I sense a major shift in American politics this year. There is a precedent: the flip of the “Solid South”.

The South, the former Confederacy, has always been a bit of a paradox. There was a fierce disdain for Republicans – not for racial reasons but because the Republicans had invaded. The south was settled by the Scots-Irish. Their basic political view is Jacksonian. The result was elected officials who wore the Democratic label but were philosophically Republicans more than Democrat – the Dixiecrats.

Lyndon Johnson famously said that signing the Civil Rights Act of 1964 had lost the South for the Democrats. He was wrong. The real reason was the Democratic Convention of 1968. The south was comfortable with the national Democratic Party until then. The parties were unified on national defense and the South’s power in the Congress disarmed the social differences. 1968 changed it all. They are Jacksonians to the marrow.

I see a similar situation today. This time the great divide is between the water hugging big cities and the rest of the country. It is between the pacifists and the Jacksonians.

There were the famous “Reagan Democrats”. A lot of them drifted back to their home in the Democratic Party. This year will see the rise of the “McCain Democrats”. I think fewer of them will revert.

Last night I heard some pundits saying they thought the Democrats would come back to the party before the election. Maybe yes, maybe no. I didn’t. And I doubt very much that I ever will.

So I guess that makes me an Independent, leaning Republican.

I am 56 years old and George Bush was the first Republican I ever voted for. I left the party because it had been taken over by loons. I am an Independent myself.

“I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy…”

Oh wait, Joe Biden said that.

Many people have been claiming (including some brain dead protesters in Denver) that this is 1968, again, but I think they’ve got the year wrong. That year the Dems still held the Presidency, after all.

No, this is 1972 all over again – and the Republicans have a far, far better nominee now. Of course, Nixon didn’t really “win” that election as much as McGovern lost it by tearing the dem party in two on an anti-war, ultra-liberal platform.

One of McGovern’s big themes right to the end was how the “youth vote” was going to be energized and was going to sweep this “new style of candidate” into power. Sound familiar?

Another coinkydink – McGovern’s collapse began in earnest with his disastrous VP pick, Senator Thomas Eagleton.

The only other 70′s dem nominee was Jimmy Carter. Will voters go for the dem rerun of That 70′s Show? Somehow I doubt it.

“staunch unaffiliated”? Seriously – how can you type something like this with a straight face?

You are a GOP party hack.

Show me the last time you wrote anything complimentary about Obama, or anything critical of McCain. You’re about as “fair and balanced” as Fox News.

80% of the world is talking about how successful Clinton’s speech was, and you have done nothing but bash it since last night. You literally have not said one complimentary, or even neutral word about it – the same for Michelle Obama’s speech the night before, which was also widely praised.

You could not be more in the bag for Republicans if you tried. Please show me any proof otherwise.

Liberalism’s most sacrosanct tenets have never been supported by history. They’ve had to revise history and spin current events while their pols have had to purport to be something they are not, to remain viable. The Dem party is a house of cards, it’s always had tenuous underpinning, and it may be crumbling before our eyes.

If Obama does go down to McCain, the party is going to have to head to the right a bit, in my view. I certainly don’t see how they could head more to the left than where they are right now.