Comments on: Why Many Polls May Be Too Optimistic For Obama http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6124 High Flying Political Debate Fri, 10 Feb 2012 04:18:24 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: The Inacurracies of Polling Data | ...gettingpaidtowatch http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6124/comment-page-1#comment-388437 The Inacurracies of Polling Data | ...gettingpaidtowatch Sun, 28 Sep 2008 15:02:58 +0000 http://strata-sphere.com/blog/?p=6124#comment-388437 [...] AJ Strata takes a look at discrepancies in data from Colorado and Pennsylvania while pointing out the clear differences in polling versus actual party affiliation numbers that exist in states. [...] [...] AJ Strata takes a look at discrepancies in data from Colorado and Pennsylvania while pointing out the clear differences in polling versus actual party affiliation numbers that exist in states. [...]

]]> By: luc http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6124/comment-page-1#comment-388294 luc Sun, 28 Sep 2008 01:21:41 +0000 http://strata-sphere.com/blog/?p=6124#comment-388294 Cochino, In addition to the lie about Iran, how about the lie that Dr. Kissinger supports his position on meeting the leader of Iran, something Dr Kissinger denied within the hour after the debate. Have you seen any comments about it? You can also add to the lie about Iran during last night's debate the lie that Obama supports Anti-missile defense, something that he is on record, including videotape, that he would cancel should he become president. Cochino,
In addition to the lie about Iran, how about the lie that Dr. Kissinger supports his position on meeting the leader of Iran, something Dr Kissinger denied within the hour after the debate. Have you seen any comments about it?
You can also add to the lie about Iran during last night’s debate the lie that Obama supports Anti-missile defense, something that he is on record, including videotape, that he would cancel should he become president.

]]> By: MerlinOS2 http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6124/comment-page-1#comment-388291 MerlinOS2 Sat, 27 Sep 2008 23:32:04 +0000 http://strata-sphere.com/blog/?p=6124#comment-388291 The reason for the positions Obama takes is simple. He believes dems will vote dem rather than cross over or sit out. What he is relying on is the SEIU/ACORN registration drives for new voter and most of them college kids. He is aiming for the college kids to be the make or break here and a lot of his message is playing to the FaceBook/MySpace crowd. But unless I miss my guess the seniors are going to be more of a problem for such a left wing positioning than his internal polling is revealing. The reason for the positions Obama takes is simple.

He believes dems will vote dem rather than cross over or sit out.

What he is relying on is the SEIU/ACORN registration drives for new voter and most of them college kids.

He is aiming for the college kids to be the make or break here and a lot of his message is playing to the FaceBook/MySpace crowd.

But unless I miss my guess the seniors are going to be more of a problem for such a left wing positioning than his internal polling is revealing.

]]> By: crosspatch http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6124/comment-page-1#comment-388288 crosspatch Sat, 27 Sep 2008 22:28:00 +0000 http://strata-sphere.com/blog/?p=6124#comment-388288 The polling ratios should reflect the actual poll turnouts. In other words, of all voters casting a vote in the last two elections, if 52% were Republicans, 48% percent Democrats, and the remainder Independent or Other, then the polling should be the same. It doesn't matter what voter registrations are, that assumes that everyone registered votes. They dont. Younger voters who are more likely not to vote are generally registered Democrat. An example on the other side is our troops. While they seem to overwhelmingly support McCain, less than 10% of the military actually casts a vote so their voice in polls is pretty much meaningless. They don't vote so their opinion matters little. Look at actual voter turnout party breakdown and use that. That is what Rasmussen does. The polling ratios should reflect the actual poll turnouts. In other words, of all voters casting a vote in the last two elections, if 52% were Republicans, 48% percent Democrats, and the remainder Independent or Other, then the polling should be the same.

It doesn’t matter what voter registrations are, that assumes that everyone registered votes. They dont. Younger voters who are more likely not to vote are generally registered Democrat.

An example on the other side is our troops. While they seem to overwhelmingly support McCain, less than 10% of the military actually casts a vote so their voice in polls is pretty much meaningless. They don’t vote so their opinion matters little.

Look at actual voter turnout party breakdown and use that. That is what Rasmussen does.

]]> By: Jacqui http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6124/comment-page-1#comment-388240 Jacqui Sat, 27 Sep 2008 21:25:45 +0000 http://strata-sphere.com/blog/?p=6124#comment-388240 AJ I know this is unrelated to this post but wondering if you have any more info on what is going on in MO with Obama campaign trying to use law enforcement to silence critics. Just saw the press release from Mo Gov Blunt. http://governor.mo.gov/cgi-bin/coranto/viewnews.cgi?id=EkkkVFulkpOzXqGMaj&style=Default+News+Style&tmpl=newsitem AJ

I know this is unrelated to this post but wondering if you have any more info on what is going on in MO with Obama campaign trying to use law enforcement to silence critics. Just saw the press release from Mo Gov Blunt.

http://governor.mo.gov/cgi-bin/coranto/viewnews.cgi?id=EkkkVFulkpOzXqGMaj&style=Default+News+Style&tmpl=newsitem

]]> By: cochino http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6124/comment-page-1#comment-388186 cochino Sat, 27 Sep 2008 17:53:25 +0000 http://strata-sphere.com/blog/?p=6124#comment-388186 AJ, This is coming up again and again. Perhaps the information on party affiliation is correct. If so (and it really is something along the lines of 41-27, Dem-Rep, I think we can all go home now and concede defeat. You are regularly having polls now showing Dems up 8, 10, 12 percent over Reps in party affiliation. Again, if true, it's over and McCain has no chance. However, it would be absolutely unprecedented. There have just been a few articles written about this in the past week (sorry, no links, because I can't remember the sources). I believe the maximum spread in an election year, based on exit polling, looking back over the past 35 years, is 4% (Dems over Reps). In 2006, a year when Dems made big gains at the ballot box, polls were regularly coming up with 7, 8, over 10% more Dems than Reps in affilication. Exit polling showed it to be around 3% on election day. Then again, I don't think Rasmussen uses such heavily skewed samples and they show Obama up by 6% today. Go figure. In an unrelated issue, how is it that Obama can seemingly get away with saying that he has never been in favor of meetings at the Presidential level with the leadership of Iran? This is as blatant of a lie I've seen in a political campaign and demonstrably so- from video of him saying it to old screen captures from his website. He lied outright on national television last night. Amazing. AJ,
This is coming up again and again. Perhaps the information on party affiliation is correct. If so (and it really is something along the lines of 41-27, Dem-Rep, I think we can all go home now and concede defeat. You are regularly having polls now showing Dems up 8, 10, 12 percent over Reps in party affiliation. Again, if true, it’s over and McCain has no chance. However, it would be absolutely unprecedented. There have just been a few articles written about this in the past week (sorry, no links, because I can’t remember the sources). I believe the maximum spread in an election year, based on exit polling, looking back over the past 35 years, is 4% (Dems over Reps). In 2006, a year when Dems made big gains at the ballot box, polls were regularly coming up with 7, 8, over 10% more Dems than Reps in affilication. Exit polling showed it to be around 3% on election day. Then again, I don’t think Rasmussen uses such heavily skewed samples and they show Obama up by 6% today. Go figure.

In an unrelated issue, how is it that Obama can seemingly get away with saying that he has never been in favor of meetings at the Presidential level with the leadership of Iran? This is as blatant of a lie I’ve seen in a political campaign and demonstrably so- from video of him saying it to old screen captures from his website. He lied outright on national television last night. Amazing.

]]> By: Terrye http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6124/comment-page-1#comment-388185 Terrye Sat, 27 Sep 2008 17:51:31 +0000 http://strata-sphere.com/blog/?p=6124#comment-388185 The polls have been odd. Conflicting results and all of the claiming margins are error at about $%. I also wonder about the undecideds. Who are these people? They go up and down and in and out. The polls have been odd. Conflicting results and all of the claiming margins are error at about $%.

I also wonder about the undecideds. Who are these people? They go up and down and in and out.

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