Oct 27 2008

Palin Verses Obama In Northern Virginia Shows Tight Race

Last week Senator Obama came to Northern Virginia – Leesburg to be exact. There he pulled a crowd of 10,000 people (though almost half left before he was even done speaking?). Today Governor Sarah Palin came to Leesburg, VA and also pulled a crowd of 10,000 people. A picture of the event this cold autumn Monday morning from US News & World Report tells the story with a caption:

She’s in there somewhere. Can you find Palin in the crowd? Here the crowd cheered, “Use your brain, vote McCain,” to which Palin said “You betcha! That’s good.” And in introducing “Tito the Builder” and “Jack the Hunter,” she also ripped “Barack the Wealth Spreader” to about 10,000.

So VP candidate Palin pulled the same crowd size in the same Northern Virginia town as Obama – that is amazing. Obama will win Northern Virginia, but if he only pulls off a small win VA will go for McCain-Palin, no question about it.  I want to see the other crowd sizes Palin will see on her 3 city tour of Virginia, but right now this data point tells me Virginia is close, and maybe well within reach of McCain-Palin.

There is no way a VP candidate should be able to compete with the top of the opposite ticket in crowd size, especially if the state in question is supposedly solidly for Obama in the polls. These independent data points can validate or invalidate polls and their statistical models. As of this morning I would say the polls are not being validated at all. The polls showing a huge Obama lead are relying on a huge differential in support between McCain and Obama supporters. Today Sarah was able to show that there is no huge advantage here for Obama, at best he gets a tie.

Which in VA means he will lose this state by 5+% on election day. I am not making any predictions (did that in 2006 and paid a price for it). All I am saying is independent data distinct from polls is not showing a huge enthusiasm gap in VA for The One.

10 responses so far

10 Responses to “Palin Verses Obama In Northern Virginia Shows Tight Race”

  1. DJStrata says:

    I was at the rally this morning. And there was a couple of Hillary supporters in the crowd that said that they were voting for McCain. I only know of the few I was near, but there were probably more. Very good turnout for such an early time and a cold day.

  2. DJStrata says:

    Oh and I have to laugh at how the number at Obama’s Leesburg rally have grown from 10,000 to 35,000. There is no way. I was there and watched them all walk in and walk out. There is no way there was that many people.

  3. joeman says:

    Are you guys living in la-la land?!?!? First of all, the Loudoun’s Sheriff’s office estimated Obama’s crowd as over 35,000 people and that only included those who actually made it onto the park grounds. There were thousands (and I mean thousands because I was one of them) more outside on the streets making their way into the park and didn’t make it into even the parking lot. As for Palin’s rally, the Loudoun Sheriff’s office estimated somewhere between 2-3,000 people. Slightly different than the 10,000 they were expected. In all fairness to Palin, it was a cold Monday morning which would make it difficult to get out supporters.
    But just wanted to point out the ridiculousness of this article posted by AJstrata who obviously didn’t do any homework. I suspect AJStrata will be taking down this article as it is just simply emabarrasing.

  4. Frogg says:

    I wonder why half left before Obama was done??? Strange.

    Obama does bring in a huge crowd. But, it isn’t as impressive to me when I remember that John Kerry brought in 80,000 in places like St. Louis or Portland, etc. in 2004.

  5. joeman says:

    After seeing his initial blog was so off the mark, I doubt anything AJSrata posts is truthful. With that said, I didn’t see anybody leave before Sen. Obama was finished. But I did hang around to see the 5,000 or so that stayed behind to line the streets of downtown Leesburg to send off Sen. Obama and his motorcade about an hour after the event.
    You know when you keep telling yourself something because you wish it to be true so badly? I suspect that is what AJStrata is guility of here. I hate poo-pooing someone on their own site, but couldn’t resist given the outlandishness of the posts. I apologize.

  6. AJStrata says:

    Joeman,

    No need to apologize, some people are just liberal and can’t help themselves. Darwin was right you know!

    ;)

  7. joeman says:

    Not sure why, but I like you, AJStrata. We might even be neighbors. ;)

  8. DJStrata says:

    I was at the Obama rally, and I’m the one who wrote the post. I stood outside the entrance and watched along with a bunch of other McCain supporters a steady stream of Obama supporters walk out beginning 5 min after his speech started and continuing up until the rally was over and the masses left together. And I’d like to know what street was lined with people to send him off.

  9. AJStrata says:

    Joeman,

    We probably are neighbors and a lot of my dear friends and neighbors are liberal and democrat!

    Honestly, I stay an independent because I cannot stand the party purity stuff, but I am pretty consistently right of center. More right than McCain!