Jun 01 2005
EU Impacts of No Vote
The Fourth Rail has a detailed analysis of possible and maybe likely fallout from the French rejection of the EU constitution [hat tip: The Bernoulli Effect].
The cause of deeper integration may not just be stalled but could actually retreat as the heads of 25 nations must rethink a “more perfect union”. The French failure and likely Dutch government failure to ratify the constitution may have significant political, economic and military implications for the rest of the world.
Mr. Chirac’s second goal is to protect the French socialist system, which includes 35 hour work weeks and social benefits that are richer than most, if not all, in the EU.
With 10.2% unemployment in France and a projected growth rate of just slightly over 1% for 2005, compared to the US projection of 3.6% growth The impact the “No” vote will have on the rest of Europe and the goal of political integration will be played out in the coming months and years.
While the analysis is quite good, I am not sure all of these negative results will come true or will be as severe as they are portrayed. Until Europe deals with its failed economies and socialist policies they will continue to fall behind the US. The EU needs to scrap that disaster of a constitution and generate one that allows for direct elections of an EU government in line to what we have in here in the US. It then needs to have some frank discussions with its people so they begin to understand their cushy little world cannot survive in a cocoon in this global market place.
There will be more turmoil required before the people see the light. But will the European leaders have the spine to tell the people like it is?
I think the problem with the French lies in their culture. If one wants to be “French”, he or she can be, the French assimilation is very easy (unlike the English where if you aren’t English, tough luck!). The believe making an initial push for the EU to gain power will increase the French influence, and how wrong they are and were. Also, many of the economies of the EU members are very old and still have bits of socialism, so creating a federal organization that is capitalist in nature is not an easy task. And I agree that huge changes must happen to fully legitimize the EU. The EU so far seems to be fairly successful, especially when UK and Germany joined.
Interesting point about French assimilation. My experiences in Europe have been limited to UK and Germany mainly and they do seem to have the barriers up more. I agree with you on the prime driver being French influence, which probably helped it fail. If their interest had been a strong, united EU maybe the results would have been different. The ties to socialism is the real problem though. The EU in its current form is better than before, for sure. But somehow leaving out the ability of the people to elect the federal government seemed to be key missing factor in the constitution. The EU is now a treaty organization pretending to be a government. The EU is not dead, the wrong headed vision that had been developed in this constitution was. Hopefully the phoenix will arise from the ashes.
Thanks for posting.