Sep 30 2008
While all the national and state polls out since the first presidential candidate debate have been going Obama’s way, one poll out today is bucking the trend. And I am really surprised at which poll it is – the ABC News/Washington Post poll from after the debate. As with all polls it is more important to keep and eye on the trends in a single poll so that you compare apples to apples. All recent polls show a shift towards Obama – but this one shows the complete opposite, and in some surprising areas.
Here’s some key numbers to ponder (parenthesis show McCain edge or deficit). First the bottom line on likely voters:
- 9/29/08 – Obama=50, McCain=46 (-4)
- 9/22/08 – Obama=52, McCain=43 (-9)
From a 9 point lead to a 4 point lead on one week, cutting Obama’s lead in half and into a statistical tie. That is a lot of movement in one week, and in the total opposite direction of all the other polls. Â Now the bottom line on registered voters:
- 9/29/08 – Obama=49, McCain=45 (-4)
- 9/22/08 – Obama=52, McCain=42 (-10)
A ten point lead down to a 4 point lead in one week, an even steeper decline. Other stunning internals:
- Independents: Obama=45, McCain=48 (+3)
- White Women: Obama=43, McCain=54 (+11)
That deficit in the women’s vote is not good for Barack at all. Â And some other trending numbers on specific issues which took me totally by surprise. First, the economy
- 9/29/08 RV – Obama=50, McCain=43 (-7)
- 9/22/08 RV – Obama=53, McCain=39 (-14)
Again, Obama has lost half his lead, in one week, on an issue that is supposedly an Obama strength – if you listen to the liberal news media! How did he lose half his lead in one week?
Now how about views on fixing the financial crisis:
- 9/29/08 RV – Obama=50, McCain=40 (-10)
- 9/22/08 RV – Obama=51, McCain=38 (-13)
I am simply stunned Obama is not gaining here, but at least his loss is contained on this issue. Now how about something outside Obama’s strengths, like Iraq:
- 9/29/08 RV – Obama=45, McCain=50 (+5)
- 9/22/08 RV – Obama=49, McCain=45 (-4)
What’s up with this? A 9 point swing in one week and total reversal of positions? There are other stunners here, but clearly this poll is bucking the trends of the other polls. Then again, it was the first to detect the Obama bounce coming during the pre-debate period if you look back to the 9/7/08 numbers. Back then McCain was leading. Is this a harbinger of another future drop in the polls for Obama? Or is it just an aberration, an outlier?