This conference implies that this approach is being abandoned, and NASA itself is going to admit that something very, very out of the ordinary has been going on with the sun. What is it? Simply put, the suns magnetic field seems to be going into hibernation. Why this is happening and how long it will last no one can say. Another Maunder minimum is a possibility.

Check out instapundit about the 23 Sept NASA conference on “historic low” solar wind found by the Ulysses mission:

HMM: Sounds like the opening of a science-fiction thriller:

“NASA will hold a media teleconference Tuesday, Sept. 23, at 12:30 p.m. EDT, to discuss data from the joint NASA and European Space Agency Ulysses mission that reveals the sun’s solar wind is at a 50-year low.

The sun’s current state could result in changing conditions in the solar system.” (Via Watts Up With That).

The anecdotal evidence over the last year (which I know is not rigourous) suggests an unusually cold winter ahead. First snow in 100 years in Baghdad, unusually harsh winter in Australia, early end to summer in Canada and Alaska. Not to mention that we’re having late October temperatures in the middle of September. (at least where I live) By unusually cold, I mean something like the winter of 83/84 deep freeze, which is the coldest I remember. For my parents generation, it would be the winter of ’47. Winters just before and during WW1 were also unusally harsh, which suggests this is the kind of thing that comes around every 30 or 40 years.

Possibly, but it is going to take a while to have an impact. Remember we are at solar minimum so activity is normally low anyway. We have been low longer than the last solar minimum but not at unprecedented levels. It would take years for that change in solar output by itself to change the amount of heat in the oceans which is what ultimately drives climate.

But we are facing a triple whammy. PDO in cold phase, NAO in cold phase AND a reduction in solar output. It is going to be interesting. There are also some things to keep in mind. The overall solar radiation increases as the sun ages but over timescales of millions of years. Over the last couple of million years we have been in a period of 100K years of glaciation followed by 10K years of warmth and then another 100K years of glaciation. Ice ages last 10x longer than the warm periods. We are getting close to the end of the average duration of warm periods with this one and are due to slip into another glaciation period.

Also, the warm period before the last ice age was warmer than this one has been. It was warmer and shorter. This one is longer but cooler. Ultimately the greatest national security threat to Canada and Russia is ice.

It will be interesting to see if conditions on Mars mirror Earth issues tracking solar activity.