Sep 19 2008
Wanted to just post a bunch of items I have been holding onto that I find interesting. Sadly for you folks sick of polls it contains a lot of polls. But for the rest of us propeller-heads there is some intetersting data points to ponder. Not to fear though, I am starting of with excerpts from the joint Town Hall McCain and Palin did in MichiganÂ Minnesota recently:
|Highlights from McCain-Palin town meeting in Grand Rapids|
As many have noted another high profile Hillary Clinton supporter has jumped to the McCain-Palin camp, and that would be Donald Trump. I actually heard the announcement on Larry King and suffice it to say King did not seem happy.
The Washington Times did a great piece on Sarah Palin, comparing her to Teddy Roosevelt. I think the comparison is apt in many ways.
There seems to be a shift in the Jewish vote in NY City towards McCain, which wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
And now for some polls. Democracy Corps came out with a poll with analysis on the state of the race as seen from democrat consultants. The analysis covers national and 7 battleground states and is extensive. What I found interesting was this summary statement:
Though these results are challenging, this is still an election that Obama has at least an even chance of winning. In the battleground states, he is running 3 points ahead of Kerryâ€™s performance in 2004, and thus, he is very much in the position to put together the majority he needs to win the Electoral College.
Read it with the realization they are applying lipstick to the current situation.
And PEW has a poll out as well, showing how Obama’s 5 point lead in July shrunk to 3 in August and now is completely gone in a tie. It also shows why things have tightened up, and the internals again seem too large to only result in a 5% change in the bottom line. From August to now McCain-Palin have increased their support +16 with Conservative/Republicans, +17 with Moderate/Liberal Republicans, and +9 with independents (Obama went +1, 0, -1 in these categories).
This is evident in a graph (which I sadly don’t have the time to post up) showing independents preferring Obama by 16-18 points all YEAR, and now McCain-Palin leads by 1. The shift in independents is most heartening – because that is the group which will determine the election. And I have seen many polls now with McCain-Palin leading in that group.