Comments on: Bi-Poller Part II

By: The Strata-Sphere » The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 11_01_08

The Strata-Sphere » The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 11_01_08 — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 21:42:26 +0000

[...] For 10_29_08 The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_28_08 The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_27_08 Bi-Poller Part II [...]

By: The Strata-Sphere » Statistics Is Not Simple Math, And Opinion Polls Are Statistically Dodgy

Wed, 29 Oct 2008 00:43:02 +0000

[...] I noted in my posts on the Bi-Poller world of polls (here and here) if one groups polls by how they treat party affiliation in their final results into two categories [...]

By: The Strata-Sphere » The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_28_08

The Strata-Sphere » The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_28_08 — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 21:37:24 +0000

[...] Bi-Poller Part II [...]

By: The Strata-Sphere » The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_27_08

The Strata-Sphere » The Nightly Bi-Poller Report For 10_27_08 — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 22:55:20 +0000

[...] Well, since I noticed there are two families of polls out there, and only one family will be proven right next Wednesday, I have decided to take the RCP average for the national polls and split it into the “traditional” poll of polls and the “extended” poll of polls. My original posts on what the difference is between the two families of polls are here and here. [...]

By: AJStrata

AJStrata — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 13:05:50 +0000

Neo,

I would not call it voter suppression because I think Obama’s supporters are more likely to not vote if they feel he has it in the bag. There is a reason conservatives do better when we go from polls of ‘adults’ to ‘registered voters’ to ‘likely voters’ – conservatives vote. They take this seriously.

I think Obama runs the bigger risk here. Honestly, I think they are believing their own Kool-Aid induced fantasies.

By: Neo

Neo — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 12:34:50 +0000

So AJ, would you go as far as to call, some of these “tilted” polls, a form of voter suppression ?

By: Frogg

Frogg — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 00:33:38 +0000

Stunning results in early voting in California. Smile redstaters

Sunday, October 26, 2008 at 01:15PM CDT

California has begun early voting already as well as mail-in balloting. The number of people who have gone in to vote in person has been extensive. The results so far prove what we had always suspected. The polls are being proven as totally unreliable. Although the results of early balloting have not been disclosed,of course,how many Republicans and how many Democrats have voted has been revealed.

The results are simply shocking. The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18 point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage !

http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redalert/2008/oct/26/stunning-results-in-early-voting-in-californi/

By: ivehadit

ivehadit — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 23:25:01 +0000

momdear, you are right on the money. As I understand it, o was advising odinga, btw.

There is definitely a groundwork being laid, especially for the cheating, imho. What I wonder is how the Secret Service and the FBI are handling all this. As far as I can see this o and his thugs would not pass one single security check for the White House. Am I wrong?

I wish we could have a commercial with just this: an FBI agent being asked the question-Would o pass the security check?

By: missy1

missy1 — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 22:36:57 +0000

Reading through some of the bigger pro-Hillary blogs, the comments lead me to believe they may have made a decision to give polsters as well as exit polling, faulty information. There have been many, many comments like that in the several blogs I’ve been watching.

In the comment section in Frogg’s contribution above, one commenter worried about riots caused by the incorrect information they are giving out, should Obama lose, and thought they better start giving out correct information.

By: momdear1

momdear1 — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 21:16:53 +0000

They cooked the poll books in Kenya to make it look like Raila Odinga, Obama’s cousin and fellow tribe member, had a big lead, then, when Odinga lost by a wide margin, Odinga’s Muslim allies used the difference in the pol numbers and the elections numbers to go on a Jihad, murdering over 1,000 Non Muslims (Christians) , burning over 800 Christian churches, and leaving over 500,000 homeless. Obama raised over $1 million for Odinga’s campaign, sent his political advisers to Kenya to run Odinga’s campaign, and Obama has a designated Senate stafer who is his “connection” for constant contact with Odinga since the elected Kenyan President was forced to make Odinga Prime Minister. . . What makes any of you think they aren’t laying the ground work to do same thing here? We have already had Dem big wigs, including James Carville, warning of “unrest” and “civil unrest actions” if this election is “stolen” from Obama.. After all, the polls say he has a big lead. People are creatures of habit. If they did it in Kenya, they will do it here. Not only is Bill Ayers one of Obama’s neighbors, but Louis Faranan is also a neighbor. Can we expect “The Army” of Farakan’s Nation of Islam, The New Black Panthers, to lead this civil unrest and declare Jihad on white America? Don’t count it out. The New Black Panthers are well armed with AK47s and other modern equipment. This is just a word of warning. They did it in Kenya and the same people are laying the groundwork to do it here.

We have already had terrorist attacks against McCain’s offices (molotav cocktails, threats, slashed tires, etc.) Secret service agents have been sent to call on people who respond negatively to Obama’s campaign callers, intense illegal investigations of anyone who appears to be publicly anti Obama like Joe the Plumber, and at least one news source has been the butt of censorship for asking questions everyone else is afraid to ask. . Does anyone see a pattern here? Do I fear these people being in control of government tax and law enforcement agencies. You Betcha!

By: rayabacus

rayabacus — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:56:40 +0000

Let’s even say that the “new” weighting model is correct for illustration purposes. What is not taken into consideration in any of this is the “PUMA” or disaffected Dem vote. Hillary commanded 18 million voters in the primary and if just one in four votes McCain/Palin they wipe out the edge in the uptick of party affiliations.

I had hoped that Obama would win the Dem nomination because I believed that no one on the Rep side could defeat Hillary. I still believe that McCain is going to win 40 states and win in a landslide. I don’t believe Obama can win even 70% of the Dem vote and I believe that McCain will carry 95% of the Rep vote and over 50% of the Independent vote.

As always, turnout will factor in.

By: sjreidhead

sjreidhead — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:17:45 +0000

Thanks for the great post.

A note from the wild west of New Mexico: Don’t count McCain out just yet. I’m seeing things here that are rather positive. I’ll be writing more about this on The Pink Flamingo sometime either today or tomorrow.

The very real question is will the overwhelming support for John McCain in counties like Otero, Lincoln, and Chaves be enough to counter the Obama support in ABQ, Santa Fe, and up north.

The media loves to talk about NM being a “swing state” because of 2000, but they never get the story right. McCain can count on maybe 45-50 support in the liberal areas of the state. BUT – in these 3 conservative counties his support is something perhaps 60%.

Of course when dealing with New Mexico, none of this really matters. We’re always the last state to have the final results. There’s a very simple reason for this. It takes awhile to tinker in the cheating to get the results the Democrats want. It will take a good 2 weeks for a final NM count.

SJR
The Pink Flamingo

By: djl130

djl130 — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 19:29:20 +0000

Wow – thanks for reporting this! It is uplifting. After watching Stephanapolous today and Fox with Wallace – I was completely bummed. Really, all the news shows have Obama all tucked into his bed in the family quarters of the WH. Peggy Noonan made me want to barf. My husband and I just drove from NC to Wisc. We drove many back roads and really, there aren’t that many Obama signs. We have theory about the ‘undecideds’. They just do not want to say. I will bet the exot polls are very skewed. Also, look at the levels of early voters – very even, no blow out there for Obama. Keep up the good work!

By: Public Secrets

Public Secrets — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 18:55:19 +0000

Pondering polls…

AJ Strata, continuing his musing over polls and whether they’re really accurate this year, passes on the following intriguing anecdote: I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private……

By: Polls: Obama’s Lead Drops : Stop The ACLU

Polls: Obama’s Lead Drops : Stop The ACLU — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 18:17:35 +0000

[...] Joe the plumber. Gallup is showing the same spread. For some very good optimistic poll analysis see AJ Strata. For pessimistic view points see Moderate [...]