“Note the D-R-I split on “all voters” is 43-36-28. ”

It is generally less confusing to your audience to match the graphic to the text in that the WSJ graphic shows the sequence of D-I-R and you reordered it to D-R-I.

I don’t think anyone is forgetting the markets, in fact I think Obama is cheering on the collapse. It was really kind of lucky for him.

I read the story in the WSJ today. Interesting that the conservatives are 37% of the poll and Republicans are only 36% of the poll. It would seem that party affiliation is way off also because the “I” is only 20%. I think the “I” should be btw 25-30%. Rasmussen only has the “D” at 37%. The poll is suspect because it may take leaners into account and then took too many democratic leaners.

On the Liberal-Moderate-Conservative split, it is quite interesting that the 23-36-37 adds to 96. What? 4% are on the moon. Since moderates are the ones on the fence, lets add the 4% to the moderate column. That makes it 23-40-37.

Now the problem for a pollster is which way does the 40% lean. You have to choose the proper center/left to center/right split in your poll to be accurate. Now I know that Survey/USA does publish the policy preferences of its sample. However you need a five bucket survey to be accurate. Liberal, center/left middle center/right conservative. I would be happy with a four way survey since I believe the true middle is lightly populated (less than 5%). I would think that the split is not 20/20 but more like 25/15 left. BTW, if you plug in those numbers you get 52-48. That looks like the 2004 election.

I don’t recall poll results going into the 1994 elections but I do recall the MSM at the time in a state of shock following the outcome. This leads me to wonder whether the poll results at that time may have similarly provided false hope to Democrats back in 1994. If this is true, then it may provide insight into how and why the same could be true today.

You wrote: Note the D-R-I split on “all voters” is 43-36-28

That 28 is actually 20.

Not nearly as important a story as the latest polls, though.

I’m not sure what the market decline will do to the election…the Dow is down several hundred today, indicating that perhaps the “desperately needed” bailout was not so desperately needed.

And both Obama and McCain are throwing the Big Bombs at each other. This is going to get VERY ugly. The good news is that Obama has more skeletons in his closet, and it’s my understanding that the total funds available to McCain (his campaign and the RNC) are nearly twice Obama’s budget. The bad news is that Obama has the propaganda press providing free publicity for him.