Oct 22 2008
Will The Messiah Falter In Pennsylvania?
Something may be happening in Pennsylvania which could determine the outcome of our pending election:
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate—as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton—return to campaign in Pennsylvania, Rendell told CNN’s Gloria Borger.
…
“I don’t want to be selfish,†Rendell said. “But I’m still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand he’s got demands from 20 different states, but we’d like to see him here.â€
Pennsylvania would be a huge win for McCain-Palin and more than offset a loss in Vriginia and New Hampshire. I have been watching the highly skewed Morning Call daily tracking poll (which samples something like +13% democrats in a state Kerry only took by +2.5%) and I noticed it shows a tightening race here at the stretch. On 10/16 Obama had a +16% lead, that is now down to +10%. I can see why Rendell is concerned.
This poll does NO weighting on historic turnout model or voting patterns. And the Obama lead follows the party ID percentage perfectly (the last poll had +11% Dems). If conservative dems defect (go PUMAs) then PA could slip away from Obama like it did when he faced Hillary there. Is there still hope left? Very much so, but it will require a final push on voting day. No one can stay home on this election.
Update: And there are other indicators out there as well:
Alternate Title #1: Why the Democrats are still very nervous.
Alternate title #2: Why John McCain is touring PA today.
…
State today’s margin (last week’s margin) movement
Interesting. And yet more (from the above link):
Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.
Sean Smith, who is heading Obama’s Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant “went rogue”, and aknowledged that Grant was “reprimanded” for this.
Very interesting …
Update: Some news on early voting shows more dems voting early in many states – no word how many are PUMAs. Colorado shows early voting is equal across the parties, Florida showing strong GOP support. And more interesting news on PA from the NY Times. Pennsylvanians may become really motivated if it is their year to select the direction of the country.
I would have done this if I were McCain:
Look at the county-by-county maps in 2000 and 2004.
Note which counties were changed color between those two elections, either blue to red or red to blue.
Target those counties or regions that include those counties with appearances with Palin and local congressional candidates. The idea being that you want to keep the counties that turned red the last election and win back those which turned blue. Those are counties where voter sentiment is probably pretty evenly divided and an appearance by the candidate can make a huge difference.
As far as I am concerned, it is all over except the actual voting. I don’t think either candidate is going to change any minds among people who have decided. The only real difference they can make at this point is to motivate people to vote who might otherwise stay home. Palin is doing a pretty good job of that, too.
McCain Seeks Pa. Victory Despite Trailing in Polls
excerpt:
McCain campaign spokesman Ben Porritt said he believes it will work.
“When you look at Pennsylvania, there were a lot of folks in the media who said Barack Obama would clean up there in the primaries and he didn’t,” he told FOXNews.com. “His political values don’t suit a vast majority of Pennsylvanians. His welfare economic plan, his position on gun rights and right to life issues don’t mobilize people there.”
Porritt said the campaign’s internal polling shows different numbers from other opinion polls.
“We still feel that as this race comes to the finish line, all the polls are going to tighten,” he said. “We feel we have a strong chance of winning Pennsylvania.”
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/21/mccain-seeks-pa-victory-despite-trailing-polls/
Pennsylvania… yeah, good luck in that one folks, Obama’s gonna take it… too many educated people there…
Here’s another question for you:
Why do world citizens support Obama over McCain 4 to 1?
The president has been called the “leader of the free worldâ€, and while we know (so don’t use this as an answer) that it is our vote alone to cast, many people around the world see the American election as having an effect on their lives, or at least a passing interest.
Lets hope at least one person out there has the ability to answer this question objectively, fairly, and honestly. My guess is that there is not even one person who fits that description here. But then again, this is undoubtedly the same half of America who don’t have passports. Surprise me, someone, please.
Since you dismiss all polls with information counterproductive to your beliefs, go choose another one, any one, anywhere, or visit any other country and see for yourself. Go on… Here it is anyway:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111253/World-Citizens-Prefer-Obama-McCain-Nearly-4to1.aspx
Its just a question. Answer it.
I’m a registrated Dem. in Nevada. I voted the straight Repub. ticket today.
Hey, every party has a pooper… that’s why we invited you, PD2!
Well, there’s always the pretty good possibility that the mainstream
pollsters are simply lying to encourage Republican voter suppression.
That AOL straw poll, now only open to AOL members,
has PA going to McCain 52 – 46. (Barr and Nader got 1% each.)
Overall it gives McCain 428 electoral votes.
Interestingly it shows Californya as a dead heat 49-49.
Sure, maybe it’s wrong. I’m ignoring all polls.
Here it is:
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/straw-poll
[…] AJ Strata makes no secret that he knows he was wrong on his call on the 2006 mid-terms. So he’s especially careful this time around. Strata is blogging this morning about McCain-Palin’s potential in Pennsylvania. […]
AJ,
Don’t count out NH! I live in NH and can tell you it is *** NOT *** a given for Obama. I predict a very close outcome. Remember that both McCain and Hillary won here. Also, remember those “polls” showing Hillary going down to defeat during the primary…ha!
I still wonder when the RNC is going to start an ad blitz….there is enough information for the McCain campaign to win Western Pennsylvania…and if he does that, his strength in middle Pennsylvania will carry the state.
And if McCain can run Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, it’s over. He’s President.
Why do world citizens support Obama over McCain 4 to 1?
Because they understand that Obama is going to put their interests ahead of the American people’s interests.
I will say this much: there really are two Americas. One is increasingly left of center. The other isn’t. Their numbers are very close to equal. They’re becoming ever more estranged from each other. Neither will accept the legitimacy of the other side’s arguments . . . or electoral status.
At some point, there will either be a peaceful secession, or there will be a very violent one.
If a Republican is President at the crisis point, it will more likely be a peaceful secession; about the most that would be said would be “don’t let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.” If a Democrat is President . . . well, slaveowners never really did like the idea of their property leaving the plantation, did they?
B_i_b: Notice on this map how most of Pennsylvania went for Bush in 2004 except for the counties immediately around Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The vast majority of Pennsylvania is Republican country. What they need to do is make some inroads into the urban counties.
I did a quick survey while taking the kids to school today. I looked at lawn signs and bumper stickers. Here is my result:
No Obama lawn signs or bumper stickers. Not a single one.
Two John McCain lawn signs.
No McCain bumper stickers.
About a dozen “Yes on 8” lawn signs. That is a California ballot proposition to define marriage as between one man and one woman.
Note that my neighborhood is primarily Asian, mostly Chinese. It has been my observation that people in my community don’t generally place their political affiliations on display. This community tends to be religious (there are four churches within walking distance of my house) and fairly conservative in that family values are very strong here.
McCain is going to do just fine in this little slice of California.
QUESTION.
Has anyone else noticed the irony of Obama’s poll numbers?
His numbers are supposedly boosted because the economy is in the toilet. Most pundits have pointed this out across the media spectrum. The perception behind this is that Obama, as “heir presumptive” whose “coronation” is touted as “inevitable”, poses economic policies – or at least an economic “demeanor” – that will be better for the economy than McCain.
But if this were true, the litmus test should argue the opposite be equally true, that Obama’s poll numbers, true or false, should help drive confidence in the American economy, especially given how close the election is.
But they haven’t.
There’s a lot at play in the markets to be sure but investor confidence is a huge factor. And based how the markets are behaving, investors aren’t putting a lot of stock in Obama’s policies which clearly are not good for investors domestic or foreign.
Surely, we would see some surge in the market numbers to co-relate with Obama’s numbers by now, given how long he’s been “up” in the polls. But we haven’t.
One of Obama’s biggest schticks is anti-Wall St./anti-Iraq War.
Neither offers any hope of stability in the marketplace, domestic or foreign. America needs investors now more than ever, not less of them. The last thing it needs is to shun investors.
Without investors, there is no opportunity …. and even less jobs. Jobs go where investors go.
The markets aren’t expressing any confidence in Obama’s imminent victory whatsoever to go with the “Obama’s good for the economy” argument, not even in the double-digit spread territory. For weeks now, there’s been no co-relation of investor confidence to Obama’s rising polls.
Of all the charges against Obama, this has got to be the biggest.
Lets see, the stock market was up over 5% for the week last week. Housing sales in Southern California were up 65% from September 2007. Oil is below $70 a barrel. National average gas prices are below $3 a gallon.
Oh, and unemployment claims fell “unexpectedly” last week.
wait, one person says we haven’t seen a surge in investment, but the next guy cites examples about the stock markets up and conditions improving… but nobody says anything about the past several years vs the past few weeks effects on confidence, or influencing voters for that matter… maybe the investors are worried, because of, say, everything that happened under the bush administration, kinda like bankers are skiddish, and are not acting too quickly, perhaps they are waiting to see how everything will play out…? perhaps? yet you are scrutinizing the very information you hold so unaccountable, holding up and waving any shred you can spin in your direction… sounds like lipstick on a pig to me…
btw… Pennsylvania, was red in 2004, except for the population centers of course… my comments were generalizations and unscientific, petty name calling… just trying to fit in… I’m sure McCain is still huge with the Amish, Mennonites and the Quakers, so you guys are good, no worries…
Well, apparently there hasn’t been all that much influence. As much as the Republicans have been bashed over the past 8 years today’s poll from the AP has them dead even.
So yes, I understand that it is important to you that people PERCEIVE things as going horribly and that people run from markets based on those perceptions (“recession fears” as the press likes to put it). But many in the markets operate based on the reality of the situation, not on “fears” of what “might” be.
So a foreigner would think from simply watching our media content that people would be supporting Democrats 10 to 1 here. When in fact despite the hammering in the media the past 8 years, Obama hasn’t been able to manage any kind of clear advantage. That should tell you something very important, b_i_b, that what gets reported in the news may not reflect how the average person on the street thinks and it might be our media who are out of touch with the people.
In fact, looking at the latest numbers, I see the major networks influence slipping even more with even fewer viewers being influenced by their programming. Even with an increasing population, the viewership numbers of ABC, NBC, and CBS news programs continue to dwindle meaning the percentage of Americans whose opinions they are influencing is falling even faster than the absolute numbers.
In other words, the only poll that really matters is the one on election day. And polling numbers now aren’t going to influence how I vote. My vote is going to stay the same even if the polling numbers swing 20% in one day. It just doesn’t matter. And as far as the propaganda you would spout, fewer people are paying attention to it anyway. Those outlets are increasingly preaching to a choir who are “spring loaded” to see things that way anyway. They aren’t having much influence on the people they need to persuade because those people have stopped watching/listening/reading because there is no real news there. It is all just political cheer leading for one side or predictable distortion or bashing of the other side. It is a useless product as far as any real news goes.
certainly… the news media is biased and censored and has grown quite tiresome, I mean, how many flag draped coffins have we seen coming home on the news? people have a right to see the truth, ugly or not, as I’m sure you’d agree…now that would be accurate, honest journalism…
and yes, the results on election day are the only ones that matter… the favorable poll data for the democrats certainly makes sense, given our current predicament, but is by no means any reason to get hopes up… we’ve been burned before and know all too well how that turned out for everyone…
and yes, I agree with you that in the world view, democrats should be ahead 10 to 1, especially considering how poorly the GOP handled things both prior to 2006 and after… but this is a divided country, with most folks towing party lines, I mean, Palin could turn up as being born in Russia and this website would call it ‘foreign policy experience’ and try and suggest the constitution change to allow it…and anyone left ‘undecided’ at this point is well, an idiot…
we’ll see how it all plays out… may the best man win.
“In fact, looking at the latest numbers, I see the major networks influence slipping even more with even fewer viewers being influenced by their programming. Even with an increasing population, the viewership numbers of ABC, NBC, and CBS news programs continue to dwindle meaning the percentage of Americans whose opinions they are influencing is falling even faster than the absolute numbers.”
I for one have totally removed myself from the corrupt mainstream media machine. I do not subscribe to expanded cable (no CNN, MSNBC, ad nauseum) , do not ever buy a national “news”paper or “news” magazines, and only purchase a local paper for local news. I don’t visit their websites or knowingly purchase products from their sponsors. The key is to forever deprive the media garbage generators of any and all income from me.
Through the internet, we already seeing the future of media, a future which allows me to support the news providers of my choice. This will hasten the collapse of the once mighty institutions like CNN and the New York Times…
I live in Indiana and I keep hearing that it is a toss up. Not here it isn’t. In this part of Indiana there are very few Obama signs or bumper stickers. Most of the ones I see are in the yards of party people who get paid to vote Democrat.
As for the economy, the Democrats have been in control of the Congress for the last two years. And since they took control things have gotten worse not better.
Their motto seems to be :Vote Democrat, that party that wants all the power and none of the responsibility.
Right now the Democrats are complaining that the Republicans did not do more to stop them when the Democrats were covering up for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It is not as if they have to live by the same rules they like to cram down everyone else’s throats.