As many know I have been saying for over a year this is the election of the independents, who are repulsed by the fringes left and right and their manic obsession with party purity. It was the denigrating comments of the far right that lost the independents to the Dems in 2006, and it is the reason John McCain is now the GOP standard bearer and not a darling of the far right.  There is a reason Hannity, Savage, Levin and Ingraham are not happy with the direction of the GOP. 

Interestingly, Frank Luntz has put together a focus group of the independents for this week’s Democrat convention.  And what it is showing right now is really bad news for Obama and his feel-good facade of a campaign:

–“Change” as a theme is over. Too vague. And Obama’s rhetoric has begun to seriously cut against him. “No more oratory,” one woman said. “Give us details.”

Obama has no details, no core beliefs outside the idea we must run from Iraq at all costs. He has flip-flopped in abortion, gun ownership, the NSA-FISA issue, free trade, etc. No matter where Obama turns on the ‘details’ he either loses the liberal left or the moderate middle – and more than likely both.  He keeps trying to weasel word his way through with vagaries, like a used car salesman avoiding the defects – and Americans are fed up with it.

What do they want? Given a list of 31 personal attributes the next President might have and asked to pick the eight most important, “Accountability” finished highest with 13 votes, next was “Someone I can trust” with 12, “honest and ethical” was third with 11. “Agrees with me on the issues” got one vote. They didn’t care if the candidate was a Washington insider or outsider. “A dynamic and charismatic leader” got two votes…(Add: When Luntz asked them which was more important, “accountability” or “change,” the vote was 17 to 4 in favor of accountability.)

…

–Promises don’t work. Whenever Obama promised a $1000 tax break in one of the ads, the reaction was negative–the dial ratings went south. When he said that we’d spend less money on health if people took better care of themselves, the independents–many of whom were, shall we say, Big Gulp Americans–responded well.

The entire dynamic is against the rookie Obama.  What seemed like such a winning choice a few months ago in the glow of a dazzled and distracted media is now looking like the longest of long shots. He cannot con a skeptical and completely unaffiliated block of voters who will determine this election. His Jedi mind tricks won’t work on them – they want hard, honest answers.

Tags: 2008 Election, Focus Group, Independents, Luntz