Sep 22 2008
Poll Prediction: Today Gallup Will Show A Tanking Obama
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Major Update – I was wrong, Obama holding at +4. Â My timing could be off, but I doubt it. Â Cheers, AJStrata
Gallup showed a resurgent Obama over the past few days shooting out to a 6 point lead on Saturday, 50-44%. Yesterday, though, that lead dropped two points (or 30%). All during this period other daily polls have shown only a 1 point lead for Obama, which is a statistical tie, all the while more and more state polls come rolling in throwing nearly all the blue-democrat parts of the country into the ‘toss up’ category. Also, a daily Battleground national poll shows a McCain lead of 1% today (see RCP for the complete list)
OK, I am just going to have some fun here and declare Gallup was on a bit of a wild binge when they were the only poll showing a break away for Obama recently. I would not be surprised to see Obama’s lead shaved to 2 points today, and coming in tied or behind tomorrow. I think there is prepatroy movement toward McCain-Palin being made ahead of this week’s first debate, and I think all McCain has to do is look good and he will take the momentum from Obama. I don’t think Obama is in control any more.
And if Obama should stumble, like he has been known to do, then he will lose a lot of support and this thing will be over. McCain can win just by being McCain. Obama must break out somehow, but he always runs the risk of shooting himself in the foot. Â I strongly suggest he not go back to the pig and lipstick schtick again.
Can’t wait for the first debate. And it’s on Foreign Policy and National Security…
Who is the moderator for the debates? I wouldn’t put it past the media to give Obama the questions ahead of time so he can prepare like he did for O’Reilly. Also, I wouldn’t put it past them to ask McCain hard questions and Obama soft ones.
Don’t worry AJ, I’m sure the Gallup methodology will be updated soon to reflect reality after Palin.
Rasumussen is still using a 33.5 rep – 39% dem sample selection, which is based on the August party affiliation sample. I think the split should be 34 rep, 36 dem, 30 other. The real key is the other. 30% of the electorate is huge for the non-partisan number especially for a polling firm. Do they poll people who are truly in the middle like yourself who will turn on both Republicans and Democrats depending on their behavior and positions.
Or do they poll people who are more democratic leaners or republican leaners. My impression of the current polls are they are weighted more towards democrats and other democratic leaners than will make up the voting population. It will not be until early October that Rasmussen publishes his party affiliation numbers for September, but I’m predicting a 2% gain for the Republicans.
My question to the Strata family who is turned off by Obama, are you willing to vote for Kilgore?
I cannot speak for the whole Strata group, but I helped campaign for the Republican ticket when Kilgore was running. I did not really support Kilgore but I really didn’t agree with Kaine. I was mainly campaigning for McDonnell running for AG. But due to being so busy campaigning and making sure people either requested absentee ballots or made it to the polls I forgot to request my own absentee ballot. So I would have voted for Kilgore, but in the end did vote at all.
AJ,
Would you settle for Obama tanking in Pennsylvania?
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31023/pennsylvania_electoral_college_2008_x
Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
Pennsylvania: Obama 45%, McCain 45%
September 22, 2008
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are tied in Pennsylvania, according to a poll by the University of Wisconsin-Madison. 45 per cent of respondents in the Keystone State would support either of the two senators, while 10 per cent are undecided or would vote for another candidate.
Trent,
Most definitely. I have that poll on my to be published list, with one or two others showing a serious problem in PA for Obama
AJ,
The Democrat’s media wing are engaged in some serious loser behavior in public that is hurting their cause.
see:
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/09/christian-leaders-outraged-over-wapo.html
I suspect that the Media types are being clued in to the “hostile audience” polling that serious Democratic politicans and 527’s are doing for Obama and other Democratic candidates.
That would explain why they are losing control.
Why are polls showing Obama expanding his lead in Virginia?
They are not – all tied here (as in PA).
The polls seem to have lost their ability to measure the real sense of the public.
Their models cannot handle this kind of race, and they are loathe to admit it.
I am contemplating a post on this sometime, but the bottom line is a 1000 person survey relies on 20 people each to represent each state and its demographics. But all the big states have gone into the toss-up column which means the old turn out models are broken.
There comes a point where you can’t fix it without mass surveying. I think they have simply been left behind by the massive upheavels in this race and won’t admit their polls are off.
The more cynical explanation would be they keep flipping the polls to generate traffic and revenue….
AJStrata