Oct 20 2008
Those Crazy Polls …
I am going to keep this short since I want to see a few more days play out, but many polls are now registering a bit of a post debate bounce for Obama – but they are small bounces and other polls are showing more tightening. Â Rassmussen is down, Gallup is up, Hotline Down, Rueters up – its basically a wash (check RCP for specifics).
Bottom line, for McCain-Palin to show some potential we need to see the RCP average drop 2-3 points this week, so we can get a good glide path of support into the election. Here’s keeping my fingers crossed!
Something I am having a hard time understanding is that the CNN poll shows the race tightening but it also shows 11% undecided. Rasmussen, on the other hand, shows things stable for the past week and only 4% undecided. I believe Rasmussen is typical of people who vote regularly and CNN typical of people called at random. In other words, it doesn’t really matter what those 11% of undecideds think because they aren’t likely to vote anyway.
I don’t believe in the polls. I think most republicans will not talk to these people and just hang up on them. The only pollster I have ever “talked” to was a recording that just yes and no very simple questions like what party, candidate you voting for, and your age and zip code. That just lately. Before that I would not talk to them and told them I wasn’t interested and hung up. These polls take into affect that most democrats will vote for Obama. I doubt that is true. There are a lot of democrats who do not want socialism.
However, I am very concerned about the ACORN mess especially in Ohio. We won Ohio handily in 2004 but with the Secretary of State’s shenagans with her holding 200,000 registrations she will not let the registrars legitimize and the Obama college kids registering and voting illegally,I don’t know if we will win it again or not.
How ccn people not see what is going on? How can they not see how crooked the democrats are? How crooked Obama is? Common sense will tell you he is behind this fraud. He has been in the middle of their fraud for years. And as far as I know this is the first year the dems have actually come out and put money going to ACORN in a major bill. This shows Obama’s heavy influence on the dem party.
How about this for an idea. Rush suggested that people vote for Hillary. They changed parties, then changed back. Maybe it started a deception mode among the voters. Fool the pollsters, but on a really big scale. One day Obama is ahead in Ohio, the next it’s McCain. I think there are a lot of people who are fed up with the media enough to blow a hole in everything media including pollsters. Palin has just too many people coming to her rallies, Republicans are seldomly so vocal, this year they are crazy. Palin made 3 stops in Colorado today, thousands at each rally. It feels to me that Republicans are out to show the Dems and media there is more then one way to skin a cat. JUST A THOUGHT. Totally unscientific.
The polls are all over the place. Wapo gives Obama a 9 point lead, Reuters a 3 point lead. According to Rasmussens McCain has taken the lead back in Ohio and Florida.
kathie:
I have thought about that. I have also wondered if the cross party voting has screwed up the party IDs.
Terrye, I heard about a guy that told a pollster that he was for Obama just to screw up the poll. It’s only one guy, but suspose many people are of the same mind? I live in Colorado, I can’t believe that Obama is up by 5. It could be really close but 5? How ever I’m the only republican I know in my area.
Bryon York over heard a reporter ask this question of a guy at a McCain rally. Maybe this is what is happening all over the country.
Someone asked why Munoz had come to the rally. “I support McCain, but I’ve come to face you guys because I’m disgusted with you guys,” he said. “Why the hell are you going after Joe the Plumber? Joe the Plumber has an idea. He has a future. He wants to be something else. Why is that wrong? Everything is possible in America. I made it. Joe the Plumber could make it even better than me. . . . I was born in Colombia, but I was made in the U.S.A.”
Not for a second do I believe that only 4% of voters are undecided. Ten years ago this date, Kerry led Bush by 10 points in the consolidated polls and lost. With Obama leading now by 5 points, I like McCain’s chances.
“Don’t tax me, don’t tax thee, tax that feller behind that tree”,
I think it might be from Russell Long?
I tell all pollsters who might contact me that I am going to vote for Obama just because I really don’t like opinion polls and I would do what I can to mess them up.
Oh, and this isn’t going to help Obama … “Southern California home sales jumped 65 percent in September from a year ago.”
Seems like they are spring loaded to panic. Oh, and the DOW was up over 400 points today and was up over 5% for the week last week. People got better returns in one week of the stock market than they would with the money in the bank for a year.
Oh, the results just in on Nickelodeon’s “Kids Vote” … Obama, 51% to 49%. Think about that for a minute. Obama is supposed to have the youth of America “locked up” … and Obama wins by only 2 points in a decidedly unscientific and pretty much unmonitored poll of kids over the Internet.
I believe this notion that Obama has an overwhelming lead among the young is more than a little bit of projection. Many of these Democrats are remembering how they and the national scene were when they were young and assuming the kids these days are just like they were. Well, enlistment and reenlistment numbers from our armed services should tell these people that this generation of American youth is different. This poll tells me that McCain has an excellent shot at winning this. I would have expected Obama by a landslide among kids considering the anti-Republican and pro-Obama indoctrination they have been getting.