The following Associated Press “test” election results, marked “NOT FOR PUBLICATION”, were, presumably accidentially, released on the International Herald Tribune website at

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/09/30/america/Elected-All.php .

The IHT is owned by the New York Times Company and is in practice the “international” version of the New York Times.

The list likely represents a test of AP’s election coverage system, with its predicted headlines having been written well in advance. The document was obtained by Wikileaks staff after a tip off from a reader.

This is exactly what makes these national “polls” ridiculous. Their internals nearly always show many more democrats sampled than republicans (often more than 10 points!!). So these polls are not a true sample of real America but merely a cartoon of a fake America contrived by the pollsters.

As I’ve said before, John McCain simply needs to take the majority of the independents in the battleground states and he wins…

If there was a shift of one third of the indies, one would expect to see at least 10% of the GOP (moderates) go with them.

This is a bogus poll for gullible friends Breschau and Conman to swoon over!

Based on the historical track record for the last ten years in terms of self-identified party affiliation from actual exit polls, the distributions are as follows: 38.4% Democrat, 35.8% Republican, 26.0% Independent, with only 2.6% point advantage for Democrat. And if we specifically use the exit polls from the last four presidential elections, the results are as follows: 37% Democrat, 35% Republican, 28% Independent. – Elwin Tobing at American Thinker

Think about it.

Teams tied top of the 5th, final game of a tied World Series, what’s the feeling, what’s the thinking? What are the questions?

Now try bottom of the 9th, one side up 5 runs, would the winning team be on the mound debating the scoreboard with the other team?

They say “the proof is in the puddin’” and there’s a whole lot of puddin’ here tonight, folks.

wonder what the polls would look like if Obama’s core supporters ever found out that Biden:

“led the charge in the Senate for passage of the 1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act, which — among its numerous notorious provisions — re-established mandatory minimum sentencing for drug crimes, expanded the use of federal asset forfeiture laws, and established the racially biased 100-to-1 sentencing disparity for the possession of crack versus powder cocaine. …

Biden is also a staunch supporter of U.S. anti-drug efforts abroad, such as Plan Columbia and Plan Afghanistan, and has even espoused for the use of mycoherbicides such as Fusarium oxysporum — a genetically engineered fungal plant killer — in illicit crop eradication efforts. (Fortunately for the planet, more rational minds — at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, of all places — nixed the idea, deciding that the deliberate spread of such toxic pathogens would be unsafe for the environment.)

In recent months, Biden has called for a nationwide smoking ban, …”

source: http://www.greenchange.org/article.php?id=3200

Nationwide smoking ban? That’s 23% of voters! Someone should email NC and VA.

A poll is only as good as its assumptions.

It’s certainly true that if Democrats show up at the polls in much greater numbers than Republicans do, Obama will win the election.

But none of the pollsters are publishing the details of why they think that Democratic voters will have such a huge turnout advantage (more than twice the greatest turnout differential in the last 28 years).

Could it be that ACORN’s 1.3 Million new registrations of Mickey Mouse and Tony Romo are factored into that assumption?

Among 944 likely voters, the Kerry-Edwards ticket led Bush-Cheney 50 percent to 46 percent. The Oct. 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Not much different than what Rasmussen is showing right now.

And Rasmussen’s tracking poll on October 4, 2004 had Kerry ahead 48.4% to Bush 46.4% .

You have made several points about recent polls that point to the disparity in Democratic/Republican representation. I have a a couple of simple questions:

Do you honestly think that the party affiliation in the country amongst those two is 50/50?

If so — why? Can you give one piece of evidence that supports that assertion?

If not, what do you think the current distribution is?

And if not, what affect should the difference in your distribution vs. the distribution listed in the polls (actual and weighted) have on the reported numbers? Would it change any of the polls from “pro-Obama” to “pro-McCain”?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1014.html

Yawn. They pull this same crap every 4 years. They’ll follow up with excited exit polls showing Obama up by double digits, just like they did for Kerry — we can only hope Obama does as Kerry did in the real world of ordinary citizens that don’t want the government to take over every aspect of their lives.

Regardless of the outcome, the integrity of CBS, et.al. has long since been at the bottom of the dumpster.

As to what I can do, it is no more than what I have done and intend to do. I will vote for John McCain on November 4. Between now and that date, I will devote what time I can to working in his campaign. I will speak to as many people as I can about the issues in this election, and above all about the overriding issue of the character, political style, background, beliefs, and associations of Barack Obama.

More than that, no one can do.

The CBS poll is designed to discourage Republicans from voting by giving the impression that it is a lost cause. It is designed to get Obama elected by giving Republicans a psychological path to apathy.

The last time I got an opinion pollster calling me, several months back, I told her I was going to vote for Obama. She said “oh, good!” which lead me to believe it was some Democrat outfit doing the polling. I said something along the lines of “Yeah, I am a life long Communist and it is good to see someone from such strong socialist stock finally making it to a position of power. Besides, the Socialist Workers Party has endorsed him. Too bad he has to cover as a Democrat”. She sort of went apoplectic and didn’t really know what to say after that.

But what can you do? They can say anything they want (free speech). If they want to say Obama is 14 % points ahead, no one can stop them. The question they must ask themselves is if everyone else is saying 3 – 10%, will they look pretty foolish? Of course they will! They obviously don’t care anymore. Moreover, when the polls start to tighten up as they always do before the election (professional pollsters want to be close to the actual result, after all), then Obama will appear to have fallen like a stone – not the momentum you want going into election day!