/straw-poll
McCain 68 Obama 32
It’s a weekly poll, just re-started currently with 75000 votes.
I have tried to get “serious” pollsters to discuss why this poll is
so different from MSM polls. In a typical week it accrues 500,000 votes,
so the sample size is huge. It has anti-robot features and unless you
are into deleting cookies, just gives you one vote. You could argue that
it allows europeans to vote. So what? That should give the poll an
Obsama bias. You could say that it leans towards Internet users.
So what? That should give the poll an Obsama bias. So what is going
on?
So somebody is lying. Jay Cost won’t touch it. Probably worries about
“losing his credibility”.
I just guess that if the entire MSM is in the tank for BHO, then
why would we expect the MSM pollsters to be exhibiting a sudden
streak of rebel honesty?
All states Red.
Last week we lost DC for a while, but we got it back.
Kathie,
Fresh from the PUMA websites,
Why would Hillary agree to serve under Obama?
She’s got 2012 pretty much wrapped up, unless she rescues BHO.
That’s assuming she fails in getting the nomination next week.
All the tea leaves point to her trying to win the nomination next week.
The last thing she wants to do is help elect Obama. She is not stupid
and understands that an Obama victory may well be the last Democratic
Presidency for a very long time (as any observant person could have
told the Brits about Gordon Brown after his coup d’etat against Tony Blair).
If she becomes Obama’s VP, she goes down with the ship. Hillary is
counting on either getting the nomination in 2008, or discreetly watching
Obama lose to McCain.
daveM, I agree she would be stupid to join Obama. She knows he is unelectable. She tried to tell MSM they needed to look into his background. But of course they demonized her instead. Not that she didn’t deserve it! I think that is why Bill was so irate, he knew that Obama is nothing more then just words.
OK Lurker, going out on a limb here. Obama should get a 3-5% pop in the polls. But with the GOP convention the very next week it will be interesting to see what happens. But I predict McCain jumps ahead again while Obama fades, leaving about a 3-5% lead out of the conventions.
And then comes the 9-11 anniversary, which should play to McCain (unless he bumbles it like he did with the ‘no attack ads’ thing on 9-11). The memorial always reminds America that we are still at war.
Wild cards: the VP selections.
I was watching an excellent “In Depth” episode on C-Span last night featuring Tammy Bruce. Very interesting woman. She indicated that before becoming the largely conservative person that she is today, she had voted for Bill Clinton, TWICE. In the end she felt betrayed by his character and duped by his false promises. Let’s all remember that Bill Clinton had to purport to be something he was not in order to get elected. Ms. Bruce indicated this was the beginning of her trek toward the right politically, the realization that she had been duped. .
Following Bill the Democratic Party has presented us with Al Gore, and then John Kerry. Both being the liberals they are, they too had to pretend, had to obscure, dodge, and in general give non-answers to questions, for fear that if the voting public found out who they really were (socialists) they wouldn’t get elected. Every candidate has a style of communicating that’s either appreciated or isn’t, but in the end it comes down to questions that the voters want answered, and straight answers have come to be more valued, over time, I believe because of Clinton, Gore, and Kerry.
Which brings us to my point. I think we have a cumulative effect here, especially among women who are particularly wary of males who purport to be someone they’re not. (And that would be……all of them) .Barack Obama has begun to remind them not only of the worst traits of Clinton, Gore, and Kerry, but the democrat’s opponent gives straight, concise answers to questions, and this stark contrast is scoring an awful lot of points for McCain among women, IMHO.
Part of the reason for the drop is the initial poll with the big lead for The One was shouted down at the time as being a faulty poll and an outlier from all other contemporary polling at the time.
It was almost like someone wanted to cook the books on a poll way high for The One so that it would pull up the averages reported by the poll aggregation sites.
davem:
“I have tried to get “serious” pollsters to discuss why this poll is so different from MSM polls.”
If I had to guess, I’d say that those pollsters probably feel anyone who consistently uses the phrase “Obsama” does not deserve any “serious” attention. Try acting like you’re out of junior high school, and see if you get any better results.
I spotted this quote from BHO in the news: “Our job in this election is not just ‘win,’ although I’m a big believer in winning,” Obama said during the rally. “I don’t intend to lose this election. John McCain doesn’t know what he’s up against.” I think BHO better get used to disappointments. His association with Bill Ayers hasn’t hit the national wires yet.
For the 15% that makes up the hard left, things ARE much worse in Iraq – the US has won! For leftoids, this is an absolute disaster. No wonder they are depressed about it!
Good News for America is Bad News for Democrats.
The national polls were irrelevant when they showed Obama with a huge lead or when they showed him with a smaller lead, and they’re irrelevant now, whether they show McCain ahead or not.
Why? Because we don’t have national elections. The only thing that matters is electoral votes. Whether Obama is behind 20-80 or 10-90 in a full-on red state does not have a thing to do with the election results, and vice-versa for McCain in full-on blue states.
538-dot-com is still showing a lead for Obama, but it’s MUCH smaller than it was a month or so ago. (And some of the “purple” designations confuse me – why is FL purple with a 28/72 split, but VA isn’t with a 40/60 split?) Indiana is looking much better for McCain, PA is looking good for Obama.
So, overall, it’ll probably come down to the same 2 or 3 states from the last two elections. Whee.
“For the 15% that makes up the hard left, things ARE much worse in Iraq – the US has won!”
ZOMG – AWESOME!!!!1111!!eleventy-one!!
So – when can the soldiers come home?
Did the soldiers come home the day after the US won in Germany?
Did the soldiers come home the day after the US won in Japan?
Why not?
They come home when Iraq is strong enough to keep stability on its own. Iraq still has no air force, for example, and poor logistics ability. That will take some time. But you know that, even Obamessiah has admitted as much.
Hey Brescau
I thought “Obsama” was pretty cool.
Like in the song:
Obama ?
Osama ?
Oh Lama !
Oh Mama !
What’s with you libs? Have ye no sense of humor at all?
Anyways, musical interlude over,
the poll is the poll. With an average weekly sample size of 300,000 to
500,000 votes, it is not to be sniffed at. Your run of the mill Zogby poll
has about 3000 respondents – two orders of magnitude less.
See, I don’t need to participate in Jersey Politics, McCain will beat Obama. So, I can do the right thing and vote for someone who will uphold the Constitution, and others can call the “R” and “D” Jersey crowd names.
The only looser is this Country. But it will be slightly better with Juan than Barry.
Another telling point here, is even with a focused effort for registration of new voters and his field workers doing everything they can in Florida to work the tenor of the election it still has not paid off for him.
He has hundreds of his ‘Obama fellows’ college kid volunteers working the area to garner support and it still is not really paying off as much as that kind of effort should.
I have seen media sites saying Obama has placed over 9000 tv and radio spots versus almost none for McCain and most of the polls still show McCain leading in Florida.
Sounds like with all the full court press they still are not able to close the deal here just like all the problems he had with Hill in the primary.
The big loud and proud hype may be wearing out it’s welcome and some are really starting to ask ‘where’s the beef’.
Hey, has anyone seen any McCain Bumper Stickers or Lawn Signs yet? I ask this because, here in the Charlotte, N.C. area in 2000, and 2004, Bush Stickers and lawn signs were everywhere! But so far, I have not seen ANY McCain Bumper Stickers or Lawn Signs. I don’t think there is an excitement in my area for him.
By Contrast, Obama stuff is everywhere!
And I must caution you on your love of Mass Immigration from the Third World. Where I work, the Immigrants from The Middle East, Africa, India, Pakistan, are 100% for Obama. The only immigrants for McCain are the Asians.
So, through most immigration, we are importing Demacrate Voters. This was true where I work in 2004 as well. At least the Asians don’t all vote Dem. but the rest, I can’t even get through to them! I’ve tried! I tell them ANYONE BUT OBAMA. But they are under his spell.
Mark Krikorian covers this very well in his new book. We are turning our Country into a Demacrate Majority through Immigration, the terrible Public School System, and of course, the Media.
[...] AJ Strata shows us how this movement is a trend. [...]
GWOOD
You left out what a peach Edwards has turned out to be….no wonder women don’t trust us. And he has such nice hair and is a man of the people.
Latest Veep Rumours:
Obama takes Evan Bayh from Indiana. Safe and dull, the hope is for an edge in the midwest. Nutroots will be mad, but does Obama care? Who else will the left vote for?
McCain takes Tim Pawlenty, to counter Bayh’s selection. (midwesterner to counter a midwesterner)
If those do turn out to be the picks, then we are looking at Landslide McCain!!!
breschau:
Where as people who use the term Chimpy Bushitler and McShame deserve to be treated like the serious political commentators that they are.
In case you did not guess I am being sarcastic.
steve:
I have not seen any Obama stickers or signs, but I have seen a few McCain. But this is Indiana, people around here play this stuff pretty close to the vest.
WWS:
Bayh was a popular Governor here in Indiana. I really can’t imagine Obama carrying this state, Hillary beat him here in the primaries, but Bayh might help Obama here. When Bayh was here he was a moderate politician, he has gone left since he went to Washington. But he and his father are popular here.
So when is your junior high graduation?
Victory in a war has nothing to do with bringing troops home. They’re still in Germany and Japan and Kosovo, why would Iraq be any different?
Redteam:
Is anybody shooting at them or setting off suicide bombs in Germany or Japan or Kosovo?
I’d say that’s one thing that’s just a little different.
Oh, and here’s another – I don’t recall the elected leader of any of those countries recently calling for a timeline of when our troops will leave.
But other than that, you’re right – those situations are EXACTLY the same.
“breschau:
Where as people who use the term Chimpy Bushitler and McShame deserve to be treated like the serious political commentators that they are.
In case you did not guess I am being sarcastic.”
Really? Gosh – hadn’t noticed.
I ignore people on any portion of the political spectrum who insist on using made-up names – it’s just childish. I thought “McSame” was mildly amusing, but only to use once mockingly, not as a replacement for the man’s actual name. That’s no better than the GOP’s insistence on using “Democrat” as adjective instead of “Democratic” – it’s petty, and just reflects poorly on the person saying it.
[...] this is no way to limp into your party’s convention! I posted earlier (here and here) on a slew of polls showing Obama slipping against McCain. Even more polls are out this evening [...]
Redteam,
Apparently, you have absolutely no idea WHY we still have troops in Germany, Japan and Kosovo (or any other locations in the world.) I’m guessing that is the reason why you don’t understand why your comparison is so ridiculous.
In addition to Iraq and Afghanistan, the US military has a significant troop presence in the following countries/regions: Europe (100,000), Japan (35,000), South Korea (32,000) and Kosovo (1,500). http://politicalinquirer.com/2008/03/07/100-years-in-japan-germany-and-iraq-long-occupation-is-not-the-answer/ We keep these troops stationed there for specific strategic purposes, not because its customary to keep thousands of troops in countries we have defeated in war long-term just for kicks.
The US maintained troops in Germany (and other European countries) and Japan since the end of WWII primarily as a deterrant against the former Soviet Union and now Russia. Ever heard of the Cold War? We keep our troops in these countries as part of our NATO obligations to deter Soviet/Russian aggression.
The US maintained troops in South Korea since the Korean war as a deterrant against North Korea. These troops are there as a direct result of the fact that we did not win the Korean war, and therefore now have to keep a permanent troop presence there to deter North Korea from taking over our ally South Korea.
The US maintains troops as part of the NATO contingency in Kosovo to serve as peace-keepers because there is still ethnic tensions. In other words, the troops are still there because the underlying problems that led to the conflict have not been resolved.
Let’s compare to Iraq, where we have more than 140,000 troops plus 10’s of thousands of private security contractors. Bush’s official reason for the surge and keeping a large military force in Iraq was/is to provide security so the Iraqis can get there act together and take over. If we achieved “victory”, then there is no reason to maintain our troop levels. Unlike Germany, Japan and North Korean, there is no external threat that requires us to keep our troops there to serve as a deterrent. Moreover, we are maintaining this huge troop presence in Iraq notwithstanding the fact that our military commanders in Afghanistan are publically demanding more troops because of the deteriorating military situation in Iraq.
I suggest you go back and read General Petraus’ most recent testimony before Congress to educate yourself. While he testified about significant security improvements, he never used the word victory because he is smart enough to realize we haven’t achieved victory in Iraq yet. In fact, he described our security gains as “tenuous” and “reversible”, recognizing that the security situation will not be sustainable without the necessary political and economic achievements.
One would think that you people would be more careful about declaring victory in Iraq after prematurely doing so in 2003.