Sep 19 2008

Fly By 09_19_08

Wanted to just post a bunch of items I have been holding onto that I find interesting. Sadly for you folks sick of polls it contains a lot of polls. But for the rest of us propeller-heads there is some intetersting data points to ponder. Not to fear though, I am starting of with excerpts from the joint Town Hall McCain and Palin did in Michigan Minnesota recently:

 

Highlights from McCain-Palin town meeting in Grand Rapids

As many have noted another high profile Hillary Clinton supporter has jumped to the McCain-Palin camp, and that would be Donald Trump. I actually heard the announcement on Larry King and suffice it to say King did not seem happy.

The Washington Times did a great piece on Sarah Palin, comparing her to Teddy Roosevelt. I think the comparison is apt in many ways.

There seems to be a shift in the Jewish vote in NY City towards McCain, which wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

And now for some polls. Democracy Corps came out with a poll with analysis on the state of the race as seen from democrat consultants. The analysis covers national and 7 battleground states and is extensive. What I found interesting was this summary statement:

Though these results are challenging, this is still an election that Obama has at least an even chance of winning. In the battleground states, he is running 3 points ahead of Kerry’s performance in 2004, and thus, he is very much in the position to put together the majority he needs to win the Electoral College.

Read it with the realization they are applying lipstick to the current situation.

And PEW has a poll out as well, showing how Obama’s 5 point lead in July shrunk to 3 in August and now is completely gone in a tie. It also shows why things have tightened up, and the internals again seem too large to only result in a 5% change in the bottom line. From August to now McCain-Palin have increased their support +16 with Conservative/Republicans, +17 with Moderate/Liberal Republicans, and +9 with independents (Obama went +1, 0, -1 in these categories).

This is evident in a graph (which I sadly don’t have the time to post up) showing independents preferring Obama by 16-18 points all YEAR, and now McCain-Palin leads by 1. The shift in independents is most heartening – because that is the group which will determine the election. And I have seen many polls now with McCain-Palin leading in that group.

6 responses so far

6 Responses to “Fly By 09_19_08”

  1. AJ,

    This passage from the Democracy Corps poll sounds pretty desperate to Obama supporters to me.

    http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/09/the-changing-presidential-race-after-the-conventions/?section=Analysis

    “Sarah Palin’s nomination and the Republican convention had a big impact on the state of the race — though not the one the press has talked about. First, rather than persuading Hillary Clinton’s supporters to vote for McCain, Palin drove Clinton’s primary voters further into the Obama camp, with roughly 80 percent of Clinton’s primary supporters now voting for Obama. Second, the McCain-Palin ticket has solidified the support of white non-college men who are now voting for McCain over Obama by 63 to 29 percent nationally (a margin virtually identical to what Bush achieved against Kerry in 2004) and by 62 to 31 percent in the battleground states. These voters, who shifted towards the Democrats in 2006, are likely moved by McCain’s biography and national security and defense credentials, as well as Palin’s cultural rhetoric and style. The combination of these two candidates on the campaign trail — together with some discomfort by white non-college men about Obama — could make this a difficult group of voters for Obama to reclaim. We are not sure whether these voters will go back and this dynamic will likely tighten the race in the industrial Midwest states and maybe even the Western rural states.”

    If I parse that correctly, they are worried about Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, among other states.

  2. AJStrata says:

    Trent,

    Good catch, and I agree. Notice their ‘glass half full’ approach to Hillary supporters – kept 80%!

    But lost 20% – and 20% of 18 million voters is a lot of voters.

  3. ivehadit says:

    Wonder how that 80% is holding up now…after shift to McCain by Amie P, Lynn R, Donald T and other PUMA’s….

  4. pjo says:

    AJ:
    Grand Rapids is still in Michigan, contrary to what the source of the video tells you.

    The Democrats have left two big openings for McCain/Palin to exploit, Energy and the Mortgage fiasco. McCain needs to tie the Nancy P’s sham Energy Bill and Harry R’s cut and run tactics for Energy and the Mortgage Crisis around Obama’s neck like a couple of millstone. Also keep hitting Obama over the head with his buddy Franklin Raines, namely that the guy is being given a second chance to repeat his malfeasance. Then McCain need to point out how he had tried to head off the Mortgage Crisis a couple of years ago and how he has changed his mind on handling the Energy shortage, namely that the supply part of the equation need to be addressed.

  5. AJStrata says:

    Thanks PJO – I thought he was in Michigan!

  6. [...] really upset the pro-Obama CNN ‘news’ team. Donald Trump, another Clinton supporter, announced this week on Larry King he was also crossing over to McCain. I noted in a recent poll that McCain was [...]