Oct 16 2008
Listen To Obi-Wan, And Watch Those Polls! – Updated!
McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!
2nd Major Update: Did Obama commit a fatal unforced error when he let slip his liberal/socialist plans for redistributing wealth?
This is still a center-right country, gang. Note this Gallup poll from June:
When given a choice about how government should address the numerous economic difficulties facing today’s consumer, Americans overwhelmingly—by 84% to 13%—prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans.
Emphasis mine. Obama has had to pretend to be something he is not to try and con the moderate middle he is not who he really is. It was inevitable he would slip up, especially if he thought he was unstoppable.
Major Update: OK folks, according to Gallup, it is now official – Obama is slipping in the polls. In a little over a week Obama’s +11% lead has been nearly cut in half to +6% with registered voters. But what really has me jazzed is the traditional turnout model poll shows a tie race:
Â
Note how the pro-Obama model simply reflects registered voters, which always trend 3-5% below the final election day numbers. Â The only question is whether Obama gets a boost from the debate. Even if he does get a bounce it may not be sustainable. Â If he doesn’t then expect the left to go nuclear. The next week is going to be interesting. – end update
Jim Geraghty is getting a lot of good news today after the debate, especially from the master political guru he refers to Obi-Wan Kenobi (H/T Reader Frogg). Â You can go there to read the sage advice, but there are other indicators that O-Bomba may be faltering as we go into the home stretch (as I predicted would happen):
The second bit of good news for McCain is comes from a source in the Midwest, plugged into various GOP operations, who told me that “key metrics†in “bellweather areas†of Ohio are showing very favorable McCain numbers and that these indicators may also signal important metrics for Pennsylvania, esp. western Pennsylvania. This source has no illusions, and is worried about other states — the same ones you and I are worried about when we look at an Electoral College map — but those two states are looking surprisingly strong for McCain, with some evidence that the same folks who were skeptical of Obama in the Democratic primary are still not on board and may not ever be on board.
If Ohio and Pennsylvania turn, so will Virginia and Florida and a lot of other states. The other interesting piece of news from Jim is this:
Another state-level GOP guy I talk to regularly says that what he is seeing in internal polling lines up with the commentary you see in this RedState post, purportedly from an Obama campaign internal pollster, indicating that they are “very worried about how Palin appears to be energizing whole groups of people who don’t typically get energized about politics, precisely because she appeals so strongly to the middle class, as well as women and dissatisfied republicans that stayed home in 2006.”
…
I say all of this because this pollster conveyed strong concern about their standing going into the homestretch. They are very concerned about winning the vote of the middle class and whole swaths of the electorate they consider the “unkowns.” In fact, and based on her conversation with this internal pollster for Obama, he’s not ahead in the polls as we’re being told. He’s at best tied.
I have been saying for weeks now that Palin would be the magic bullet, that she was pulling in crowds that rival or beat Obama’s. And I keep going back to the hard data that shows her debate was the all time most watched debate in election history (if you add in C-SPAN and/or PBS viewers).Â
And I can point to other indicators as well. Â The Battleground Tracking Poll shows Obama losing half his lead in the span of 3 days (from +13% down to +6%). If McCain can gain 3% a week running up to the election Obama loses. Note: State polls will lag national polls in detecting this shift, so don’t expect to see movement until next week at the earliest.
Rassmussen’s Daily Tracking Poll shows the same sagging support for Obama over the last week, going fomr +8% to +4%.
I am awaiting the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll to see if the trend is as wide spread as I think it is.
As I noted yesterday the key is turnout. All these polls assuming the right will stay home, Sarah is not a factor in energizing new voters (and she is, trust me on this one) and the Dems are immune to the anti-DC mood of the country are probably way off base. Since it is clear Americans are not tying McCain to Bush anymore – made clear in last nights debate and focus group responses – Obama may have peaked too early and come off to aloof to hold the magic. McCain-Palin are taking the anti-DC movement from him piece by piece.
We are a nation of Joe The Plumber and Sarah Palin voters, and Obama has ceded his mantle as the agent of change for these regular folks. The Reagan democrats and independents are possibly moving to becoming McCain-Palin democrats and independents.
McCain wants to change DC, Obama wants to change America!
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan
The Rasmussen numbers are much, much better than you think.
Obama’s up 4% in the “including leaners” category, but he’s up only 3% in the initial “who will you vote for” category.
And Rasmussen follows up with a question about whether you’re certain of your choice, or might change your mind before election day.
McCain and Obama are TIED among those who are certain of their vote: 41% to 41%.
And these numbers do not take into account any reaction to the debate last night, where I really believe McCain made strides.
I think we’re going to see some really, really pleasant polling numbers over the next week, with just two weeks to go before the election.
Add to that, as we close in on November 4th, many of the polling organizations will be “tweaking” their turnout models — because when looking at past years to figure out how well different pollsters do, we tend to look at their final pre-election poll. So however many games the pollsters may play to boost Obama three weeks out, they are going to want to get things closer to reality by the last week in October. This alone would produce momentum in McCain’s direction.
If you can’t tell, I’m fairly excited. The last couple of weeks have been painful, but I’m starting to be optimistic again.
ACORN is a big deal.
Obama laughing about voter fraud at the debate has to have hurt him.
And make no mistake, telling Joe the Plumber that he wants to redistribute wealth was a huge, huge blunder. And McCain played it perfectly — he only mentioned that once, but mentioned Joe the Plumber over and over. This means the news media is going to be harping on Joe’s story — and the “spread the wealth” quote is going to get wide play, even if only indirectly.
For all the screaming we hear about how McCain is throwing the race, I continue to be astounded by how well McCain is fighting. He’s fighting smart, spinning out a couple of narratives and themes, but doing it so subtly that the news media, as in the tank for Obama as they are, is helping him do it.
Political science majors are going to be studying the art of political judo, as practiced by President John McCain, for decades to come.
Just heard from one of the alphbets that Joe the plumber does not even has a plumbers liscense even though since he works for someone else he doesn’t need one.
Looks like the media is going to try to” Bork” or “Palin” Joe the plumber!
That could be the final nail in the Obama coffin, trying to silence another regular American! The elitist snobs will not go down without fighting for their socialism!
Gallup is out. here
And the “traditional” likely voter standard has it a 2% race (49-47).
Again, this is before Joe the Plumber and as ACORN just picks up steam.
Obama is in serious trouble, money or no money.
Am I hearing correctly ?… At http://www.powerlineblog.com/ they have a McCain ad and he says towards the end…
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…”MORE taxes and less spending… ”
.
at about the 41 second mark??
.ahhh… he is saying LOWER taxes… but it sure sounds like MORE…
People are creatures of habit. If you want to know B Hussien Obama’s game plan, just look at how he helped his “cousin” and fellow tribe member, Odinga, in Kenya. They cooked the polls to make it look like Odinga had a big lead. Then, when he lost, his Muslim backers cried, “stolen election” and took to the streets, killing non Muslims and Burning Christian churches. The violence did not end until after the UN, aided and abetted by Condy Rice, forced the elected President to share power with Odinga. Has George Soros paid the polsters to give him the results he wants? We have already had three top Dem. advisers, including James Carville, warn that BO’s followers may react violently if the “election is stolen from him.” After all he leads in the polls and if he loses it could only be because white racists stole the election from him. Never mind that it is his camp that is out committing voter registration fraud on the biggest scale known in history. They have even out done LBJ and the Daly machine to shame. .
I don’t know about the rest of you but I am going to stock up on ammunition for the coming racial war in this country. We are already hearing hints of a “minority” uprising if ‘the electon is stolen from Obama” and I don’t think Joe the Plumber and the rest of us like him are going to sit back and let BO take half our hard earned income and redistribute it as Reparations for Slavery and other handouts like “tax cuts for people who don’t pay taxes.”
Does anyone think BO would call out the military and National Guard to protect white people from “justified attacks perpetuated by peoples who have historically suffered such discrimination and abuse at their hands?” If you do I have a bridge to nowhere I’d like to sell you.
So Bend over Whitey. You are going to get it whichever way this election goes.
AJ
NewsBusters has a great analysis up of the ‘new and improved’ Gallup Poll.
Seems that between their ‘traditional’ and ‘expanded’ likely voters the expanded version is picking up people 86% of who will vote for Obama.
What has me worried the most is the sense of defeatism that I’m seeing among some conservatives. Not all, but enough to make me worry that we may have a majority…but that they won’t bother to show up and vote.
Which bothers me greatly. Because this is not only about McCain, but about all the down-ticket races. Maintaining at least 40 Republican Senate seats so a filibuster can stop the worst of the Dem’s madness. Keeping Obama from claiming a coronation. Retaining hope for the future.
Make no mistake, the propaganda press is determined to drag Obama over the finish line…and part of their scheme is to undermine conservative voters and leave us dispirited for decades to come.
Government tinkering with the financial markets (primarily the mortgage industry) is what got us into this mess to begin with. We don’t need a candidate who promises to tinker even more. The more they “fix” it, the more broken it gets.
Government screws up ANY industry it touches.
Mike M
That is why Obama and the MSM are worried about Sarah Palin. She energizes the Repub Base. All the McCain camp has to do is run and ad with her saying something like “They MSM want you to stay home don’t fall for their trick. GET OUT AND VOTE!”
There are 2 1/2 weeks left, and people are starting to wake up and decide what future they want. If the RNC has some money to burn, I hope they go 24/7 with adds everywhere (though perhaps focusing on the battleground states). And they need to drive home the point that Congress, who has oversight on economic matters and thus is largely responsible for our current economic troubles, is completely controlled by DEMOCRATS! And they should show a chart of the DJIA from Jan 2007 till now.
AJ,
The odds are that this Redstate datum is a rumor going around to keep up Republican activist hopes.
I will however note that it supports a lot of Republican eye witness reports on the effect Palin is having on the activating the local Republican base in terms of short notice campaign event crowd turn out.
The McCain campaign people are not good enough with their advance work for that kind of consistent turn out (10,000 to 20,000 per event) if Gov. Palin was not moving normal folks (outside the Republican activist die hards) to show up and see her. For one thing, you would consistently see bigger crowds for McCain than Palin, if his advanced people were that good.
Gov. Palin has consistently had larger crowds than both Obama and McCain. Palin even got a huge crowd _in Maine_ while attempting to win McCain a congressional seat electoral vote.
Come to think of it, that may be where some of those internal numbers that set off Democratic internal pollster jangles.
Maine’s congressional district was a small enough place to get a quick, accurate before and after “Palin effect” internal polling snap shot.
AJ I’m counting on you to be right….I can’t take this anymore!
AJ,
Here is an interesting post from the NRO corner blog:
Still Undecided [James S. Robbins]
The latest IBD-TIPP tracking poll has an interesting datum. All other measures aside, the people without party affiliation are tied at 38%, with 24% undecided. That supports the idea that the election will be decided towards the end, maybe even in the voting booth, when these undecided independents swing one way or another. They will gravitate towards the candidate who exudes optimism, hope, trust, and competence, and away from the candidate who seems out of touch with their concerns or unable to handle the complex challenges of the next four years. We’ll just have to wait to see who is which, in their view.
10/16 02:36 PM
This may be a factor in the Obama campaign’s purported worrying over “The Palin Effect.”
The MSM is going after Joe the Plumber personally. This is a perfect trap. Try to destroy a normal middle class American because he supports McCain. With Palin at least Palin was the issue.
The beauty of this is Joe is not the issue. Joe is not running for office. Joe the Plumber is famous for not what he said but for what Obama said. Obama’s “spreading the wealth around” is the issue. With Palin they could justify their outrageous behavior because she is on the ballot. The MSM will destroy any sliver of credibility they have left if they go stark raving mad over Joe what’s his name (not Biden).
AJ,
I’m a little confused and need some clarification. After weeks of you talking incessantly about how inaccurate the polls are, you now seem to be suggesting that these same polls are accurate today. After dismissing the focus group responses in the prior debates as inaccurate, you now conclude that “it is clear Americans are not tying McCain to Bush anymore” based solely on the focus group’s responses to McCain’s “I’m not Bush” line in last night’s debate.
I want to make sure I understand your theory on polling. If the polls are favorable to Obama, they are inaccurate. If the polls are favorable to McCain, they are accurate. Seems pretty straighforward and easy to understand. It’s funny though, I took a statistics class in college that covered polling data and I don’t remember any theories like yours. Maybe you have a future career in polling?
Don’t worry, ConMan, it’ll all be clear to you on the night of November 4th.
LOL Conman!
Like many liberals you are so math challenged to the point of ridiculous. I have said from day one the polls are tilted to the left because of their turnout models (as Gallup now shows clearly with their two turnout model results).
You can be tilted left with an Obama lead and with Obama losing. I also have said many times the snapshots don’t count, it is the trend that is important. Which is why I waited over a week to post this to make sure the trend was real and not a bad data set.
Too funny! As usual you come in and emphasize why basic math skills are important in life.
I think Joe the Plumber is going to have some impact, because it reminds America that real people have something to say about all of this.
Hot Air has an ad up about him.
Needless to say the left is trying to destroy the man. He made Obama look stupid, so they are going after him.
idiots.
“I think Joe the Plumber is going to have some impact”
I don’t because only viewers of Fox News and readers of political blogs on the right will ever hear of him. It will never get any play on your local TV news, or the news on the radio on the average network station during commute hours. Walk up to the average person on the street and mention “Joe The Plumber” and they will go “Who?”.
98% of America will never hear about Joe the plumber.
The only thing I found locally was a story on the SF Chronicle’s website that says Joe doesn’t have a plumbers license.